Will Obama Start Bombing Syria?

10 Comments

1. 

   Superpole on May 27, 2012 at 1:07 pm

   The short answer: No.

   • 

     Oui on May 27, 2012 at 4:31 pm

     .

     Syria: NATO’s Growing List of Excuses for Intervention

     (Scoop) – One former US intelligence source says: “There’s a big worry that things could fall apart [in Syria] quickly… A big problem can turn up on your doorstep overnight.” Indeed. A big problem can turn up on your Syrian doorstep overnight – especially when NATO powers and their Arab allies have been training, funding and directing terrorist mercenaries to destabilise that country over the past 14 months.

     The campaign of violence in Syria, involving kidnappings, shootings and no-warning car bombs, has gained greater killing power in recent weeks – in spite of and in contradiction to the Annan Peace Plan – as a result of heavy weaponry supplied to Western-backed armed groups from the $100 million war chest set up by the Persian Gulf Arab states and coordinated by Washington.

     As for the “threat of Al Qaeda”, the Western-backed mercenaries running amok in Syria are made up of Islamic extremists recruited from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Iraq, as well as from within Syria Contrary to the Global War on Terror misconception, the US and its Western allies are more often than not working in violent collaboration with Islamists, whether Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Wahhabists or Al Qaeda jihadists, to project Western imperialist interests.  

     "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

     • 

       TarheelDem on May 28, 2012 at 12:23 pm

       The Pentagon is always planning on the basis of contingencies as situations change in the world.  The notion that contingency planning foreshadows intervention is a major failing of critics of US foreign policy.  The Scoop author falls into this trap.

       The Washington Post mentions concern about Syrian chemical weapons.  Exactly what chemical weapons does Syria have and why have we not heard of them before?  And does the US know where they currently are?

       The politics of this election push against having another war.  

       The accusation of Al Quaeda involvement is a common one with challenged Middle Eastern regimes;  there must be more “there” there to be credible.

       And the US stood aside for the Rwanda and Darfur genocides because intervention, like in Syria, would have been too complicated to execute.

       You have US allies Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel all with different agendas relative to Syria.  That in itself is symptomatic of the complexity of making  decisions about what to do.  I suspect the US under these circumstances will do nothing.  And I think the meddlers among Syria’s neighbors will probably back off if there is a serious threat of Syria becoming a failed state.

2. 

   Oui on May 27, 2012 at 3:39 pm

   .
   From the same nations, different persons being vocal drumming the beat of war. Where’s John McCain? Must be present on the Sunday PR talk shows for American entertainment. From Great Britain, it’s Blair Cameron and from France it’s Sarkozy Hollande.

   • Foreign Secretary “absolutely sickened” by the killing of more than 100 civilians
   • Hillary Clinton: Assad and his cronies, whose rule by murder and fear must come to an end.
   • Syria opposition criticises U.N. on Houla massacre
   • Lebanon’s most wanted Islamist terrorist ‘killed planting bombs for Syrian rebels’
   • U.N. Security Council meets on Syria, Russia sceptical

   "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

3. 

   TarheelDem on May 27, 2012 at 4:26 pm

   I agree with Superpole.

   The short answer is “No”.

   Destabilization of Syria has serious regional consequences.  And that is likely why the diplomacy around Iran has become more realistic (and not in the Realpolitik sense).

   The problem with the Yemen model of easing out Bashar is that unlike in Yemen, Bashar is not the key figure in the regime but a figurehead for his dad’s Baath Party leadership.  They own him, not the reverse.

   Asking for Russia to act as an intermediary is just the reasonable diplomacy of the situation; Russia is Syria’s most powerful ally.

   The situation is very complicated; cautious Obama will not approach it with simple answers.

   • 

     Oui on May 29, 2012 at 8:02 am

     .

     Dempsey: Atrocities in Syria Make Military Intervention More Likely

     (Anti-War) – The chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that continued atrocities in Syria could make military intervention more likely, as the United Nations envoy Kofi Annan restarted negotiations in the capital, Damascus.

     In response to the massacre of over 100 people in the Houla area of central Syria, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called said the “horrific” and “atrocious” act could prompt a military intervention, but warned such a policy may cause more havoc.

     “There is always a military option, but that military option should always be wielded carefully,” General Dempsey said. “Because one thing we’ve learned about war, I have learned personally about war, is that it has a dynamic all its own — it takes on a life of its own.” Nonetheless, he said, “it may come to a point with Syria because of the atrocities.”

     Syria being played out between Saudi Arabia and Iran  

     • Members of the shabbiha militia entered Houla from the nearby Alawite villages and killed scores  

     "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

     • 

       Arthur Gilroy on May 30, 2012 at 12:24 pm

       Well of course he supports “military intervention.” He’s the current managing director of U.S. Military, Inc. What else is he going to say if he wants to keep his PermaGov position for the rest of his life?

       Does the managing director of GM support the gradual abolition of automobiles? Hell no!!!

       SELL!

       SELL!!

       SELL!!!

       Bet on it.

       AG

4. 

   Arthur Gilroy on May 29, 2012 at 1:08 am

   In an election year?

   Whaddayou, kiddin’ me or what!!!???

   He…they, his handlers…will parse the poll numbers.

   If it will help his campaign, then he…they…will either do it or make it look like they are doing it but not really so’s they can claim first rights of denial should it backfire.

   If it will not help his campaign, they will either not do it or make it look like they are not doing it but actually bomb the shit out of somebody so’s they can claim first rights of triumph should it appear to be widely applauded among the electorate.

   Or, if The Third Rumsfeld Rule Of Uncertainty should appear to apply here:

   The Unknown

   1-As we know,
   There are known knowns.
   There are things we know we know.

   2-We also know
   There are known unknowns.
   That is to say
   We know there are some things
   We do not know.

   3-But there are also unknown unknowns,
   The ones we don’t know
   We don’t know.

   –Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

   If number three seems to apply…that is, if the poll numbers are inconclusive or in any way confusing…then the only option is to punt and play defense.

   

   He’s the best punter in the business, don’tcha know.

   Them punts is sure hard to handle now, yessaram!!!

   “Pretty little thing, lemme light your candle  ’cause Momma I sure am hard to handle now, yessaram!!!”

   You been had, babies.

   Had.

   From the left rear.

   

   Wake the fuck up.

   AG

5. 

   Oui on May 29, 2012 at 4:47 pm

   .
   Is President Assad using the Sharon defense of innocence?

   Syria: UN Inquiry Should Investigate Houla Killings

   One resident of Taldou told Human Rights Watch:

   “At around 2:30 p.m., the army located on the outskirts of town started shelling the neighborhood. Initially, they used tanks, but after couple of hours they started using mortars. The shelling was coming from the direction of the Air Force military college located at the entrance of Houla. Around 7:00 p.m., the shelling intensified and whole buildings were shaking. The army started firing some sort of rockets that would shake an entire area.”

   “At around 6:30 p.m., just as the shelling intensified on parts of Houla, armed gunmen wearing military uniforms attacked homes situated on the outskirts of town on the road leading to the Houla dam, three survivors of the attacks told Human Rights Watch. Most of those killed belonged to the Abdel Razzak family. Local activists provided Human Rights Watch with a list of 62 dead members from the Abdel Razzak family. According to survivors, their family owns the land and farms next to the national water company and the water dam of Taldou, and lives in eight or nine houses next to each other, two families to a house.”

   Houla’s towns, overwhelmingly Sunni, are surrounded by Alawite and Shia villages, and sectarian tensions have been high since last year.

   Syria 1st-Hand: The Stories from Houla — Playing Dead While Your Family is Killed

   • Who are behind the militia called shabiha?  

   "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

6. 

   Oui on June 12, 2012 at 4:02 pm

   .

   Syria massacres, ethnic cleansing that may backfire

   (Reuters) – As Washington raised an alarm about a “potential massacre” in Haffeh, analysts said they saw little military rationale for the government in the previous killings of dozens of Sunni Muslim civilians in two attacks on other villages in the northwest that only galvanized outrage against Assad abroad and among those in the Sunni majority who have supported him.

   Some said “shabbiha” gunmen from Assad’s Alawite minority, long armed by the elite in Damascus, may be pursuing a campaign to drive out Sunnis to create a buffer zone around an Alawite safe haven of last resort along the coast. It raises the risk of a Yugoslav-style break-up of Syria that would set off tremors across the religious and ethnic faultlines of the Middle East.

   “These massacres are a kind of ethnic cleansing,” said a prominent politician from the Christian community across the border in Lebanon, which saw 15 years of communal blood-letting up to 1990. “They are purging their areas like in Bosnia.”

   “ONLY EXPLANATION”

   The Lebanese politician said only a bid to create an Alawite bastion along the western coastal strip, the sect’s heartland, could explain the killing of 78 Sunnis at Qubeir after that of 108 at Houla. Both incidents have been blamed by rights groups on Alawite militiamen following up after artillery bombardments, which suggested some level of approval within official ranks.

   “This is the only explanation for this massacre which came … in spite of the international reaction,” he said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue.

   “Militarily, there are no important victories the regime is achieving. It shows that they have entered the final stage, which is to start regrouping in their own areas.”

   Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said Assad’s entourage might be clearing a line of retreat in the Alawite heartland as a fall-back position, should they be unable, despite a big advantage in firepower, to hold on to territorial control of the entire country.

   “Definitely they are preparing a Plan B,” Salem said of Alawite leaders, who have fanned fears among the minority group that they face bitter reprisals if Assad is ousted by vengeful Sunnis. “If they are forced to go there, they might need it.

   The Lebanese politician, familiar with the pattern of that country’s civil war where populations that had been mixed then separated in violence, said the repetition of similar tactics, killing women and children, seemed designed to spread fear more widely among Sunnis living close to the main Alawite areas.

   The Alawi Capture of Power in Syria – Daniel Pipes  

   • Erdoğan, Iran, Syrian Alawites, and Turkish Alevis

   Cross-posted from my diary – Our Hawk Running the State Department with USIP Support.

   Just one question, how many special envoys have failed their mission of diplomacy: Frederic Hof, George Mitchell, Richard Holbrooke, Dennis Ross, Marc Grossman and add Susan Rice. Failed missions: Iraq exit, Pakistan alliance, North Korea nukes, Taliban talks, Golan heights, Syria conflict and Palestinian statehood or peace with Israel.

   "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."