With only about 23% of the vote reporting, NBC’s experts just called the recall election for the incumbent governor. Some other races are still too close to call. I can’t say that I’m very optimistic that they’ve made a mistake and called it too early. Since the Bush/Gore election, they’re pretty careful about avoiding that mistake. Still, most of the Democratic areas still have not reported. What I saw in the low population areas and the Republican suburbs was a significant improvement for Walker over his numbers two years ago. That seems to have offset great turnout in Democratic areas. The Exit Polls gave us a lot of room for hope, with voters preferring Obama to Romney by a double-digit margin and participation by union households up substantially. But exit polls are no substitute for actual votes. There is still a lot to sort out tonight and tomorrow. There are four state Senate races and a Lt. Governor’s race. If we can win one of those Senate races, the Dems can take control of the upper chamber and force Gov. Walker to negotiate. So, that’s our best hope now.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
I think Nixon’s Silent Majority may well have rode again tonight.
As it stands, that’s a straight up asswhupping. Between this and 2010, post-Citizens United America is a brave new world.
Agreed. This is going to be normal in the Citizens United universe. I think we have to recalibrate our expectations given the amount of money that the right brings to elections. I suspect that in November, all statewide races that are contested will go to the Republicans. I think that gives them 54 or 55 Senate seats, depending on where Angus King decides to caucus.
I would think our best hope is that the NBC experts are wrong.
Recall vote – a county by county interactive map. It ain’t pretty.
A win in the state senate, even if it happened, would be meaningless. The Republicans enacted a strongly partisan redistricting and there is little chance that the Democrats could hold a majority in November. I’m not sure if the legislature is even still in session. If it’s not, then the Democratic majority would be merely symbolic and would vanish by the time the legislature actually meets.
Wisconsin is now Indiana, with Illinois soon to follow.
I agree. Years of propaganda and the decline of private sector unions has telegraphed this.
Why is Illinois soon to follow? Democrats control Illinois at present.
As a recent refugee from IL, I will say that there is a huge huge issue of pensions in IL, unlike almost any other state. The pension abuses are simply staggering, and exemplified by the ex-mayor of Chicago, and total piece of crap Daley. He was going to have a good pension probably 90K per year. By working one month in a part-time job, he now has a pension of 190K/year, a staggering sum.
The pension obligation in IL is absolutely immense.
And the right will now blame it on public sector unions .. when it is the dicks like Daley fattening their own wallets .. so a DINO will screw over rank-and-file Democrats again .. as usual!!
The pensions in Illinois have been underfunded. There is a problem with the teachers, and they want to change the rest of the state to match Chicago, which, of course, was set apart and penalized years ago. The Chicago teachers, therefore, HAVE been paying what they want the rest of the state to pay…..but, of course, King Richard and his cronies went to the state to get a waver – SO THAT THEY COULD GET THAT TEACHER MONEY …so, even though the Chicago teachers have been paying….King Richard II took their money, and they’re underfunded too…even though they paid the money.
That is only partly true. Yes, the pension system is underfunded. But more importantly, and this is key, is that there are HUGE ABUSES of the system going on EVERY day. That fucking piece of shit Daley sold the parking system to some foreign entity, and then he got on the payroll of the State Legislature for 1 month. This enabled him to double his pension, for almost no reason.
The guy who used to be our school superintendent retired. He got a pension. He then went to work at another school, and double-dipped.
This kind of shit is very wearying. As a Democrat, I look at this and think, “THis is a total abuse of the system.” The “underfunding” is partially (not totally) due to the fact that there are abuses which were not considered in the actuarial setup of the system.
Just last week, the legislature ended without reforming the system. The IL democrats think that they are invulnerable, but I tell you from someone who lived in IL-12 for 12 years, that there are a WHOLE LOT of republicans in IL, and they are getting FUCKING TIRED of the pension abuses. If that system is not fixed, IL can and will go the way of WI.
As a guy who has lived in Illinois for the last 31 years and 59 years total, mostly in Cook County, I heartily confirm that.
Gee, that is funny. I too am 59. What part of Cook County do you hail from, pardner? I’m originally from Arlington Heights, myself, although family members live all over – Naperville, Elgin, Gurnee, Grayslake, Des Plaines.
Actually 66. Seven years out of state. Born in Chicago, mostly raised in Elmwood Park.
looks like we’re not gonna win anything in Wisconsin tonight. I hope we eventually get something of value out of all this progressive effort.
Also, I repeat that it was a mistake to make the recall a mismatch. As I said before, that makes voters have to face that they made a mistake. With a fresh face the race is about Walker, not the voters making the wrong choice before. The numbers 58 to 42 are crushing. Wisconsin is now firmly Teabagger territory. They LIKE smashing public unions.
Well, I think Obama will still win Wisconsin by 5% plus. We’ll do terrible in the off-years. The legislature will probably lean Republican until the next wave election.
well .. according to exit polls .. voters are like 51-41 for Obama .. according to Charles Pierce .. a lot of Obama voters likely voted for Walker because they disagree with the idea of a recall
The exit polls were all wrong, though! They said this was going to be a close race. I’d be very surprised if Obama carries Wisconsin.
But he still leads the regular polls.
You’re out of your mind if you think Obama will have a hard time with Wisconsin, let alone be “surprised” if he even carried it. He’ll win it by 8+, and it shouldn’t surprise if he wins it by double digits.
You’re living in 2008. Wisconsin is a red state now.
No, it’s not a red state. It’s not even purple. Kerry won WI by less than 1% of the vote. Obama won it by 14. Obama will win it by 8+, possibly 10+. Your logic, based on this data, makes zero sense. It’s not trending towards red, or even designated “red.”
Well, the second-place finisher would have been seriously crushed by Walker. The union issue is still alive. Many people are still a little leery of unions, even on the progressive side. She was way too far on the union side.
Ain’t done yet, however. 16% is probably impossible to overcome.
Each Senate race is worse than the Gov race.
Many people are still a little leery of unions, even on the progressive side.
Yup, including some supposed stars of the lefty blogosphere. Example one is Matt Yglesias. You should have seen the Twitter conversation between him, Corey Robin and Mike Elk(among a few others).
Suggests a path to the WH for Willard. $10 billion aught to get him there.
Looks like the Republicans are going to run the table. None of the races are even going to be close.
There can be little doubt now that money absolutely rules and that politics in this country has been turned on its head after the CU ruling.
First, electronic voting machines were designed and are programmed by republican leaning businesses. American lost any possibility of the sanctity of ballot tabulation when they were convinced that hanging chads were a problem.
Americans allow the media to declare a winner before voters have finished voting. Why do we insist a football game has to finish four quarters, or a spelling bee wait to the final contestant- but not an election!
We didn’t have a democracy when the nation allowed slavery. We don’t have a democracy now in a time of immense economic inequality. There is no national or broad citizen will to protect voter tabulation. There is no nation or broad citizen will to make campaigns intelligent, public dialogue. There is no national or broad citizen will to progress toward democracy. Hypocrisy, thy name is USA.
ya know…none of the polls even whispered that this was going to be such a lopsided result. Everyone was talking about how the race was even tightening. Brings back uneasiness of voting machine fraud.
I’d be wary of drawing too many conclusions about this result, one way or another. If my family is any guide, a lot of people back home believe that elected officials should be given a fair opportunity to pursue their agenda, absent some kind of gross misconduct that would disqualify them from office. As bad as he is, Walker hasn’t done that, and I think for many voters there was simply no compelling case to recall him.
But he has .. and the people of Wisconsin will soon find that out!!
Won’t everyone be proud when Walker is indicted!
By the way, there are now more Judicial vacancies in American courts than there were in President Obama’s first year. Republican Senators’ strategy refusing to approve Presidential appointees/nominees should be seen as the self-serving act it is.
but .. but .. but .. Obama is going to bring both sides together .. for the good of every one!!
Forget Kansas ~ what’s the matter with Wisconsin?
Well crushed again.
Not surprised. A little disappointed.
John Lehman won so Dems take back the Senate
What are you talking about? Lehman is behind by almost 3000 votes right now.
No he’s not!!! I guess Racine came in .. or something .. John Nichols Tweeted about the victory
I see it now, final numbers:
D: 36,255
R: 35,476
At the time, I looked on TPM and it said it was updated 1 minute previous, and Lehman was behind big. Now he’s up by about ~800.
http://www.dlcc.org/node/060612/statement_senator_lehman_victory
And that, folks, is Paul Ryan’s district.
A last minute victory pushed a D into office.
So, if I were a deeply conservative multi-multi-billionaire with a mission to destroy the Democratic party in this post Citizens United world on the day after seeing what an 8:1 money advantage did for Scott Walker in Wisconsin, would I still be planning to give $200 million to defeat Obama and other Democrats this fall. Or would I decide to up it to $1 billion, or 2, or 4, or 6?
Or 10?
Because what Scott Walker has done in Wisconsin, by effectively destroying the public sector unions that are really the only source of significant institutional funding for Democrats, is very much the republican model for the nation. Make it structurally impossible for Democrats to compete against the big corporate money that backs republicans. Return us to the days of the robber barons when workers had no way to fight against corporate abuses because they had no collective power.
I know what I would do.
And it scares me to death.
All of this boo-hooing discounts the power of the media.
The national media, which is primarily owned and operated by the only truly non-partisan system still existing in his country Big, big, BIG money. Money on that level is “centrist” in the sense that it does not want waves made that will destabilize anything. It will resist the right just as it resists the left, and it will do so as effectively as it has done since Barry Goldwater’s moment in the spotlight. More effectively, because it has even more control of the sheeplemind in an information-age system than it had back in the day.
Its interest is in control. Nothing more and nothing less. It will re-elect Obama because that’s a less dangerous option than is placing Romney in power (Obama has already proven that he will play centrist ball.), and it will hedge its bet by at least attempting to maintain a stasis system in Congress…effective opposition to anything that the liberal wing of the Dems might want to try to do using the power of the presidency.
Yes, Wisconsin is a red state within its own boundaries. The massive, almost gravitational-level pull of the national media was not brought to bear on the outcome of that race. Why? That’s why it’s called “national” media. It’s too busy with more urgent things, like lying about foreign policy and propping up the world economy any which way it can.
But when push comes to shove, O’bomber will be re-(
s)elected, just as y’all wish.The moral of this story? The real moral?
Be careful what you wish for.
You wanted him; you got him.
Happy now?
AG
I’m extremely happy with Obama. There is no one in this country who I would replace him with. How’s that, Arthur?
Wisconsin is not a red state. It hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Obama won it by 15 points, and the people who voted yesterday would have reelected him if he’d been on the ballot, and by a wide margin.
Only an ignoramus would call WI a red state. WI is, like every state, red in the countryside, blue in the cities, and the balance is held in the suburbs, the college towns, and the little liberal enclaves. IL is just like that. So is MI, NJ, NY, CA, every single state. The red states have more country than city, the blue states have more city than country.
But the balance is the suburbs around the cities, and the smaller cities. Win those, and you win the whole deal.
P.S. Here’s the spin. Straight from the horse’s
ass’smouth. CNN. The Centrist News Network.Kill two birds with one stone. Hurt the unions, support Obama.
Like I said…
Control.
Watch.
AG