Any administration wants to leave certain distinct impressions with different audiences. They will all want to make their own core constituencies happy, while convincing the media and the broad middle of the electorate that they are more pragmatic than ideological. They all want to make their political opponents fearful of opposing them. They will all want to look tough on defense, even if some administrations are most interested in making diplomatic breakthroughs. So, it’s not easy to know what any administration or president “really” feels about things. Making things more complicated, each administration inherits a bunch of ongoing programs and problems from the prior administration, meaning that a huge portion of their initial agenda involves stuff they didn’t even initiate and might not want to continue. Finally, whether an administration is mainly ideological or mainly pragmatic doesn’t matter a whole lot. The balance of powers and the rules of the Senate assure that no president can do anything overly ideological unless they have supermajorities in Congress, and even that might not be enough if their own party is divided.
A good place to start in assessing the true intentions of an administration is to ask yourself what they would have done if the composition of Congress had been different. If Obama had enjoyed a 68 senator majority like Lyndon Johnson enjoyed in 1965-66, would he have had a public option in his health care plan, would he have passed a cap and trade energy plan, and would he have signed off on a humane immigration reform bill? How many senators would he have needed to close Gitmo or go back to the well for a second stimulus package?
Do we have any reason to believe that the Obama administration wouldn’t have taken advantage of this hypothetical supermajority to do any of those things? Would he not have completely filled the absences in the federal judiciary? Would he have had to govern with vacancies on the NLRB, FCC, and Federal Reserve? And, since Obama didn’t have this supermajority but LBJ did, are we entitled to make statements like, “Obama is far to the right of LBJ”?
I want you to keep these two ideas in mind: that all administrations try to create a positive impression with different audiences, and that all administrations are ultimately pragmatic unless they have so much congressional support that they can be ideological.
The truth is that the Obama administration has been frustrated on some of its main priorities, and has had to make compromises it didn’t want to make in order to achieve its goals in every other area. But they’re not going to say that their health care bill is a shell of what they hoped for. They’re going to trumpet all the good things that are in the bill. They’re not going to focus on the mess in Afghanistan; they’re going to point to progress and their commitment to get out soon. They’re not going to rigidly oppose the Republicans’ demands that we dismantle the social safety net; they’re going to make good faith offers that they nonetheless are confident will be refused. They want to appear reasonable in comparison with the Republicans, not as just the other side of an inflexible coin.
The Left just doesn’t know how to interpret this kind of message management and subtle strategy. Too many of us take everything literally. Let me give you an example.
As reported in Ryan Lizza’s recent piece for the New Yorker, the Obama administration has been talking a lot to the press about how a second term might shake out. As part of that, they’ve expressed the hope that having a good election night in November might “break the fever” that has overtaken the right and get them to come to the table with a more reasonable set of demands next year. This hope has been received with open derision on the left because it is assumed that the administration is as hopelessly naïve as they sound. For example, I give you Ed Kilgore:
…what I found striking is Obama’s frequent references to the possibility that a 2012 defeat might change the Republican Party from its current direction of hyper-polarization, 1964-style reactionary messianism, and paranoia. The term he uses with Lizza (as elsewhere) is that “the fever may break.”
While the clinical term is entirely appropriate, I do wonder if Obama really believes it.
Let me be blunt. Not only would it be a bad idea for the president to suggest that our present gridlock might remain unchanged in his second term, that simple idea represents the single biggest danger to his reelection prospects. Mitt Romney has only one compelling argument for his presidency. His platform of programs is unpopular. He can’t compete with the president for coolness or popularity. He didn’t get bin-Laden. His business record is as much a liability as an asset. He’s a gaffe machine. His one and only compelling argument is that he might be better able to work with the Democrats (who, at least, believe in governance) than Obama has been able to work with Republicans.
Never mind the deeply troubling implications of this argument, which includes the idea that no Democratic president can govern this country because the GOP won’t allow it, and that, therefore, we must only elect Republican presidents. It doesn’t matter if the strategy is dishonorable. All that matters is that it might work. In fact, nothing else has much of a chance of convincing people that Romney would be preferable to Obama.
For the president to buy into that idea for even one moment would be beyond irresponsible. It would be borderline suicidal. And, yet, the left wants him to make a variant of that argument. Instead of bitching at him for alleged naïvety, we should be saluting him for his political acumen.
But, sometimes, we’re as stupid, partisan, and bloodthirsty as any tea partier.
Huh. Guilty as charged.
Thanks for the corrective.
I never cease to be amazed at the number of people who’ve never been elected dogcatcher, but who are certain right down to their bones that they understand electoral politics and Washington insider dynamics better than the first black president and his political operation.
I equate to the loudmouths on sports talk radio, each and every one of whom can tell you exactly why Bill Belichick and Doc Rivers should lose their jobs.
You mean like the people who knew that the GOP would obstruct at every turn? And were saying this before Obama was even inaugurated?
I mean like the people who think that they are the only ones who foresaw GOP obstruction.
I mean like the people who watched the debt ceiling kabuki and took every public statement from the administration at face value – because of their superior political acumen, you see.
I love the way they managed to sell so many reporters on the idea that they thought John Boehner could outmaneuver his deputy.
Boehner couldn’t deliver a deal is the official history.
The real history is that Boehner has no power and the White House knew it all along.
Also known as “cold anger”—a phrase Pres. Obama almost certainly picked up in his days as a young organizer with Gamaliel. (See book by Mary Beth Rogers of same title for more.)
I always take what they say at face-value. It’s not my job — nor my responsibility as a citizen — to think that they might be working through other back channels.
Sure, privately I might know that they’re not as stupid/evil as it’s portrayed in your daily newspaper, but I do not care. Praise them when they do what you want, criticize when they’re pulling some bullshit. There’s less disappointment and less making excuses this way. And then when you have someone who cares less about the credit and more about the accomplishment such as the current president, the activists who like to think they made the difference get a pat on the back, and more encouragement to continue advocating and bringing others into the fold.
The problem is that a lot of these idiots like Cenk Uygur not only have “what’s probably happening in the back channels” wrong, but they’ve got it wrong on face value as well.
Not only would it be a bad idea for the president to suggest that our present gridlock might remain unchanged in his second term, that simple idea represents the single biggest danger to his reelection prospects.
Why would it be? Isn’t that a variant on running on the “Do Nothing Congress”? Shouldn’t he make voters aware of what might happen if Orange Julius or Eric Cantor has the Speaker’s gavel next year? Or if Miss McConnell is Senate Majority Leader next year?
yes, but we can’t possibly do well enough to avoid continued gridlock. He does not want to highlight that AT ALL.
And then come a year from now .. people will wonder why crap isn’t getting done.
who cares?
You still are fiddling while the world burns. You think people will be wondering why shit isn’t getting done if Romney is elected? They’ll be in the streets like the whole country is Madison. And we’ll take the same asskicking.
So you think if Willard is elected that there will be protests that make OWS and the Montreal protests look like pikers?
Definitely.
If he tries to do what he’s proposing to do, people will wake up and go nuts.
A really excellent post. I too believe that progressive political ideas and a basic knowledge of civics are not mutually exclusive. In a democracy of the sort that we have, a president needs to be very politically astute in order to function effectively and I appreciate your understanding of this fact.
I have no problem with the partisan and bloodthirsty part of that – that’s the kind of person that I want with me in a fight, and this is a fight. I have no use for the chronically stupid – we all catch an occasional case of the stupids – but I want all of the bloodthirsty partisans that I can get into the fight.
they’re related. Being so politically involved and angry that you just want to score points rather than win the fight makes you stupid.
I see your point, I guess it’s a matter of focus. For me, the more angry I get the more focused I get on my objective, and it’s rarely scoring points in a game where nobody keeps score. That’s one thing I’ve never understood – how telling someone off makes people feel better. So they got told – and? Anything change? No? So what was the point? For me, anger gives me clarity of purpose, a tight focus on outcomes, and the proper strategy and tactics necessary to achieve the required outcome.
Thanks to the GOP and their affiliates, when it comes to politics, like the Avengers’ Bruce Banner, I’m always angry…
This feels like water carrying to me. The way I see it, the President already committed (in actions, not just words) to hardcore partisan warfare.
It’s a little late to back out now and play the sober, pragmatic, statesman card after admitting that he would sooner see every American’s taxes raised rather than see the rich somehow slip out of their commitment to “fair play” once again. The Republicans surely won’t let anyone forget it this fall.
I can only assume this is how the administration wants it. They wrote the damn schedule with all this budget nonsense. They’re the ones treating the tax cut expiration as the ace up their sleeve. Doesn’t this effectively make them hostage takers too? Are they not holding a gun to the head of America and its finances and its credit rating, etc? Yeah. I think so. I think a lot of voters will be persuaded that “hope and change” is given way to “both sides are all alike.”
This campaign isn’t really gonna be a campaign. It’s gonna be a Mexican standoff, and it’s gonna sicken voters on politics in a way that we might well have never seen before. It’s gonna be the “Tax Hiking Class Warrior” vs. the “Party of the Rich Bastards Who Want to Cut Your Jobs and Steal Your Retirement.” It’s gonna be brutal. And it’s gonna be partisan as hell.
And funny enough, it’s not gonna be about taxes or spending at all in the final decision. It’s gonna be about the Republicans driving another entire ethnic group into their opponents’ waiting arms, as they throw whole electoral swaths of the country into the garbage can. There’s no particular sense of how the GOP can plausibly win, but they’ll make damn sure Obama’s victory speech is under the ugliest pallor possible.
I think the idea is that this -is- hardcore partisan warfare. He’s saying, “Vote for me and these fever-swamp Republicans might come to their senses.”
Not only would it be a bad idea for the president to suggest that our present gridlock might remain unchanged in his second term, that simple idea represents the single biggest danger to his reelection prospects.
OK, I’ll shut up about it, at least here — even though it’s true.
(As far as I’m concerned, the reason to reelect Obama is that the four years of gridlock he’ll be subject to if he wins would be the political equivalent of “First, do no harm” in medicine — whereas Romney as president would be the equivalent of one of those “angel of death” medical professionals who kill while pretending to heal.)
Here’s the thing, Steve. You can say what you want about the Republicans. The president and his campaign have to be more thoughtful about whether what they say is a good idea or a bad one. As long as you’re not calling the president a blockhead for not committing political malpractice, I am probably going to agree with what you’re saying. And even if I don’t agree, it would be boring if we agreed on everything.
BREAKING: DOJ Plans To Sue Over Florida’s Voter Purge
I wanna see Rick Scott (and Karl Rove too btw) frog-marched in shackles and handcuffs.
It has gotten personal you know.
I am less and less sure that the Democrats in Congress would work with a Romney administration because they are interested in governance. There is too much money running around DC and too many formerly thoughtful Democrats have walked through the K Street revolving door for me to think there would be compromise for the sake of sound public policy.
Either the fever will break soon or the Democratic Party will be broken by the cynicism. But the fever that must break is the know-nothing attitudes of the public that continues to be led around by the confusion of TV advertising. The public is not really aware of what the Republicans have been up to. They think it’s the same old politics as usual.
I’m banking on ‘broken by the cynicism’. It’s the only really bi-partisan thing out there.
The know-nothing attitudes of the public may be all that holds the country together. The extremes don’t actually believe in politics — on the right, government is what your money can buy, and on the left, government is The Man, and you cannot have any truck with it or you will lose your soul.
I think your hypothetical about the healthcare reform bill fails to consider Max Baucus. And no matter the Democratic majority in the Senate, any healthcare bill had to get out of his committee. Compare the results with what Hillary got out of Daniel Patrick Monyihan on healthcare reform.
You basic point is that political messaging does not reflect honest positions and that political discourse is strategically manipulated. I agree with that. And that very lack of candor is what angers those who you label “the left” — a melange of non-conservative critics, very few of whom could be called The Left. A lot of them are no more than FDR traditionalists, longing for the good old days of the 1930s when the Democratic Party kicked butt for a generation. Forgetting court-packing and McCarthyism and the origins of the Vietnam War and all that.
The other thing about the Presidency that most folks don’t grasp is that it is not an individual effort; it is an organization in which the President is only the first among equals. He depends on his direct reports in the Cabinet, the military, and the White House staff to faithfully carry out their tasks. But as in any organization there is internal political struggles for personal and policy position that mean that despite the Truman boast that “the buck stops here” it really doesn’t unless something goes very wrong. There has been much made of Nancy DeParle’s reported kowtowing language in emails to PhRMA. Did she really have to be so enthusiastic about the deal that they made and the fact that they got the right members of Congress aligned around it? The assumption is that enthusiasm extended up to Obama when it could have been the excitement of a relatively young operative in the White House excited that she was doing big girl things. The same goes with the decisions of the Attorney General. The news reports Obama does this or that when it is merely a decision out of the Justice Department, which has a structurally conflicted relationship with the White House. Was Holder acting independently or with White House knowledge and approval? No one knows until either something goes wrong and there is an investigation or the archives are released decades from now.
What. The. Fuck. That’s downright troglodytic.
I guess that’s what we get for letting them get out of the kitchen, though, huh? Lulz.
Change “Nancy” to “Norman” and turn the phrase to “…excited that he was doing big boy things” and it’s the same sentiment – young’n feeling grown. Nothing more, nothing less.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy-Ann_DeParle
Ex-Clinton official. Rhodes scholar. 55 years old. Probably not one for doing “big girl things”…
Well if that’s the case, then at least she wanted the PhRMA deal to help PhRMA beyond what was necessary to get the legislation through. The reported emails are pretty incriminating.
No one printed Rahm’s emails so I didn’t get to be equal opportunity insulting. Sorry about that.
But the different between maneuvering and being sold out is very thin and in my estimation DeParle stepped over the line.
Point taken. This, then, was an error of fact – assuming the aide was young and made a rookie mistake when there was, in fact, no mistake about it.
The error is a result of reading the e-mails and their positively gushing prose in celebrating to PhRMA that they had lined up the votes to defeat drug importation. The choices are that (1) DeParle either was having a great time shafting seniors or (2) DeParle had the hubris that comes with the self-consciousness of making history (“doing big girl things”).
I chose the more generous interpretation. For a 55-year-old to write like she did actually makes it look worse.
Absent any biographical information on Harriet Miers, I would have assumed from reading her various memos and messages to/concerning W. Bush that she was barely out of her teens, not a 60-year-old woman (roughly, at the time) who somehow got herself nominated to the highest court in the land.
Bingo
Seriously Tarheel Dem?
The insurance industry was spending about 2 million per day fighting the Affordable Care Act. Do you remember the Clinton plan? It didn’t make it out of a single committee–not a one. Do you really think we could have won if we had been fighting pharma money too?
I was on the ground working my ass off as a volunteer spending 25-40 hours per week on this. It was a tough fight and if we had to cut a deal to eliminate a powerful adversary I’m all for it.
Because I don’t have a count of votes in the House regarding drug reimportation, I don’t know how necessary this concession was. DeParle and others on the White House staff made this decision unilaterally; there is no mention of consulting with Congress.
I think the Affordable Care Act was a good first step, but the politics of it were never terribly transparent to the public. Too many Democratic apologists for the insurance industry got cover.
Yes–seriously. Read the DeParle emails (snippet):
why do you find that language disturbing? She’s saying, “here’s your payback for being constructive.” Is that in any way different from what you thought happened?
Boo, do you have this apologia on macro? It seems like you post this same thing every six months.
Pi is still equal to 22/7, give or take.
Every six months.
Apologia or genuine opinion? You report, I decide.
Judging an argument purely by whether it is too favorable to Obama for your tastes is moronic.
Remember, I’e said over and over again, that Obama gave no dog whistles. You have to reassure people.
Also, how did Obama “have” to govern with the vacancies? Good thing you skipped any decent financial reform plan. I agree it will take more than Democrats to do that.
The frustrating thing about this is that the President doesn’t seem to have an adequate pushback operation against the GOP abuses. The word is not getting out to the public; those of us who follow politics closely know precisely who’s to blame for things failing to get done in government–and we also know to what extent those failures reach. The people who don’t know are the same ones who keep throwing elections this way or the other way for increasingly stupid reasons.
When the GOP shouts and screams about Democratic obstruction, or the liberal media (which people still believe in after all these years), that message gets through and eventually takes over. They get away with this time and again without a single fact to back up anything they say.
I’m not suggesting the President himself lead this attack, but there ought to be a more effective war room operation making damn sure the public is at least hearing the real reason why nothing gets done; as it is we’re having to rely entirely on the GOP doing themselves in without any help from our side, which they may eventually do. But it might also be too late to repair the damage by then.
Speaking of that .. and part of the reason why I never understood the whole “President Obama is a political genius” nonsense is exactly this:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/someone-is-going-to-take-blame-for-this.html
I agree with the thesis although it is hard to be optimistic when we every day see that the economy is run for the benefit of the 1%. Infinite bank bailouts are now taken as the foundation of the system. And wall street overlords are now the moral conscience, via Citizens, of our civic life. Austerity is the prime virtue. We can always find ~100 billion large for our friends in finance. But not a penny in stimulus (except for, you know, sweetheart deals with our close friends in petroleum and coal or defense contracting). No not even a penny in stimulus can we countenance. No, not we tea-patriots.
LBJ in 1965-66.
Nearly pointless to speculate this way. First of all the so called democrats we have now (lifer incumbents who are corporate ass kissers) are nothing like what he had during Johnson’s time.
Second, I’ve read two books that are part of Robert Caro’s excellent bio of LBJ– Obama is no LBJ. Not even close.
Why is it a bad idea? Occasionally, democrats are actually realistic. Obama knows he’s going nowhere if the repugs win control of the Senate. so what’s the point? A giant, four year long lame duck session?
And don’t underestimate the dumbness/desperation of the voters, or the clownservative plan here. The voters may for once say F*** it, let’s put Rmoney in there AND vote for repug senators- giving them total control of congress.
I think this has been the GOP strategy all along: get a pro-corporate POTUS, irrelevant if it’s Rmoney or whomever, as long as you get control of congress.
Then Rmoney and congress will finally say, “Gee, we need an American Growth Plan!!” (it won’t be called “stimulus”, but that’s what it will be.) Congress will fund a shitload of infrastrucure projects– creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The crybaby wealthy class will get their lower taxes, fewer regulations, and suddenly move their fat asses off the $1-2 trillion reserve dollars they are sitting on now- doing nothing– suddenly get bullish on America and start investing here, creating jobs.
Why do you think John Boner keeps harping about low taxes and fewer regs? he knows he’s got to get the best possible deal for his corporate masters, in order for them to invest one stinking dime in our nation.
Partisan baloney. Obama has out bushed the former POTUS on several fronts. if that is what you call a great Dem president, we’re in trouble here.
Re: getting Osama. sorry, zero traction there. explain to me and millions of other Americans the exact economic benefit of “getting Osama”. there isn’t any and there’s little security benefit, either.
suggest that our present gridlock might remain unchanged in his second term, that simple idea represents the single biggest danger to his reelection prospects. http://encuestaspagadasporinternet.org/ganar-dinero-con-encuestas/
Correct, and the reason why is the voters are tired of the gridlock. it’s bullcrap.