As more and more evidence leaks out in the George Zimmerman case, I am beginning to wonder why he was charged with second-degree murder and how the state hopes to prove their case. On a very basic level, there is no doubt that Zimmerman took actions and failed to take others that would have prevented a violent confrontation. He’s clearly at fault. A boy is dead and Zimmerman is responsible for that.

It’s also clear that Zimmerman is a badly flawed individual who bullied a middle-eastern co-worker, made anti-Mexican remarks on his MySpace page, was arrested for confronting an off-duty police officer, and once had a restraining order put on him by an ex-girlfriend. The story he told the cops wasn’t believable in several respects, although I’m not sure any of those discrepancies matter legally.

It seems to me that Zimmerman only has to do one thing to win acquittal. He has to raise a reasonable doubt that his story is true about having his head bashed into the sidewalk and him feeling as though his life was in danger. I don’t see any of the other facts in the case to be relevant to the second-degree murder charge. It doesn’t matter why he suspected Trayvon Martin or why he followed him or who initiated the fight or why they initiated the fight.

From what I’ve seen, witness testimony conflicts about who was on top during the scuffle, but the best witness will testify that it was Martin who was on top, and the others are uncertain or are on record as being less certain that they appear to be now. The voice analysis appears to be inconclusive about who was screaming for help, although several witnesses will testify that they think it was Martin.

Zimmerman did sustain significant injuries but it’s hard to conclude anything from them. I can picture a scenario where Martin punches Zimmerman in the nose and then is tackled in response, pinned down, and uses his fingernails to scrape the back of Zimmerman’s head in an effort to fight back. As the police noted, if Zimmerman’s head had been slammed into the sidewalk, he probably would have sustained skull fractures, not minor lacerations. I don’t think the witness testimony will support the placement of the final confrontation on or near the sidewalk.

The prosecutors will not have much trouble impugning Zimmerman’s credibility. He claims to know the face of every resident of his community but not the names of its three streets. The prosecutors will easily establish that Zimmerman ignored the dispatcher’s instruction not to follow Trayvon Martin and initiated an unnecessary confrontation by not identifying himself as a neighborhood watchman. But I don’t see how they can remove all reasonable doubt that Zimmerman was not fearful for his life when he fired the shot that killed Martin.

Maybe that’s a problem with the law, but I think it’s more a problem with the charges. Unless they can come up with voice analysis proving that Martin was the one crying for help, I think Zimmerman will be acquitted.

Although the facts would remain challenging, I think a manslaughter charge would be easier to prove.

In any case, all I wanted was for Zimmerman to have to prove his innocence in court. If the trial is fair and the jury follows its instructions, I have no problem with either a conviction or an acquittal. I just wonder if the prosecution is being a little too ambitious.

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