A new Survey USA poll of Florida shows Obama leading Romney 48%-43%. Even better, registered Republicans are significantly overrepresented in the poll. Mitt Romney must hope that these numbers are badly off, because a look at the electoral college calculator shows conclusively that Romney must win Florida. Let me explain.
If Obama wins Florida, he can lose the following states that he won in 2008 and still be elected with 271 electoral votes (one more than is needed to become president):
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
Virginia
North Carolina
Alternatively, if Obama were to win Florida and hold Pennsylvania, he could win with 271 votes while losing the following states that he won in 2008:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Indiana
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
If you want to introduce Wisconsin into the conversation the math is a little different. But Romney would have to pretty much run the table on these states even if he won Wisconsin. For example, if Obama simply held Colorado and lost all the others, including Wisconsin, he’d still hit the 270 mark.
Romney cannot afford to lose Florida. If he loses Florida, it would take a miracle for him to win the election.
