In my previous post I forgot about Olympia Snowe’s seat in Maine and Richard Lugar’s seat in Indiana. The Maine seat will almost definitely go to former Governor Angus King. Gov. King is an independent but he will caucus with the Democrats. So, that’s a pickup of one. Polling in Indiana has been neck and neck, so that’s another possible pickup. A recent poll out of Nevada showed Shelley Berkley will a tenuous lead over Dean Heller. Polling out of Massachusetts has been up and down. Warren has been ahead in recent polls, but she’s down in the one that came out today. The Arizona race looks competitive, too.
With Gov. King included in the Dem column, the GOP needs to pick five seats to take over the Senate (assuming Obama wins reelection). If you take Missouri out of the equation, that leaves the following realistic opportunities for the Republicans: Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Montana, and Florida. On polling average, I think the Dems lead six out of nine, with Wisconsin, Nebraska and Montana the GOP’s best bets.
If we can win Massachusetts, they need to win six of nine. If we win Nevada, they have to win seven of nine. If we win Indiana, they need to win eight of nine. If we win Arizona, they have to win all nine.
Not that it is going to happen, but the maximum upside for the Dems would be to hold all nine vulnerable seats and win the Republican seats in Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana, Nevada, and Arizona. That would give the Dems 58 seats. However, other than Susan Collins of Maine, we wouldn’t find a single Republican willing to break a filibuster on anything. So, we’d still be stuck unless the filibuster rules are relaxed.
They hold Massachusetts.
Me, I don’t see it. But I have two registered-Democratic, union-member brothers who live down there who have liked his campaign on Facebook, and who plan to vote for him again. They like Scott Brown. And his awesome truck. He understands them — why both of them have trucks too! — and they don’t like ladies, professors, or lady professors.
I take it they’re Log Cabin Republicans in their hearts?
Take it that their only relationship is with their trucks. No wives/girlfriends and/or daughters? Or just women in their lives that hate women as much as they do?
Ah Marie, I fear your ears are too delicate to hear what I’m thinking that they do with their trucks while fantasizing about the handsome Scott Brown. Pardon me while I wash out my brain with soap.
Hope they get stuck by their trucks in the midst of their Scott Brown fantasies and have to call 911 to come to their rescue.
Both have daughters. And wives — the wives are also voting for Brown, for other reasons. They have children who above all to be protected from Them… Because you can never be too far from the corner of Malvina Cass Blvd and Harrison Ave. Or Not even in Plymouth or Rockland are you far enough away. Hell, Brockton’s right over there…. Hey, that’s another reason to vote GOP.
IOW your friends and their families are Republicans — and not even bright enough to figure that out much less have a clue what it is they support.
WI will be interesting. Tommy Thompson was seen as a shoo-in, but will have a tough fight on his hands. He seems to have lost most of his appeal, probably because he wasn’t crazy enough for the teabaggers. If they stay disenchanted, Tammy Baldwin’s hold on the liberal Dems gives her a good shot.
As to the filibuster, if the Dems keep control and don’t do major surgery on the damn thing, I think a lot of us will be done with them for good. There’s absolutely no excuse for keeping it except corrupt ones.
2006. The anvils tossed to GOP Senate candidates that year weren’t nearly as heavy or uniform as this one. McCaskill was an upset winner when the GOP got saddled with the big fat liar and fundies against stem cell research. Webb won when Allen’s “macaca” revealed his racism, and then there was the sexual harassment of Congressional pages.
Looks like Akin really stood his ground against Romney and his party. Even if he gets elected, the monkey wrench he threw into the party propaganda machine will keep on giving right through election day. This is the most spit-in-your-face moment the GOP establishment has ever suffered from their teabagger/Christianist friends. This could be the hour that changes everything.
And most deliciously, this massive pushback is based on, not spin, but their own true beliefs.
I think Akin is toast in November. Rove, et al, would’ve tried to brush this under the rug rather than carpet bomb him, if they seriously thought he could win the seat after his comments.
But yeah, you’re right that the collateral damage they did in their failed attempt to push him out is just beautiful.
You live by the wingnut, you die by the wingnut, mofos.
Boo…not going to happen.
Let’s give the most certain outcomes…
We (right-wing nut jobs) definitely lose Maine.
We win Massachusetts. Trust me…take this one to the bank.
We win Missouri, whether or not Akin steps aside. Don’t get me wrong…that ass hole definitely needs to step aside because he may be one of the stupidest motherfuckers ever to run for Senate…but they will still win with him…I’d much rather a blow-out with Brunner or Steelman than a close call with this idiot…
You’re not going to win Arizona or Indiana…
You may have a shot in Nevada…you probabaly lose…
We may have a shot in Virginia and Florida…probably lose…
Official prediction…Senate is 50-50…
Most importantly, barring some miracle, Barrack Obama is going to lose this election…he’s down in the tracking polls…other polls interviewing registered voters are close…we have more money now…and Paul Ryan will break the tie…
The Senate is small potatoes for the GOP. Your buddies filled it up with Stupid, following up on giving us the two stupidest presidents ever, twice in a row. Your dreams are nothing but wet dreams for Stupid. So what’s your problem with Akin, the prototype?
Because he’s an idiot…
Look…there is much more gray area in the abortion debate than “pro-life” or “pro-choice” advocates admit..
Would any pro-choice person here advocate the legal abortion of a 9-month old minus one day “fetus”? Really?
Abortion is wrong, but should it be illegal? Adultery is wrong…but not illegal…Slavery was wrong, but clearly should be illegal…Abortion…please minimize abortion, but you’re going to arrest people? In reality, I can’t even choose between the labels pro-life and pro-choice…abortion is really, really bad…but can you crimalize it?
Way more complicated topic…a one-day old “fetus”, or a 9 month old “fetus”…
So, I respect any REASONABLE view on this topic…
Saying that a woman being forcibly raped can’t conceive!!!
NOT REASONABLE…leave now, Akin…it’s not just a gaffe…he fucking believes it!
If not being reasonable is your measuring stick then you ought to have some major issues with the side that you’ve chosen…
I’m reasonable because I study both sides of any issue…and understand legitimate differences…
When Booman proclaims that Romneys “money in a trust fund” doesn’t create wealth and jobs, he has clearly not studied the nature of wealth and employment…
It is only saved capital that allows banks to loan money for economic growth…you Keynesians seems to think that printing green pieces of paper creates wealth…it doesn’t (remember Thurston Howell on Gilligan’s Island)…
Study the other sides viewpoint, then give an informed opinion…your class warfare eliminates any serious consideration that you are being reasonable..
I am the other side…
He may or may not believe it (Is there a line between belief and just plain ignorance/insanity?), but the Republicans in MO that you say will put Akin over the top do. So doesn’t it bother you to be an agent for those you yourself describe as idiots?
As to the gray area, that was the operating standard until your people pushed the issue to the extreme and made reasoned, thoughtful discussion impossible. Just as your friend Grover made reasoned, thoughtful discussion on revenue impossible. It’s what your side does. Congrats on your great team.
Anyone who confidently predicts the Massachusetts race is blowing smoke. You have no idea, and neither does anyone else. The race is both very tight, and very fluid.
I suspect that the presidential race is going to nationalize local races and send everyone to their respective partisan corners, which would mean a Warren victory, but again, nobody has any idea.
he’s down in the tracking polls lolz.
Personalities matter too, Joe.
Remember the wave election of 2010? Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnel and Ken Buck still lost…
I know you Progs love Warren, but Brown is the better candidate…
He will win.
Brown is the better candidate, I agree. His performance in the special election is a model for other candidates to follow. Really, that was one of the most impressive campaign efforts I’ve ever seen. Let’s not forget, the national Republicans had abandoned him up here until he climbed out of a 30 point hole by himself, at which point they all came running to jump on him victory train. Nobody should underestimate his strength as a campaigner.
But he’s running in one of the bluest states in the country, in a presidential election year. Do you think the voting electorate on a presidential election day with the first black President on the ballot is going to look like that on an off-off-year special election? I don’t.
And as good as Brown is, he’s not actually all that much better that Warren. Unlike Sharon Angle or Christine O’Donnell, she’s a good candidate herself. The gap between Harry Reid and Sharon Angle was immense. The gap between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren isn’t.
Good points, but I believe a good candidate, who’s also an incumbent, has at least a 60 percent chance of winning…My feeling that Brown is a lock is definitely a “gut ” feeling…we shall see…
He might win. It’s too close to call right now, and that is not really very good for Warren.
However, if he does win, it’s because he will NEVER get on a stage with EW. She’ll make him look like two of the three stooges. Hell, she’d make Clinton look like Inspector Gadget.
So yeah, he might win. And he might not.
bwhahahahaha
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/akin-on-romney-why-couldnt-he-run-his
The fact that that jerk is challenging Romney is unbelievable, and says a lot…he put’s his own ego ahead of the best interest of rescuing this country from your Demogogic Statist Master (i.e. Barrack Obama)…get out Akin!
Too late. The Republican Party has been reduced to its essence. He’s all ya got. And this is what you want for America. Nice.
Isn’t the go-getter to be applauded? Isn’t the one who stands firm on his beliefs despite common wisdom to be encouraged? Isn’t it that the entrepreneurial spirit which overcomes all enemies – foreign and domestic (red team or blue team) – that makes this nation a beacon of hope to all the world? Isn’t that kind of integrity something that the GOP has lauded over these last many decades? Isn’t that the exact opposite of Mitt Romney, a man who makes Bill Clinton look like a bastion of integrity?
Why do you hate America?
</snark>
Hmmm…Akin’s an entrepreneur? 30 years in “Public Service”? Don’t think so.
America? Really? What is “America”? A piece of land located between Canada and Mexico? Like every other chunk of dirt on the planet?
Or is America different? Is it a hunk of land, or, perhaps, is America an idea? A way of thinking? The belief that every individual had the right, and ability, to secure their own life, liberty, and happiness, and that the ONLY function of Government is that and every human being is afforded that right…and rejects the notion that some individuals, or group of individuals, should be able to use the coercive powe of Governmet to play Robin Hood?
Is that the America you speak of? Or are you speaking about a hunk of land between Canada and Mexico?
I thought the functions of the federal government, as enunciated and adopted by “we the people” included “to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity”.
And that “this Constitution” was established in large part because the federal government had too little power under the Articles of Confederation to effectively carry out those functions.
You’d be surprised. Many Ron Paul fans these days believe we should bring the Articles back. In fact, back in 2007/2008, I had a Paulite speciifcally say that he longs for the days when we bring them back. At least he was honest; most of them say how much they believe in the Constitution, but the truth is that they would have opposed its ratification.
Federal Transfer payments comprising the majority of Fed activity? That’s what they meant? Really?
The United States is a hunk of land defined as such by its government. That is what makes it a different country than Canada or Mexico. It has had many characteristics, from slavery and the ending of slavery to Libertarianism and Liberalism to Sousa and Jimmy Hendricks. All those things gave it its history and shaped its character, but what made it the United States through all those sea changes was a government that persisted over the decades. That is the only source of its sovereignty.
I don’t have a big problem with you calling Pres. Obama a “Demagogic Statist Master”. And I don’t have a problem with you saying further above “I’m reasonable because I study both sides of any issue…and understand legitimate differences.”
It’s just that when you put both statements a few inches apart from each other on the same thread, I start to have questions about how seriously to take what you’re saying.
Mass appeal…props for a great takedown! Of course, my comment about Obama was a bit of hyperbole, given the ideological make-up of the audience…
I actually like Obama…he just doesn’t know what he’s talking about as regards to wealth and job creation…just like Elizabeth Warren…Just like a guy that I really like named Booman!!!
Boo…just kidding…I definitely appreciate your skills as a serious thinker…and I appreciate your passion!
Speaking of polls Booman have you seen the new NBC/WSJ polls Dick Halperin weeps.
@JohnHarwood
New NBC-WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 44%. For party ID freaks: sample less D (+6) than July’s (+11), but ballot nearly matched July’s 49-43.
@JohnJHarwood NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart says Medicare, Obama attacks hurt Romney: “If O wins, we’ll look back on July as turning point” from even race.
@JohnJHarwood Mitt challenge: O summer TV bombing makes fall movement harder. NBC/WSJ pollster McInturff: “a functional pres race has already occurred”
Not enough, here’s some more:
NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney’s unfavorables are at a net negative. Something no other modern republican presidential nominee has ever had.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Pres. Obama leads Romney 58%-23% in terms of likability among registered voters. #ObamaAdvantageIs35Points
NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney’s unfavorables are at a net negative. Neve seen for any other modern Presidential candidates
NBC/WSJ Poll: Mitt Romney’s unfavorables climb to 44% and his favorables fall to 38% among registered voters.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan as VP adds no positive for him. I.e. NO BOUNCE. To compare I think McCain got at least 6% from Palin pick. So Romney pre-ejaculation of naming his VP pick so early before convention is a wash.
And still more:
Obama holding his coalition.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Pres. Obama leads Romney 51%-41% among registered women voters.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Pres. Obama leads Romney 52%-41% among voters under 35 years of age.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Pres. Obama has a 2-to-1 advantage over Romney among Latino voters. African Americans: 94% Romney 0
NBC/WSJ Poll: Pres. Obama leads Romney 49%-46% in battleground states of CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.
The numbers are so good for Obama that Dick Halperin is currently reporting only one thing:
Look at history…Rasmussen and Gallup tracking have been the best predictors of the General Election…
Gallup Romney up 2
Rasmussen Romney up 1
Obama at or below 45…
Look, it’s essentially tied, but most of the undecided’s disapprove of his job performance…
He loses, barring a significant unforseen development…
Ramussen has been an outlier up until about 2-3 weeks before the election and then suddenly they fall into line with what other polls are showing. Amazing how that happens.
Rasmussen is an excellent pollster when he’s trying to be accurate. His final numbers are very reliable.
But before the huge Democratic surge he always finds right before election day, that nobody else notices, his polls are nonsense.
Rasmussen and Gallup — thats a pretty thin reed to hang your hopes on. They are clearly outliers in this cycle.
No, they haven’t. Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls have performed very badly. There are many more reliable polls than Gallup and Ras’s tracking polls. Heck, even those firms’ non-tracking polls are better than their daily trackers.
How is it not a bigger story that the fuckups at the DNC managed to schedule their convention the week of NFL kickoff?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444233104577597870434505042.html
No offense to Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, but fuck Joe Biden and Bill Clinton. I’ll be watching Cowboys/Giants, and I don’t even root for either of those two teams. And I’m guessing 35 million+ Americans will be right there with me.
I’ll be watching neither. Conventions are irrelevant in the modern era and I hate professional sports. I’ll have to check my Netflix queue. Maybe some political movies “Advise and Consent” or “Manchurian Candidate” (the Frank Sinatra version).
I love that you called it “the Frank Sinatra version.”
That performance was the very best thing he ever did in his career.
Yow! I hope you mean Franks movie career here. You might recall that he had a singing career as well… 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3kcvKd7mXE
Romney camp may have more money on hand than the Obama campaign, but you sure can’t say that the Obama camp didn’t spend their money well looking at that NBC/WSJ poll.
The narrative that needs to be watched is whether the Democrats are successful in making downballot races national referenda instead of local. First, of course, they have to try, which itself is a big question. They should, though, because this Congress is the most unpopular in the history of polling, Obama is poised to win by a ton, and the demoralizing effect on the GOP would be historic.
If the Dems pull that off, the Senate will be well out of reach for the GOP and they’ll likely lose the House as well. If they don’t, it’ll be a terrible blunder.
I see we have a new troll. what happened to last week’s new troll? what about our old troll. we seem to handle only one troll at a time (one too many nevertheless)
Definition of Troll.,,perhaps it’s all the same “troll”, whatever the F that means…
Perhaps you don’t want to be exposed to opposing viewpoints?
I think that GOP voter suppression should be factored into these estimates. How many states did the GOP pass voter ID laws in? Here in PA the state GOP is totally out to fuck over Philly and if they are successful is it possible that the senate seat is in play?