If, as now appears likely, Todd Akin remains on the ballot in Missouri, it will be very hard for him to overcome the mass condemnation of his own party. He’ll also suffer from a lack of resources, as the NRSC and Karl Rove’s outfit have pledged to withhold funds from the race. Claire McCaskill could find a fairly easy path to reelection.
The Republicans still have pick-up opportunities in Virginia, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and (theoretically) New Mexico. But they are also looking at tough races in Massachusetts, Nevada, and (perhaps) Arizona. The GOP needs a net pickup of four seats (assuming Obama wins) to take control of the Senate. Without Missouri in play, they’ll have to protect the seats they already have to have any shot at pulling that off.
Of course he’s staying in the race. The Immutable Law of Modern Conservatism clearly states that when you have a party full of people who can’t see the big picture and only give a shit about themselves, you will end up with a candidate who can’t see the big picture and only gives a shit about himself.
I also find it supremely hilarious and awesomely unsurprising that he’s being condemned by his party at the same time that they are adopting his opinion as part of their official platform.
Assuming that Akin holds onto his word for the rest of the day, it’ll be interesting to see how the DNC and Obama campaign leverage the visability into the secret chambers of the Rep platform that Akin’s has opened up.
Now that Claire has a fair shot at winning her race, monies to come her way, DNC support and maybe she’ll reconsider and make the journey to the Convention.
Steve King’s announcement of his support of Akin’s position is such a nice touch.
Maybe she will reconsider and rejoin the Democratic Party. I saw an interview with her in 2006 on St.Louis TV. She sounded like a moderate Democrat by which I mean no strong Left positions but basic platform on abortion, civil rights, universal health care, right of unions to organize. Apparently, after getting elected she ran to the Right. Now that she needs the base (granted it’s week in Mo) the chickens have come home to roost.
O’Donnell did an interesting piece on her last night about how she has voted with Obama’s agenda and despite her tacks to center, she’s been more reliable than given credit for. I’d pretty much given up on her but then I come from a pretty reliable blue state so I don’t walk the tightrope she’s had in front of her. Just sayin
You should probably add Michigan to the list now. There was a poll today that had Hoekstra up by 2 points.
The Sept deadline looks pretty easy. The candidate’s permission to withdraw “except for good cause shown by the election authority in opposition thereto, shall be freely given upon application by the candidate to the circuit court”. The election authority is not going to oppose it, so it seems we still have a long wait to know for sure.
Which among other things will keep the suspense alive and newsworthy through the GOP convention and beyond. Which will become a venue where Akin hovers so you can feel his disease. And keep Koch/Rove/GOP agonizing over whether shoveling money to him before the final deadline is just a useless money pit.
Poor dears. Chickens really do come home to roost, don’t they.
Do you really believe the NRSC or the Koch/Rove conspiracy will really cut him off? Thanks to the Subprime Court they can pretty easily launder the transactions, but the money will be there. OTOH, there’s tons of video out there showing his own party attacking him as unfit for the Senate (the lowest bar imaginable). From what I read, it will as usual come down to turnout, with the Christianist theocrats strongly motivated. Will Akin cause an equal and opposite reaction on our side? If so, McCaskill should squeak by.
If she does, the worst reasonable case for the Senate is 51-49 Dem. And the way things are moving the final tally should be much better than that.
I agree. Rove at al will say they are cutting him off, but that’s all bullshit. He’s gonna have plenty of money.
They are cutting him off today, and in 2 weeks, the spigot will mysteriously open again. As soon as the outrage subsides VOOOSH the money returns.
Why are people assuming McCaskill will coast to victory now? It’s not as if Akin isn’t a known quantity in Missouri, and for every mainstream GOP outfit that cuts him off, plenty of other folks will rally to him. There is nothing Teahadist Nation loves more than a martyr to the cause, and right now, Akin’s their man.
I doubt she’ll coast to victory. She’s clearly an underwhelming candidate (from a Democratic base’s perspective) who has generated minimal enthusiasm. I’ve also been (perhaps mistakenly) under the impression that Akin isn’t that widely known outside of his district in Missouri, with the possible exception of his Teahadist base. I could be wrong of course. I suppose what has changed is that Akin looks like the extremist that he is to the whole state (remember, he needs more than Teahadists in order to win), he’s embarrassed his now former benefactors, and that makes McCaskill’s candidacy go from being written off as hopeless to one that is actually viable. She could well squeak by to a victory.
Mainly because he’s been bad-mouthed by every leader in the party and the ads will be devastating. He’s probably finished.
Chicken-counting? Are you all there, Boo?
He is not all done. He is gonna bounce back. Today, in the midst of the firestorm, he is up 1. By 2 weeks, he is up 3.
Dems in MO had better make a strong appeal to ind women. If this fucking turd wins, his views are vindicated, and abortion gets another strike against it.
And Republicans are discrediting the poll. PPP used a GOP ID +9, whereas the highest exit polling fro the GOP in MO was +3 in 2010 and the May poll PPP references was Dem +2. I am not sure he is up 1 and that poll is still early.
hard to draw an inside straight when your candidates aren’t playing with a full deck.
the akin blowback may yet prove more damaging to the R&R ticket than to himself. especially, if the dems can tie him around ryan’s neck.
nothing says stupid quite like a misogynistic, talivangical albatross.
He beats McCaskill by 3. Missouri’s an increasingly red state, Akin’s abortion positions are straight party orthodoxy, not at all exceptional.
His ability to self-censor when delivering party doctrine in front of non-cadres is not what it needs to be, but that’s the only problem.
The election is a referendum on getting That Awful Negro out of the White House. Voters are going to the polls to save America from the prospect of four more years of Kenyan socialist hell, not to vote for senators. They’ll vote for whomever has an -R after their name, because they have an -R after their name.
Deus lo vult — this is a crusade. The Faith, and not the transient human frailty of those fighting for it, is all that matters.
Why would the voters in those other states hate women more than the voters in MO do? Akin = Republican platform on abortion. If Democratic opponents for Senate seats are too lame to make that clear in their states and hammer the opposition, they deserve to lose.
This extreme platform is a gift. R candidates should be pressed on it at every opportunity. If they back it, they lose independent (and some Republican) women. If they run from it, they lose Tea Party men.
In Re Akins, he won the primary with a plurality not a majority. If he is pushed off, the base may stay home (OK, they will vote against Obama) based on anger against the Republican Establishment that never wanted Akin in the first place. They will conside a forced abdication (rightly) as the Establishment denying power to the Tea Party.
If the MO fundies see Akin losing, they just might stay home rather than voting for a Mormon.
Today is Aug 21. By Oct 21, there will be other issues, and unless McCaskill is REALLY ON the ball, he will be up 5. They are batshit insane in MO.
What’s with today’s poll in MA? Warren down 5? Is that possible?
It is interesting that in the last poll out of Missouri, Obama has a lead over Romney. If it is nip and tuck going into November, expect a big push to get Obama voters to the polls with a special recommendation from Obama to get behind McCaskill. She may even see the sense in accepting that endorsement.
The problem for the Republicans is that Akin is tied to Ryan who is tied to Romney and all are tied to the very restrictive, almost Texan like platform. If Dems campaigned like they usually do, all wekkneed and milquetoasty, I would have a lot of doubts about November. But more and more it looks like they are starting to follow in Obama’s footsteps.
Their motto should be, and looks like will be, “Be Proud, Be loud and take no prisoners.”
BTW, although I haven’t seen any polling, it is possible that Indiana can sneak in as a Dem pickup. It depends on just how looney the GOP candidate, who is a typical TP candidate may be.
And just to add. Every Republican candidate, including Romnwey, needs to be asked if he supports the Republican platform. For Christ’s sake, even the voters in Mississippi voted down the personhood amendment.
The Indiana senate race is too close to call at this point. Unfortunately, not so much in the run for governor. Pence would be Mitch Daniels on steroids.
So Limpballs audience today was calling in saying that Akin should stay in and now KKKlanity’s audience is calling in saying Akin should stay in. Serves the idjits right. They’ve stroked the beast of partisan rank and file for so long that the rank and file aren’t even listening to them anymore. It’s like the Terminator movies, humans created Skynet and now Skynet has become self-aware and no longer even listens to the humans anymore.
And, I heard that KKKlannity was practically begging Akin (who called ito the show) to get out the race. Akin on KKKlannity saying he’s in it to stay. HAHAHAHA.
Its’ no laughing matter and I know this dude can still beat McCaskill, but damned if I am NOT enjoying the GOP’s disarray. And ya know later if Akin stays in, that the GOP will start giving money to him again, cause they can’t afford to lose a Senate seat. So they will once again be hypocrites!
The issue played a role last year, so Todd Akin and Paul Ryan are stubborn and appeal to their more fundamental representation.
bwhahahahaha
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/akin-on-romney-why-couldnt-he-run-his
Remember our argument about the rape exception? I said it’s only logical for them to take it to this extreme. It exposes what they’re truly about, and it’s at least honest. Perfect Feministing post about why the exceptions for rape and incest are bullshit anyway:
Why Rape Exceptions and Abortion Stereotypes Are Harmful