As Nate Silver discussed several days ago, presidential candidates have averaged a 5-6 point bounce from their conventions since 1964. Challengers, on average, have enjoyed larger bounces. And candidates who are performing below where the metrics say they should be also have enjoyed bigger bounces. Barry Goldwater and Bill Clinton (1992) both enjoyed a 14 point bounce after their conventions. On the other hand, John Kerry basically got nothing out of his convention.
Mitt Romney is a challenger and he is also doing worse than many metrics suggest he should be doing, so he entered the convention in good shape to get some major benefits. It remains to be seen if those benefits will materialize, but Barry Goldwater’s example is illustrative of why no one should place too much importance on convention bounces. Today, Goldwater’s convention is remembered mainly as a freak-show where the candidate said that extremism is no vice. And, in any case, Goldwater’s bounce did him no good, as he went on to lose by epic proportions. Romney’s convention may be remembered as Marco Rubio’s coming out party, or as Clint Eastwood’s strangest moment. However, I doubt it will be remembered as the turning point of this campaign.
I doubt it, but we shall see. If Romney doesn’t get a 5-6 point bounce, I think we can close the book on this election.
The way the pollsters keep changing the percentages of the categories they poll, it is hard to say. But you are right, if it comes out that there is no bounce, then this is over now.
But even if the polls show a bounce, make sure the cross tabs are reviewed and compared to the crosstabs of previous polls by the same pollster.
I read this from Greg Sargent a bit earlier and it seems to pretty accurately reflect what I have been seeing in talking to undecided and persuadable voters. I don’t think Mitt’s campaign did anything during the convention to change this reality.
I predict a negligible bounce, if any. One thing that has emerged about Mitt Romney over the course of the campaign is that the more people see of him, the less they like him. There’s probably enough polling data available that Nate Silver could figure out a way to quantify the effect. I’ll just call it the Mitt Romney effect, which boils down to the simple fact that his single biggest liability in this campaign is that he is Mitt Romney. That’s going to be difficult for him to overcome.
I expect a bounce, but not a big one.
He had some bad optics that muted his message. First the Katrina reminder and the cancelled day. Then people advocating for themselves rather than Romney. Then pushback from Ryan’s speech which went even to the Associated Press and Fox News. Finally, the Eastwood distraction.
People probably liked Ann, and Romney’s speech was pretty good.
But it just had a mixture of fail and distraction that detracted from the overall impression it made.
He had nothing to compare to the “I smoked bin-Laden” which is coming in Charlotte.
I think the convention was a wash–and probably turned some people off–if they were watching.
But from my phone calls I will say that the Welfare and Medicare ads are working. We will have to work really hard to just counter the lies and misinformation.
The people at the convention and watching the wingnut media probably liked Ann, but I don’t think she changed any minds outside that bubble. All but the besotted would find her poormouthing (an ironing board dinner table?) repulsive, just like her manipulative use of her illness as a political marketing ploy. I suppose a few fans of soap opera and low-level motivational speakers might have swallowed the bait.
Romney’s speech was less embarrassing, but, again, most non-fanboys got empty promises and sappy sentiment instead of any reason to think he represented hope for getting out of our current messes. This was his big chance to be the new candidate of change. To my mind he totally blew it.
1964 v. 2012 – like comparing apples to oranges.
Different election cycle calendars. Henry Cabot Lodge won the 1964 NH primary on March 10th, not that the NH was more than a quaint exercise at that time. (Bobby Kennedy didn’t enter the 1968 race until March 16th four days after the 3/12/68 NH primary).
Nominees were more selected than chosen through primary elections. And that selection happened at the conventions. That’s why people tuned in; to get their first look at the previously little or unknown candidates or taking another look at the incumbent running for re-election. That means that the pool of undecided voters going into the conventions was larger than it is today.
The conventions were messy and chaotic and not the scripted productions we see today. It took time for reporters (print) to filter through all the noise of the 1964 GOP freak show. Decades for a reporter like Belva Davis to talk:
Bottles not peanuts thrown at an African-American reporting from the 1964 GOP convention.
Gore did well in 2000 for the simple reason that he wasn’t that unlikeable, ozone man the media had been telling the public he was. Romney won’t do well because he’s even less likeable and knowledgeable that what people have heretofore heard.
Meh.
That’s an online poll.
Similar development recent days seen in RCP tracking poll.
Obama “divides” according to etnic lines, Romney divides America in wealthy and poor. Once the voter realizes Willard is just for his friends and corporations with tax havens, it should be a shoo in for the President. The great loss of family income and jobs started with Reagonomics, the collapse of financial institutions and banks after 8 years of Bush. Hit them hard and make clear Congress hasn’t done its job the last 4 years. Romney never created jobs with Bain Capital, he got very rich by avoiding risks and loading companies with a debt burden. A bully turned vulture, now says Washington needs to be run by a CEO. I wonder where he will stash our tax dollars …
The Daisy ad nukes AuH2O and his bounce, deservedly so. I’m hoping that Team Obama has that same level of commitment to destroying the Republicans – I believe they do…
Beat me too it.
Will Obama stop being a nice guy long enough to go Daisy on Romney? Can Obama, being black, go Daisy without inviting a white backlash?
John Kerry stepped on his bounce by going on vacation.
Next week is going to be a good time to remind the public of who “Generic Republican” really is.
That’s one mistake you can bet Obama’s not going to make. He won’t be going on vacation until the lame duck Congress adjourns.
The feeling I get is that people were just bored and distracted by the whole show. Including the press. Maybe it’s because we’ve heard all the soundbites ad nauseum for months or more, maybe it’s just a matter of giving up on elections, maybe it’s the bland and truncated media coverage. Anyway, conventions used to be a big deal on the media and around the shop or the water cooler. Seems to me that came to an end this year. Anybody else get that feeling? It will be interesting to see if the Dem convention lands with a similar thud. I suspect it will come close. The times they are achanging.
It’s hard to imagine anything at this convention changing many minds, so I expect a small and transient bounce. In which case all the Dems need is a great ground game and sustained ad barrages. The Reps failed to make a case that they are the hope for things to get better, so there’s no reason for voters to see them as a better alternative than the incumbent.
BTW, it amazes me that Boo thinks Ann Romney
I am wondering whether a bounce may be manufactured by the pollsters, where there otherwise might not be one.
I don’t personally know of even one woman who likes Ann Romney.
Just like with Palin, any female who has been to high school can spot the mean girl a mile away.
Ann Romney is not the nice “mom” she pretends to be.
In an unprecedently polarized electorate, there will be no significant bounce either way.
Especially since another dismal jobs report will likely be issued the morning after Obama’s acceptance speech…
After watching Romney’s speech a second time, I know this…this man is the next President of the United States!
Reagan apparently could not reincarnate as one guy, so he split himself into two–Ryan and Romney!
Reagan had idealism (Ryan), plus experience and will (Romney)…
I’ll take it!
We’re going to turn this thing around!
A reasonable post, once I stopped laughing at “idealism (Ryan)” and “will(Romney)”. Ryan is a cynical leech and Romney is a jellyfish. They hope ride a wave of disappointment at Obama’s failed promise of “Hope and Change”, racism and religious fanaticism to grab the ultimate power and destroy the New Deal, Unions and those uppity working people who only own one Cadillac.
Voice…I can tell you think…
To what degree do you think the difference between the Right and Left is only a matter of difference in how each side perceives the same Reality?
Arthur Gilroy…do you see my point?
That’s an interesting philosophical point to which I don’t have a ready answer. I’ll have to think about that. I do no that some on the Right do not perceive reality at all, but then neither do some on the Left.
I see the difference more in the answers to two questions:
The answers form a two dimensional space with Ayn Rand at one extreme (none and none) Karl Marx on the other (total and total). In between we have Mao (total and none) and anarchists (none and total).
Also, why did you not say “A” voice in the Wilderness, instead of “The” voice in the Wilderness??
Do you see the difference?
And why do these cookies come from 7-11?
I suppose I was thinking of John the Baptist when I created the name.
Why do you call yourself massdem instead of massrep or masstea?
MassDem is a long story!!
Wow…John the Baptist…the pre-cursor of Christ…simultaneously the most radical right-winger and left-winger in history!
Wow.
He was the original voice crying out in the wilderness. And he got his head chopped off for it. I hope to avoid that part.
Romney’s intemperate staffers were predicting a 12-point Ryan/convention bounce just two weeks ago. Given the foolishness of setting their own bar so high, anything less is obvious failure.
It’s hard to believe that, after six years of running, Romney has such a weak campaign. It must reflect the man.