As Nate Silver discussed several days ago, presidential candidates have averaged a 5-6 point bounce from their conventions since 1964. Challengers, on average, have enjoyed larger bounces. And candidates who are performing below where the metrics say they should be also have enjoyed bigger bounces. Barry Goldwater and Bill Clinton (1992) both enjoyed a 14 point bounce after their conventions. On the other hand, John Kerry basically got nothing out of his convention.
Mitt Romney is a challenger and he is also doing worse than many metrics suggest he should be doing, so he entered the convention in good shape to get some major benefits. It remains to be seen if those benefits will materialize, but Barry Goldwater’s example is illustrative of why no one should place too much importance on convention bounces. Today, Goldwater’s convention is remembered mainly as a freak-show where the candidate said that extremism is no vice. And, in any case, Goldwater’s bounce did him no good, as he went on to lose by epic proportions. Romney’s convention may be remembered as Marco Rubio’s coming out party, or as Clint Eastwood’s strangest moment. However, I doubt it will be remembered as the turning point of this campaign.
I doubt it, but we shall see. If Romney doesn’t get a 5-6 point bounce, I think we can close the book on this election.
