It’s extremely rare that I agree with Mark Halperin about anything, but I think his take on the conventions in Tampa and Charlotte is totally accurate. The Democrats out-organized and outperformed the Republicans by a very wide margin. Their speakers were so strong that the president gave no better than the fourth best speech in Charlotte. His speech was probably the third best of those delivered last night, after Joe Biden and John Kerry. Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama both gave much better performances than the president. It’s not that his speech was bad, though. It was ten or twenty times better than Mitt Romney’s forgettable performance. The Dems just have a lot more talent than the Republicans. And we didn’t even employ Hillary Clinton, who is traveling abroad and doing her job.
Nate Silver now gives the president a better than 77% chance of being reelected, although that number will come down dramatically if the Democrats don’t show any bounce from the convention in the polls.
I share Markos’s confusion about Mitt Romney’s advertising strategy. By giving up in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he appears to be resigned to a strategy than calls for winning every swing state. It’s only early September and Romney has settled on a strategy that cannot conceivably deliver more than 291 Electoral Votes.
I want you to think about that, because it has more significance that just for this election. Romney has outright ceded 247 Electoral Votes to Obama. To give you an idea what this means, if Romney loses Florida, he loses. If he loses Ohio and New Hampshire, it’s a 269-269 tie. If he loses Ohio and Iowa, he loses. If he loses Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire, he loses.
Going forward, the Republicans are not going to see an improved map. Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina are all going to continue moving away from them. I don’t think Florida will remain a swing-state much longer. The modern GOP is just barely plausible as a national party that can win the White House right now. And, if they don’t make some major changes in their messaging and even their beliefs, they won’t even have a case to make to donors that they have any chance of winning whatsoever by 2020 at the latest.
My comment in the previous thread was actually in response to the Halperin piece this morning, so I’ma post a copy here too.
The goal post moving this morning is fascinating. First Romney needed to have a good June, after the primary was over. He didnt, contrary to CW, Obama cleaned his clock. Then Romney needed a better summer leading up to the convention. Aside from Paul Ryan pick, Romney had a bad summer. Then Romney needed to have a great convention and therefore increase his fortunes, but he didn’t the convention was a disaster, first cause of Isaac, then Ann Romney’s overrated speech, then all the speakers who talked more about themselves that about the nominee, then the drab stagecraft, then Paul Ryan’s lying acceptance speech, then Romney lukewarm speech that was a big ole whiff of nothing, with no mention of the war or the troops, oh and less we forget…Clint Eastwood! Now he needs to over perform in the debates. Which is a lot of pressure & Mitt doesn’t seem to do well under pressure. Also, personally, I think more people are underestimating Obama’s debating skills by comparing them to 2008, & they are overestimating Romney’s debating skills by comparing them to that clown show that was the GOP primaries.
I don’t see it. I think you’re misreading the conservatism of the speech as a weak point, rather than a simple show of confidence and perseverance. It was certainly unambitious, but there was a lot to be read between the lines.
Media said SoS can’t be there by law, so it’s a bit more than wanting to work.
They are going to lose FL. and it’s all over. I’ve been talking to a few McCain voters who are voting D in this election after the whole medicare/ss/unemployment cuts bs. It’s looking like a slide.
I don’t think Florida will remain a swing-state much longer.
Assumption correct, I-4 corridor is changing, becoming more diverse, Orange County now light blue. Mitt Romney is Rick Scott in another body. First cuts Scott made went after programs for disabled children and it made him very unpopular.
I just posted this on MaddowBlog. But since I’ve never seen the analysis any where else, I thought I’d expose myself to you guys as well. This is how I think the “new” R party will come down.
I’m thinking that KR, Koch Inc, Adelson, and so on have all along not been that keen on Romney being the Pres. Corporate profits are higher than ever before, the stock market is back where it was prior to meltdown, the Europeans are vigorously propping up the Euro (who knows what arm twisting went into that?), Israel is happy with Obama (Romney??? Not so much) and for the 1% EVERYTHING’S ROSY!!!! Why change?
Do you think the Kochs want someone like Romney screwing around with the economy? That would be a disaster for Wall Street. Uncertainty indeed! AIG (the first bozos to get bailed out) have rebounded so hard, the Treasury MADE 18 BILLION dollars on the deal! You and I should be so lucky when our deadbeat brother hits us up for a bailout.
The insurance companies are of two minds about ACA. On the one hand they get a piece of a VERY large and required pie. On the other, they have to accept some rules to go along with it. My guess is, they are perfectly happy with the rules for a few years … then they can get a rules CHANGE! FABULOUS!!!!
Lord knows the R’s have the $$$ to hit on WI, MI, PA. There is enough to go around. No need to scrimp at this time. So why stop? The fix is in.
Unless you love opera and/or conspiracy theories, you never heard of the Koch Brothers prior to this election. That is by design. The rich guys are buying not an election, but the attention of the whackadoodles and the power mongers. Next go around, Todd Akins will keep his mouth shut … All the Todd Akinses. And the Kochs go back to doing what they do best. Pulling strings from the dark.
What they really wanted out of this election cycle was the Senate. Obama (like Bill Clinton before him from whom he seems to have been taking instruction since winning in 2008 with the not-Clinton DEM team) has already demonstrated that he can be pushed around with majorities in the House and Senate. What they didn’t count on was that their crazies would put all their craziness on display. Their dreams should have been dashed for this election cycle — then Democrats stumbled again on the same old rock.
The GOP hasn’t conceded Wisconsin. Apparently, there has been an assessment (by both parties) that an ad blitz in Wisconsin would be unproductive or counterproductive, because of voter fatigue in the state. Eventually the ads will start rolling and rolling in Wisconsin, just not yet.
And, if they don’t make some major changes in their messaging and even their beliefs, they won’t even have a case to make to donors that they have any chance of winning whatsoever by 2020 at the latest.
Things won’t truly change until a liberal justice replaces Fat Tony, Mr. Silence or John Roberts.
If this (see link below) is truly their strategy, then put me on the side of dying, cause if this is their idea of “adapting” then they are more foolish than I thought.
A Month of Mistakes?
Um…ok. So the Romney campaign is gonna wait for the “No Drama Obama” campaign to make a series of mistakes and that’s a strategy??? Obama making a series of mistakes…oh like Mittens series of blunders on his European tour? Really? This is a Presidential campaign right, not amateur night at the Apollo, right
If I was Repub, I’d be pissed. I’m not psychic, but my gut tells me they gonna be waiting a long time for those series of mistakes to come.
I said 400 Electoral Votes was possible and I’m feeling a lot more confidant about it every day.
OMG! Even brand new Butter Bars know that a strategy that depends on the Enemy making a mistake is Defeat in the making.
Note to the Peace Corps types: A butter bar is 2nd lieutenant is lowest, non-former enlisted rank in the service. They wear a single bar of gold leaf as their rank. In the military, silver ranks gold.
Generally they are very young. That’s young, spelled: STUPID.
Exactly! I should have explained. Working with so many veterans I tend to forget that everyone is not familiar with the slang.
Willard must be getting strategic advice from Rudy Giuliani.
You mean in being an unlikable asshole? Back in ’08, the more Rudy campaigned, the lower his poll numbers went.
And now inquiring minds want to know:
Where are Steve Schmidt and Mark Penn these days?
I don’t know about Mark Penn but Steve Schmidt is on MSNBC all the time.
It’s too late for them to adapt. They’ve made it abundantly clear that they hate blacks, gays, women, hispanics. They’ve turned off a whole generation of voters.
Julien Castro said on NPR that Texas is turning blue in 6-8 years due to 1) increased hispanic population and turnout, 2) increased migration of more moderate voters coming from other states for employment reasons, and 3) the extreme right giving up the middle moderate ground for Dems. I personally think that more hispanics in states like Texas will come to feel more empowered when leaders like him, his brother and the Texas Dem chair are all publicly visible.
With the right presidential candidate, could Texas join the Dem column in 2020? I don’t know but it is close. We’re coming soon to a time when the Oval Office belongs to the Democratic Party except for when Dems decide to lose it by pulling off stupid, arrogant shit (in other words, still very much a possibility). When Texas goes blue there’s obviously a shift in the Senate and House as well.
How do they adapt their way out of that?
The moneymen have got to be in an uproar and putting enormous pressure on the likes of Rove. You can see the trickle down effect on the body language of twitching pundits and talking points given with their hands over their mouths.
The voter suppression isn’t panning out. What originally needed to be a quiet swing of a few points given by denied access now needs to be more and yet every visit to the Courts is winnowing that avenue for the R’s.
So Rove may be left with his last ace. Rigged voter equipment. All this because adapting is an unknown in their DNA. That said, I’ll backtrack a bit to say the Fox crew are now rewriting their position on HealthCare and saying it reduces the deficit…Who knew?
Sadly, we must figure in voter tabulation fraud: on the small local scale, like discovering bags of uncounted ballots to fullb state fraud like Blackwell’s electronic transfer of Ohio vote to a Kentucky computer firm in 2004. (Planes fall from the sky.)
And, even if the courts can stop some of this unpatriotic voter suppression the confusion and commitment of republican pollworkers can revive Jim & Juse Crow anywhere.
I hope the term “Jose Crow” is not offensive to new and old Americans. But Jim Crow laws and habits are a part of American history and we can’t seem to abolish once and for all as Rep. John Lewis says. Every immigrant American culture endures some terrible backlash from the insecure and unsharing people the republicans seem to attract.
Wouldn’t that be Diego Crow?
Oh, puh-leaze!
Romney Responds To Obama’s Dig On London Olympics
Um, yeah sure Mittens, you were talking “truth to power”…good Lord this guy.
I wonder if people realize that when they put someone like Mitt Romney “in charge” of an event like the Olympics then that person is nothing but a figurehead. Having been on a few staffs of people like that, they may have a weekly meeting where they pretend to be in charge and occasionally will yell at someone to respond to some immediate issue, but all of the actual management, planning, and execution is left to the little people to work out.
What’s funniest is when two figureheads meet to discuss a contract or partnership or something. They usually arrive an hour or so before their scheduled appointment and are quickly briefed by their handlers. They then chat about the deal as though they understand it, sometimes coming to agreements that make no sense for one or even both sides. (Fortunately, they often don’t remember afterwards so the little people can correct the errors.) But the conversations themselves make you realize just how ridiculous the whole charade is – two highly overpaid, slightly-over-average intelligence people talking about something they know nothing about – but because of their position people pay attention to them.
Keep this in mind when Romney talks about leading the Olympics.
Pundit crowd from Right seems to have left Mitt behind. His talking points and theirs are at odds, they don’t refer to him by name…are they etch a sketching their nominated Party leader?
if they haven’t yet they certainly will the day after the election.
Wow, they’re getting efficient at this. It took almost 8 years for them to publicly forget Bush.
When asked why he didn’t mention the troops in his speech Romney said: “When you give a speech you don’t go through a laundry list, you talk about the things you think are important.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/07/1128977/-Shocking-no-one-Mitt-Romney-is-a-dick-to-our-troop
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And they are gonna wait for Obama to make seris of mistakes? That quote is an out of context ad makers dream. So the troops aren’t important enough?
HA! That’s a Kinsleyan gaffe if ever there was one.
Out of context? That ish is perfectly in context – run with it!
Gallup: Obama Approval Jumps After DNC
My hunch. Moving money for ad buys into GOTV efforts now and relying on all that anonymous money to conduct the air war.
GOTV money? They’ve already got voters who will crawl over broken glass to throw That Awful Negro out of the White House — they just don’t have enough of them.
50%+1 politics doesn’t work if you’ve got a 45% ceiling as well as a 45% floor.
I know that they say better late than never, but isn’t this putting really close? They have to set up, staff and run an aparatus and there is only what 60 days until the election. only one month until the first debate and the nearly 1 debate every week in October.
Time is scarce right?
Read the comment above yours. With all the Religious right and Chamber of Commerce network in place, all they have to do is supply the money to turn out the vote. And also look to transfers of money to downticket races as part of this. They’ve got to do some firewalling of the downticket and hope to leverage that and the air war into an overall victory.
And…then there is walking around money.
No, they must die. I don’t want them to adapt. I want them to die.
Would Option 3 be that their other path to survival is to monopolize the 3 branches of government after using voter suppression to steal this election?
Then they can pack the Supreme Court and redesign HAVA and the Congressional map to fortify their monopoly.
Short run (10-15 years) maybe. Probably not, but maybe. But long run?
Nah. That ends up with its own rewards and what is perfect now, it ususally not any good in 10 years.