My theory on the Romney campaign is that they developed bad habits during the primaries that they found it impossible to kick when the general election season started. I don’t mean the record they compiled, because that created a different set of problems. The Etch A Sketch issue was particularly hard for a candidate known for changing his positions over time. What I am talking about is a strategy of caution. Now we can put a face on it:
Inside the Romney campaign, [Stuart] Stevens has preached a gospel of caution and consistency: Keep the candidate tightly focused on a bad economy and a worse president. In an interview last year with Robert Draper for The New York Times Magazine, Stevens explained his theory of the case this way: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback “Michael Vick’s not a real good pocket guy … So don’t tell him he can’t roll out. Try to make him the best rollout guy that’s ever played.”
A growing number of conservatives are blaming Stevens for advocating a campaign of caution, one that puts all the emphasis not on how good Romney could be but how bad Obama is.
That excerpt refers to the general election campaign, but it is basically the strategy that Romney used to win the primaries. Although Romney chose a couple of areas, like immigration, where he was willing to stake out turf on the far-right, his main goal during the primaries was simply to avoid offending anyone. He had the name recognition and the money, and he was the most plausible candidate for the presidency among a platoon of misfits. All he had to do is avoid alienating the base of the party and maintain decent press coverage, and he’d win by default.
It was basically the four-corner offense used by North Carolina’s legendary basketball coach Dean Smith. Get the lead and then play keep-away with the ball. The tactic was so effective (and boring) that college basketball instituted a shot clock to eliminate it.
Maybe it is because the Romney campaign lives in a right-wing media bubble, but they seem to have calculated that the same strategy would work against the incumbent president. The idea is to deny your opponent any ammunition. Don’t give him your tax returns. Don’t lay out any specifics in your plans. Keep the ball away and talk about the economy.
The problem is that the campaign message has been empty, and the candidate has looked hollow. People formed negative impressions of Romney because of his lack of disclosure and specificity. It looked slippery and dishonest. He obviously has something to hide. He isn’t being frank with people.
And it turned out that the strategy didn’t work. They tried to flesh out the candidate with humanizing anecdotes during the Republican National Convention, but the effort was largely a failure. Most of the speakers didn’t even want to mention Mitt Romney, except in the most perfunctory way. It turned out that Romney’s hollow campaign had failed to win the loyalty and enthusiasm of other Republican leaders.
So, post-convention, the Romney campaign has decided that they need to change course and do more to motivate the base. Instead of arguing that the president is a good man who is doing a bad job, as they did at the convention, they now will argue that he’s a god-hating socialist who celebrates when State Department officials are attacked or killed.
In heavily-Evangelical Sioux County, Iowa, Romney’s introductory speakers — including conservative Rep. Steve King — sermonized at length about keeping Christian values, and vouched for his love of Jesus Christ. In Virginia Beach, he spoke to a flag-waving crowd of veterans and military families — appearing alongside televangelist Pat Robertson — and built his remarks around patriotism, defense spending, and keeping God on the national currency…
…Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist and ad-man, said the case against Obama’s record will be made on the airwaves by the campaign and outside Republican groups — and it no longer needs Romney as a daily spokesman.
“On the outside, here’s what going to happen: we’re going to nuke Barack Obama into radioactive sludge in the swing states with 3000-4000 points of TV in September,” Wilson said. “Crossroads and Restore [two Republican SuperPACs] will do the same. It’s going to be hitting in concert with the terrible economic news, and it’ll strike a chord.”
Most people remember McCain’s campaign (at least, post-Palin) as particularly nasty but, on the right, they think that McCain pulled too many punches and didn’t go after Obama for being some kind of secret Marxist, Kenyan, Socialist, Muslim. Clearly, arguing that he liked to pal around with terrorists wasn’t sufficient. But, by setting some limits to how far he would go, John McCain maintained a little dignity in defeat. It now appears that Mitt Romney (and the outside groups) have no intention of hoarding their dignity.
As for specifics, it looks like Romney will try to do something to satisfy his critics, but the truth is that he can’t disclose his tax returns or talk about his tax plan or his Medicare plan because the specifics would poll worse than a case of genital warts. People on the right thought that his selection of Paul Ryan meant that he was going to try to make an effort to convince the American people that they’d be better off with genital warts, but even Romney isn’t that stupid.
What Romney will do is talk about goals, like energy independence and deficit reduction and fairer trade relations with China, but most of the specifics will still be lacking, or based on fantasy math.
Part of Romney’s problem is that he is kind of a dick and no one likes him. Part of his problem is that he had to commit to a bunch of stupidity to win the nomination. But part of his problem is that he thought the strategy he used to beat Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain was going to be sufficient to beat Barack Obama. That was delusional.
