According to Nate Silver’s model, if the election were held today, Obama would have a better than 95% chance of winning. That is something you would not know if you looked just at national polling outfits like Gallup and Rasmussen. And it shows you how important it is to have Nate Silver at the New York Times. It’s true that I liked it better when he was working independently in the new media, but his influence can’t be exaggerated. I do not believe that the Republicans would be stabbing each other with forks and knives if they thought the election was a dead-heat. But they don’t think that because they know Nate is a smart man, and they know those national polls from Gallup and Rasmussen are better used as toilet paper than as accurate reflections of the state of the race. Nate has taken one of the Republicans’ strongest tools and he has blunted its effectiveness by applying cold, hard analysis to the problem. The Republicans don’t just think they are going to lose. They know it. And Nate is the main reason why.
So, the demoralization is setting in. Michelle Malkin throws a knife at Bill Kristol. Peggy Noonan brings a fork down between Mitt’s shoulder blades. Ann Romney chastises the Republican Establishment. Romney throws a tantrum.
And while they’re all busy carving each other up, Team Obama is working the field with total focus and determination.
Good times.
