According to Nate Silver’s model, if the election were held today, Obama would have a better than 95% chance of winning. That is something you would not know if you looked just at national polling outfits like Gallup and Rasmussen. And it shows you how important it is to have Nate Silver at the New York Times. It’s true that I liked it better when he was working independently in the new media, but his influence can’t be exaggerated. I do not believe that the Republicans would be stabbing each other with forks and knives if they thought the election was a dead-heat. But they don’t think that because they know Nate is a smart man, and they know those national polls from Gallup and Rasmussen are better used as toilet paper than as accurate reflections of the state of the race. Nate has taken one of the Republicans’ strongest tools and he has blunted its effectiveness by applying cold, hard analysis to the problem. The Republicans don’t just think they are going to lose. They know it. And Nate is the main reason why.
So, the demoralization is setting in. Michelle Malkin throws a knife at Bill Kristol. Peggy Noonan brings a fork down between Mitt’s shoulder blades. Ann Romney chastises the Republican Establishment. Romney throws a tantrum.
And while they’re all busy carving each other up, Team Obama is working the field with total focus and determination.
Good times.
Very good times. Just did some phone banking in oakland to Colorado. Well organized and using predictive caller software so you have about twice the chance of getting an actual contact. It’s good to be involved–I really want a piece of this tea party GOP and Obama needs a big win. Leave nothing on the road.
i’m so old, i remember when “progressives” spent their time concern-trolling Obama supporters about how far behind he was.
at one point in time he was far behind. Go back to early 2011 before the real politicians of the R party began to see the signs and drop out.
Tea Party was reigning supreme, the liberals wanted to know how much more they could give away to placate the “moderate conservatives” and all was right with the batshit crazy crowd.
The good part of being progressive, is that you are massively bi-polar. While it doesn’t take much to put you into a depression, it also doesn’t take much to put you into a sugar high.
And unlike, Liberals, progressives don’t take anything for granted.
We canvassed our asses off yesterday around here. It was a beautiful day. Sun shining and nice temps. Found a good number of motivated and excited Obama supporters. The Romney supporters we encountered were generally grumpy. Every week I go out, I feel better and better about how things are going. And this is seriously GOP country.
Just as I was getting my paperwork together to head out from where I was parked, a lady in a van pulled up and asked me, “Are you doing political door to door?” When I told her “Yes”, she asked if I minded telling her who I was canvassing for. I just smiled real big and said, “I’m canvassing for the President”. A big grin spread across her face, she gave me a thumbs up and said, “Thank you so much! You don’t know how much I appreciate what you’re doing. A lot of people around here are reluctant to speak out, but there are a lot more supporters of the President than most people think.”
It was a good way to start what turned out to be a very good day of canvassing.
So, where is ‘around here’?
Southwest Ohio. Mainly Hamilton, Butler, Warren and Clermont counties. Boehner country. And the soon-to-be-forgotten Jean Schmidt.
Wow. That’s surprising. Also encouraging.
Keeping mind, of course, that success would be defined as improving the numbers from 2008. We stand a better chance of Mitt showing his tax returns than we do coming close to winning this area of the state. But the goal is to contribute in a greater way to the statewide total as compared to 2008. If we do that, I will be popping the champagne corks on the night of November 6.
A 4 for dumping Mean Jean!
I just saw a commercial for tonight’s 60 min. and Mitt was orange…or should I say shades of Nixon.
l think boehneresqe may be more apropos.
maybe he should try crying…petulance, entitlement, flip flopping and lying hasn’t worked.
Bets are still on: When will Romney go on vacation Nov. 1st? Nov.6th or even earlier?
Romney ids the kind of guy won’t lose- he take the ball off the field and go home.
Much of the problem with polls is the “likely voter screen”. with registered voters, they either are or the ain’t. With LV, it’s a question of subjective judgement that can be twisted any way the pollster wants it. I think this reliance on LV and ignoring of RV results makes reporting on the horserace about as reliable as palm reading.
There are registered voters who haven’t voted in a decade. I see two relevant questions:
If the answer to the second question is that they evenly reflect the population as a whole then LV should reflect RV. If, however, the “slackers” skew to one party or the other then using RV will be unreliable.
Is anyone watching this 60 Minutes interview of Mitt Romney?
What an absolute fucking waste of good broadcast airspace. Scott Pelley is totally worthless as an interviewer.
I thought Romney did a good job of presenting as benign something absolutely malignant.
The interview was absolutely worthless. It was akin to reading a candidate brochure. And all Pelley did was set up the bullet points for Romney. Romney comes across as nothing but a mannequin in suit. And as far as Pelley was concerned, that was just fine by him. Mike Wallace just turned over in his grave.
Twitter has been circulating a couple of quotes from the interview that seem anything but benign. This one is particularly bad:
60 MIN: “You made $20 million last year and paid a 14% tax rate. Is that fair to the guy who makes $50k/year?” ROMNEY: “Yeah.”
Yes, if you have been paying attention, it’s nothing new, but saying that stuff on 60 Minutes will be a problem if there are any undecided voters left.
Undecided Voters (video link)
They want answers!
Democrats are good, helpful, GIVING people.
So, after election day, we should all be generous, and share with the GOP our time-tested Democratic Party blueprints for circular firing squads.
Given the GOPers attachment to guns, I’m sure they can make good use of the plans, to the betterment of the entire nation.
Maybe they should hide The Ann, too
The most revealing bit of that story IMO wasn’t that Ann is just as arrogant and clueless as her husband, but that she was doing a red-state fundraiser and only getting $250 a plate for it. You’re talking the prospective FLOTUS here, in a city (Omaha) that’s a center of the financial services industry that spawned her husband. And the Romney campaign can only get $250 a ticket? That’s pathetic.
So the question will become, just how many hail Mary’s the Romney campaign will toss out before election and how many firestorms will they start.
Maybe that anticipation plays into why the Obama camp is using the teacher type of ad now; quiet, calming, reasoned.
May the gods give America a good jobs report for October in the days before the election.
I’m not hiding the cutlery. I’m offering more to any Republican who needs to skewer others in their party. I have plenty, guys, come on by.
I wonder how many clumsy bribe offers Nate Silver has had to fiddle his model to say Rah Rah Republicans.
This was merely a poll so it is really unpredictable who will really win at the election.
Considering some of those national polls only call those with land lines – they just don’t give a true picture
Yeah. Nate Silver’s analysis on this is pretty persuasive.
I recall people making the arguments in 2004 that not calling cells phone was missing a whole lot of Kerry voters, and that the polls were underestimating his support. At the time, the argument flopped, simply because so few folks were “cell-phone-only” in 2004.
Eight years later, I think omission of cell phone is a huge issue for pollsters. This website (http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/landline-phone-penetration-dwindles-as-cell-only-households-gr
ow-22577/cdc-us-household-phone-status-h12008-h22011-jul2012png/) says that 34% of households were cell-phone-only in 2011, up from about 17% in 2008. So even in the last four years, the issue has become a lot more significant.
calvin wants to know if Mr. Silver’s modeling includes voter suppression and election fraud?