If you skim down to the bottom of this article, you will find something remarkable and newsworthy. The Obama campaign has an internal poll that shows them leading in Arizona. And they are somewhat perplexed about it because they would obviously like to win the state if it is within reach, but they don’t want to overextend themselves and risk losing their lead in the states he needs for victory. No one has really been talking about Arizona as a possible pick-up, but the most recent public poll of the state (from Purple Strategies) only has Obama down by three points. The most recent non-Rasmussen poll of the Senate race in Arizona has the Democrat, Richard Carmona, a single point behind the Republican, Jeff Flake. And that poll is now old enough that it is entirely reasonable to assume that Carmona has moved ahead. After all, Romney has been sinking like a stone over the last three weeks, and that isn’t good for the other Republicans on the ballot.
Personally, I think it is important to do more than just try to win with the same map from 2008, minus Indiana. I expected (and predicted) that other states would come into play as Romney melted down under the heat of the campaign. Arizona is the first new state to get within striking distance, and the Obama campaign should put in some resources now while there is still time to shift them back out if the key battlegrounds start trending badly. We need that Senate seat very badly. With six-year terms, any gettable Senate seat has to be strongly contested. Carmona is doing very well and he could use the boost from a winning top of the ticket.
What the Obama campaign’s ambivalence tells us is that we probably cannot expect them to make a strong play for several more states, even if they come into view. They may make a play for Arizona, but it doesn’t seem like they’re going to get too cocky. That, more than anything else, is what the outside money is doing. It’s limiting Obama’s upside by forcing him to stay in the battlegrounds.
But it may not matter. Obama will win California without making much of an investment. He can win other states without investing, too, if Romney doesn’t arrest his downward slope soon.
Wow it really desperation time. Now Romney is touting Romneycare to prove that he’s really compassionate!!! WTF!
Karma, Irony, Fate and perhaps even God seemed to determined at the moment to kick Mitt Romney’s ass.
Conservs will NOT like this one bit, unless they are so beat down that they are just willing to dance with the devil, in this cast Romenycare Mitt
“Conservs will NOT like this one bit, unless they are so beat down that they are just willing to dance with the devil, in this cast Romenycare Mitt”
I’ve been wondering about this myself: at which point do goopers say, ‘fuck it, this hopeless’? I’ve never seen such a clusterfuck.
Here’s an example of how you lose a vote.
In 1996, I was living in Pennsylvania and it was clear that Clinton was going to win the state by a large margin. It was also clear that Clinton had made a mockery of the campaign finance laws. I was convinced he would be impeached in his second term for his (and Gore’s) violations of campaign finance law. I did not want to be someone who voted for someone who was later impeached. I wanted him to win. I strongly preferred him to Dole. But I wasn’t going to sully myself by voting for him. And because I didn’t want to vote for president, I just didn’t show up. I didn’t vote for any of the other Democrats on the ticket even though I had no reservations about them.
As it turned out, Fred Thompson had to drop his investigation of the campaign finance violations under pressure from the GOP leadership because they also broke the law. Clinton walked scot-free on that, and wound up getting impeached over a blow-job, which began my radicalization into a full-time political organizer and (later) writer.
My first political activism? Working as a volunteer for Bill Bradley who was running against Gore because of Gore’s disdain for campaign finance law.
Shame on you for not voting at all!
For Arthur Gilroy and fellow travelers.
As Pippin said in the movie,”We’ve got the Shire.”
That is one of the all-time best TBogg posts ever! And applicable every election cycle, too.
How was not voting at all, for ANY office, superior to voting for Nader in ONE office? The only message you sent was, “I don’t care at all who is my President, Governor, Senator, or Congressman.”
a) Team Obama has done a fucking bang-up job deciding what to do, when to do it, and how to do it. Their decision will be the best one that can be made.
b) no need whatsoever to make a prediction on what they’ll do. we’ll KNOW soon enough.
c) damn exciting if they do go for it though!
It would be exciting if they go for it, and even more exciting if they flip it blue. And I’m all for a 50 state strategy (by whatever name).
But flipping Arizona isn’t going to make much difference in Obama’s 2nd term. (One exception: if Carmona is the 50th Dem. senator.) It just means the difference between 330 (or so) electoral votes and 345 (or so) electoral votes.
We’re not talking about an electoral college map like 1984, 1972, 1964 or 1936 (or even 1952 & 56).
yes, Carmona
It would seem possible to pull some staff from a safer state, say PA, and setup quickly in AZ…maybe bring in Clinton and have Obama hit it a couple times just to see what, if anything, happens.
I have no doubt that there are tens of thousands of people in Southern California who want to be involved and would be willing to go to Phoenix to support the local Dem efforts. All he has to do is ask.
One job duty of the President is to be the leader of his party. It’s his responsibility to lend his fellow Democrats downballot the benefit of his popularityy wherever he can. If Obama has the opportunity to help Carmona and fails to move… well, it’s the same sort of weakness that disenchanted me from Bill Clinton.
I’m going to support the President regardless, but his place in history is now on the line.
I think you have to evaluate the tradeoffs when considering a presidential visit. I think if outside polling showed this thing in North Carolina territory (i.e. a tie in the high 40s), I think they’d consider dropping into Arizona for an afternoon rally in Phoenix, or something to that effect. But all the polls show plenty of undecideds, and I have to imagine internals have a better sense of which way the leaners are going. If it’s towards Democrats, then sure – I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama makes a visit in the last couple of weeks. Regardless of that, I would venture to say that there’s probably pretty heavy voter registration going on nonetheless.
But there are other states we are defending seats (like Montana and Missouri) where, frankly, it probably suits Obama to stay away from the states, even if they look competitive. Showing up there and giving Claire McCaskill a Charlie Crist-style hug will do as much good for her as it did for Crist.
I think once we’re 2-3 weeks out, we may see Obama take a few shots at states (like IN, NC, and AZ) where it could potentially be closer, but where he’s the nominal underdog. But until then, I think it’s better not to commit to anything additional until he can solidify the score he’s run up in FL, VA, and OH (which, frankly, are the states that are going to decide this election). Anything else is icing on the cake.
Which is why phone banking and canvassing are so critical
Right now, especially as early voting begins
No doubt. That said, despite getting people to the polls early, I have to think that unless these margins last, OFA is not going to take the gas off the pedal. I read an article where both Obama and Romney are advertising in only 9 states. At this time in 2008, Obama was on the air in 21(!) states – something he could probably do more freely because he had a boatload more cash than McCain did (and he had no SuperPAC BS to deal with).
That said, if Obama is cruising into the final few weeks, and his numbers are within reach in certain states – I wouldn’t put a presidential visit out of question. When was the last time Arizona got an election rally in the heat of a presidential contest? I feel like it could have a significant impact in a state like if it’s close late in the game.
Well it sounds like big fun. I hope it happens.
It’s only his ability to accomplish anything in his second term on the line. I think, given the dynamics of the race, that he has to push Romney into defending these states. Whatever the risk he assumes for his own campaign is also pushed to the opposition. Romney has to hold every state in which he’s favored. If Obama forces him back to Arizona, that’s one less day Mitt gets to spend in Florida or Ohio. Obama wins that way, too.
It’s only a win if there’s tangible polling evidence that supports the hypothesis. Right now, frankly, there really isn’t much polling that’s been done in AZ, and it’s not really a state that is naturally friendly to Democrats. If you look at the border states, politically, it’s somewhere between New Mexico (which is getting pretty close to solidly Democratic at the federal level, but isn’t quite there) and Texas (which is solidly red, and will be until demographics and increased Hispanic participation change the tide) – but closer to Texas.
My hope is that, aside from that, once re-elected, Obama does not play nice with the GOP and wields the bully pulpit much more effectively – and he extends this to the 2014 midterms (which is going to be another tough round for us in the Senate).
I lived in Phoenix during part of Janet Napolitano’s time as Governor. She was very well liked and kept the batshit-crazy Republican legislature in line. I suspect that people there might welcome some sanity on the ballot to vote for lately. It never hurts to drop by and ask for their vote and to support the Dem for Senate. If Jeff Flake (R-Mormon pol family) gets into that Senate seat, he’ll be there for 30 years.
And a visit or two from Obama (just a quick layover on his way to/from Nevada even) would really mean alot, especially to the Latino community. And send Biden around to the retirement communities. They could win AZ without a huge investment of time.
Biden AND Clinton.
Showing up there and giving Claire McCaskill a Charlie Crist-style hug will do as much good for her as it did for Crist.
Do we know that’s the case? Maybe Democrats there are pissed that McCaskill acts more like Ben Nelson than Sherrod Brown?
The benefits of competing in states like Arizona are numerous:
Ditto in Montana, Indiana and the Carolinas – the investment in time/money doesn’t have to be huge to create a multiplier effect, force Romney further onto the defensive and have an incremental positive effect on national polls. There simply aren’t enough undecideds left in the “battleground” states to make any further improvement possible there without huge incremental cost.
Sometimes fighting behind enemy lines can have a hugely disproportionate effect in damaging enemy morale when compared to the usual front-line pitched battle.
My theory is that Brewer & Co. have persecuted and pissed off Latinos with such hateful spite that AZ will have an historic turnout – it’s hard to imagine any Latino who is eligible to register to vote not doing so. If that’s the case, Obama and Cardona might well win without even campaigning.
As for them not realizing how bad a politician Romney is, I think they did and that’s why each of those other morons had a turn at the top of the polls until they self-destructed. I guess the question now is whether the Obama lead would be bigger or smaller against each of Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Bachman, Cain and Perry. And the most interesting would be Huntsman. Maybe Santorum would be doing better in the rust belt. But with him, the Akin thing would have been more damaging.
I was hoping for Romney all along because he exacerbates anti-corporate sentiment more than the others.
But Romney was probably, for them, the least of evils. They just didn’t have any decent candidates except maybe Huntsman, who was never really vetted because he never broke 2%. THE REAL UNFORCED ERROR was Ryan. Have you seen the latest polling among seniors? Romney went from +20 to +4, and he’s still dropping. Picking Ryan was incomprehensibly self-destructive. He should’ve picked that Latina governor.
Ryan was forced on him by his owners, the Koch bros.
Another point, having Romey as candidate meant the beginning of a public discussion of so many issues previously off limits (OWS got this started).
Imagine a little over a year ago no one was bandying about phases with % in them.
Apologies if this has already been linked to but it’s just so outrageously great and Samuel L. Jackson rocks! And checkout who paid for it.
I love that video so much that I want to marry it.