Mitt Romney kicked himself in the balls when he opposed the auto bailout, and it’s killing him in Ohio. That probably explains something that is puzzling Nate Silver. Why is Obama performing better in Ohio than he is nationally, when that never happens for a Democrat? It’s because one in eight jobs in Ohio are tied to the auto industry. It doesn’t help that the Republican governor of Ohio picked a high-profile fight with the labor unions and lost. If you think white working class guys in Ohio are lining up to vote for the “plutocrat married to a known equestrian,” you are quite mistaken. Ask them who is better on the economy and they will tell you ‘Obama.’ This is evidence that the GOP is no longer a national party. Ohio is supposed to be a right-leaning state that Democrats can occasionally win. But, right now, it is a left-leaning state. And it will probably stay that way, just like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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RomneyRyan2012: A Campaign in Pictures
Mother Jones’ graph on the Republican lead in working whites was very instructive. Just like every other anti-Obama meme, this myth is driven from states where the Obama approval rate can be measured by the black percentage of population(re: LA), the percentage of radical Xtian evangelism in state leadership positions (re: Idaho) or both (re: MS).
I’ve been saying for 6 months that the National Obama disapproval ratings are flawed carriers of analysis for just this reason. I didn’t think to see it in the working class whites disapproval.
Damn. I coulda been Booman with this one 6 months ago.
Ohioans are basically fair and reasonable people who value education and apnpreciate there usually is one right and best answer.
THATs why they like Obama.
And bailing put the auto industry was the one and right best answer.
And yes the GOP is close to going the way of the Whigs.
And still Howihateohiostate. 🙂
Grant takes Vicksburg, and it’s all over
Obama now probably has the luxury of focusing on competitive Senate and House races and on broadening his map to include the Carolinas, Indiana, Missouri and Arizona (to break his duck with states starting with A!)
It will drive Mitt Crazy because he simply can’t afford to compete in those states – he has to focus on Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Wisconsin to have any chance.
It sounds as if Mitts advertising driven campaign has reached the point of no -or even negative – returns – people get sick of seeing too many ads too often. But what else has he got? His ground operation can’t even ensure decent crowds for his campaign events.
He has nothing. His campaign is shell game. There is no infrastructure. There is no message. And the pre-existing Republican organs, like radio and FOX, are lukewarm on him at best.
Advertising is pointless because a) people hate Mitt Romney and b) the states that matter have already tuned political advertising out.
His campaign will continue to crumble until it is a tiny husk that will be blown away on election day.
The states that actually vote for him would probably vote for Joseph Stalin if he had an (R) after his name.
“The states that actually vote for him would probably vote for Joseph Stalin if he had an (R) after his name.”
At what point could this become a serious problem for those states themselves, particularly as most are net beneficiaries from Federal programmes? Is Fed bashing a no-lose proposition or could there be costs in terms of the net benefits received? Will people emigrate out of red to blue states in search of better education, healthcare and employment prospects and more freedom in matters of morals and ethics?
To what extent are such states condemning themselves to further (relative) underdevelopment within the context of the USA?
Obama now probably has the luxury of focusing on competitive Senate and House races
I hope he and his team do this. Have they done much to help win Congressional races until now? Seems to me they mostly sat out 2010.
I know he treasures his “above the fray” image, but I’ll bet it would help in Massachusetts if he showed up and explained that whatever Scott Brown says he believes (e.g. pro-choice) that in fact Brown votes for the most reactionary-conservative faction in US history when he votes for the Senate leadership.
Obama did a lot of campaigning for Dems in 2010 and basically pled with the voters not to give back the keys to the car to the GOP. OFA also did a lot. Three things hurt:
I dunno. I’m getting 3-4 texts per week from OFA now and don’t remember any in 2010.
Could be wrong – and I’m willing to read links to evidence proving otherwise – but from what I’ve seen Axelrod & co. are about “looking out for #1” and the other Dems are on their own. I really do hope I’m wrong so will visit here in a day or so to see if anyone can show me otherwise.
I hope Mitt is working hard on the stump in each state- if he is forced to keep talking to keep the faithful he has less time to study for the Debates, and everyone knows he is a slow learner. He may look presidential but he sure doesn’t sound like it.
The “Let Detoit go bankrupt” oped that Romney wrote has hurt him in Ohio and elsewhere. But it was still marginally close until the 47% remarks got aired. That was the final straw. And I agree that Obama may be able to extend his reach a little to both gain a new state or two and to help Senate and House races.
Boo, I think that Nate is fundamentally underestimating the ground game effect of Obama’s 100+ offices in OH and large number elsewhere. This allows them to spread information and compound Romney’s gaffes to a degree in which it wouldn’t happen at the nation wide level.
I think it is silly to go into this election thinking that Ohio would not be a stronger Obama state than the nation in general, that’s in addition to the factors you’ve listed above.
You might be on to something.
OFA is canvassing in areas right now that were only phone banked in 2008. With the Washington Post Poll showing that 36% of Ohio voters saying they have been contacted by the Obama campaign, compared to 27% by the Romney campaign. That is a HUGE disparity for Romney. There is absolutely nothing that works better than knocking on someone’s door and talking with them, face to face. People appreciate that. And they really do want to talk about this election.
Here’s to hoping that the term “Victory Center” becomes the #1 oxymoron of 2012.
Nothing works better but nothing is more expensive if you have to hire people to go door to door. That’s why dedicated volunteers are so important. People don’t want to talk with a machine on a robocall or robopoll. They want to talk with a live person in person.
Romney thinks he can buy this election like he buys everything else. I’ll bet he has a personal physician like Michael Jackson.
Booman thinks it’s going to be big and I respect his expertise. But it won’t be big and could still be a loss if people are complacent and don’t go to the polls. I don’t have a lot of faith in voters. I’ve met too many as an election judge.
I have spent countless hours standing on porches this summer. Sometimes just listening. Sometimes persuading. Always letting people vent as long as they wish. But always, and I mean always, leaving them with a final contrast of the choice they have facing them on election day. That is what has convinced me of the massive influence of face to face discussions. I’m just a dude that has spent his entire life in the area these people live. These people are my neighbors. I think that makes a difference when I’m talking to them.
Man, I admire you tremendously. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Honestly, I have actually enjoyed the hell out of it. It has been one of the most fun things I have done in a long, long time. This is the first time I have been involved in a grassroots election campaign. And I’ve got to say, it’s a rush. Not to say it isn’t hard work. My feet and back are tired after a few hours of canvassing. But it really does give me a sense of satisfaction when people thank you for spending time with them. At it’s most base, this is what politics is all about. I go home with a real sense of fulfillment. I am hooked. Much to the dismay of my wife. 😉
Run for office. Any office. Encourage others like you to do the same.
I attended a rally this afternoon for my Senator, Sherrod Brown. I went for no other reason than I wanted to get a chance look him in the eye, shake his hand and tell him how much I appreciated what he was doing for the people in our state. I waited until well after the event was over, most all of the autographs and picture taking was done. I made my way to him, tapped him on the shoulder and when I had his attention, I just said my piece. That’s all I wanted to do. Some of these people who run for office amaze me. There were local politicians there, and I made it a point to talk to all of them, and thank them for what they are doing. Say what you will about politicians, but many of these people work their fucking asses off for what amounts to next to nothing, simply because they believe in what they are doing. I have to say, I came away inspired.
Please think seriously about what RandyH proposed. I’m on my 5th consecutive local office term over here (3 different offices) and never did I regret it. A side benefit ~ that kind of service can add to one’s humility awareness by many degrees, for those inclined to pursue that aspect of character development, which is good, because in smaller, rural counties, there ain’t much money in it.
I suspect there are several here at BT who are now serving.
I won’t name him because it would hurt his chances, but one long-time member of the site is running for State Senate this year in one of the Dakotas.
That’s great! I can probably guess and would love to send at least a small donation. I’ll send the subject of my guess a private email and ask unless you think its not a good idea.
As an unintentional local politician in the midst of a third term, I’d add my voice to those saying go for it. You can make a big difference at this level of politics,
Swing States according to PurpleStrategies in February and how they relate to Romney Today according to HuffPo today:
New Hampshire: -3
North Carolina: +0
Minnesota: -10
Wisconsin: -8
Michigan: -10
Pennsylvania: -10
New Mexico: -12
Ohio: -7
Colorado: -3
Nevada: -6
Florida: -4
Iowa: -4
The Romney Campaign
Jobs, jobs, jobs … simple answer.
Actually, Ohio Unemployment (U-6) was 14.0% at the end of June. That compares to 16.5% in Illinois and over 22% in Nevada (highest in the nation) and over 20% in California.
“Overall, states experienced far more declines than increases in the alternative measures relative to the prior 4-quarter average period, reflecting the continuing improvement in the national labor market. For each measure, between 34 and 40 states had decreases from the previous period.”
Next figures are due out October 26. The Fed’s don’t like to talk about U-6, they prefer the rosy numbers you get when you filter out the long term unemployed.
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Are you better off than you were four years ago? Hell yes if you lost your job four years ago and now you have one.
Even for people in Romney’s class, i.e. the DOW closed at 10850.66 four years ago. Today it closed at 13,413.51.
Obama campaign has momentum _ and nerves – US News and World Report
Josh Marshall is arguing that the political media have underestimated the impact of the 47% speech:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/david_corn_romney-slayer.php
What I wonder is how the politics of Obamacare will play out in states where the Republicans decide to opt out of key coverage. That is, what happens when people going bankrupt without medical care look across the Mason-Dixon line and see folks in the next state over covered.
Nah, they’ll be covered. It’s just that the system that covers them will designed by the Feds, instead of the State.
Ok, seriously Mitt is delusional. If it wasn’t so sad, it’d be scary if this was an episode of Criminal Minds.
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
For a man who’s been campaigning for the office for 5 years running at this point, I think calling the end of September the “early stage” is a bit aggressive on his part.
I agree with your main point but for the record, Mitt’s been campaigning for president since at least late 2004.
Tide comes in, tide goes out. You can’t explain that.
Yes you can – caused by the moon – also rumored to have an effect on some people’s brains – see Lunatics…
Hey Booman, I know you’re always looking for funny videos, where this one going around on the interturbes is hilarious.
I posted yesterday the video of Romney trying to get a crowd to chant “Romney/Ryan” instead of “Ryan, Ryan” which is what they were inittially chanting. It was way awkward and even I sort felt bad for Romney, but not that bad.
Well Joe Scarborough reaction to the video, that I have now watched it more than once and I laugh my ass off each time.
http://youtu.be/SclDiN-lcYE
Between Scarborough’s “Sweet Jesus” and Halperin/Guise dead expression and Ed Rendall big ass smile, it really is a priceless video.
I have watched this half a dozen times today. It is one of the funniest damn things this whole elections season. We liberals are supposed to have a streak of empathy, but I have a hard time generating any at all for him in this case. Just sad. But funny as hell.
it’s over…and they all know it.
h/t to boran2
“Ryan, Ryan” That tends to prove Booman’s thesis that the base is drawing the wrong conclusion and they want someone still farther to the Right.
Ryan is probably favored for 2016. With Pizza Man for veep?
Yet more bad news for Romney.
Even Romney has given up on Romney.
For the click shy folks:
The word that I would use to describe him is shmuck.
Over a 100 Facebook likes for this throw-away post?
The intertubes are weird and unpredictable.
Believe it, Booman. Many of us are in the same boat. I remember before I found your site, SmartyPants and StoneKettle Station how depressed I was almost every day. I actually was cheered by the articles and comment section of Chris Weigant. Reading you and the others is like a breath of fresh air after being in the desert for years.
He must be one hell of an athlete. Kick himself in the balls when he has both feet stuck in his mouth? Incredible!!!
AG
P.S. Although Romney most certainly deserves the mockery that he is receiving from about 90% of the media, does it not strike you as strange that he got the nomination in the first place? I mean…during the primaries and debates the same media gave him precedence on every level over any and all challengers, and they essentially denied the one challenger who could whip his ass (Yes, Ron Paul. Deal wid it.) the chance to even get into the ring with him. It exactly resembled the way boxing promoters build up a tomato can into a challenger so that they can eventually have the champ knock him down after a few rounds and make a big profit from the fix.
Talk about flip-flops!!! The media-based transformation of Romney from Republican centrist hero to right-wing goat has been remarkable both in its speed and in its completeness. And you don’t have even a little suspicion that some sort of fix has been in from the get-go?
Hmmmm…