Michael Tomasky, typically a cautious commentator—as are so many liberals his age (once burned, twice shy)—indulged himself over the weekend* with imagining what might happen if Pres. Obama wins re-election in a landslide. And by landslide, Tomasky means more states than four years ago:
“…let’s say Obama wins all the blues and takes every swing state. That’s 347 electoral votes. And it’s not at all implausible. But what I’m talking about here is one further and devastating twist of the knife. Let’s say here that Romney really collapses, and Obama picks off one state no one expected: …let’s say Arizona. All those old people somehow rise up against Paul Ryan. That’s 358.“
If that happens, Tomasky says, four things are likely to follow as a result:
- a “marvelously amusing war of recriminations” among Republicans, with the next-time-we-need-to-nominate-a-real-conservative faction winning;
- congressional Republicans will become less obstinate;
- the “fiscal cliff” is averted by a “grand bargain” that includes tax increases and spending cuts (some that Democrats don’t want, e.g., Medicare);
- the “political balance of the country changes” from 50-50 to 54-46.
Tomasky reminds readers that he doesn’t think an Obama blowout is likely to happen and concedes that “while my fourth change, I confess, is a tad wishful, the first three are completely in the realm of the possible, even if Obama wins more narrowly than I’ve laid out above“.
For what it’s worth, in the event of a big Obama win—even a win in which he loses, say, Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina from 2008—I think #4 is more likely to happen than #2 or #3. (#1 is definitely happening, even if Obama wins by 50.1% – 49.9% in the popular vote and 270-268 in the electoral college.)
Why? Because in this case demographics is destiny, and the Democratic coalition (young, college-educated, minorities, single women) is growing while the Republican coalition continues to shrink. Every year, 4 million citizens reach voting age, and they vote Democratic by a 3-2 margin (conservatively speaking). Meanwhile, about 2.5 million Americans die each year and most of them are over 65—the most heavily Republican part of the electorate.
Sanity may or may not return to the House Republican caucus in the next 100 days, but—barring some unexpected catastrophe—the emerging Democratic majority is going to continue to emerge.
*The pundit’s equivalent of a 3 scoop ice cream sundae with the works.
Crossposted at: https:/masscommons.wordpress.com
