According to the WMUR Granite State poll, Romney’s campaign in New Hampshire has utterly collapsed. Obama leads with independents 47%-29% and he has a 27% advantage with women. Add that up and Obama leads 52%-37% overall and 54%-39% once you push leaners. It seems almost certain that Obama will top 55% in the state, while Romney will struggle to top 40%. That means we will almost certainly win both House seats in the state. The Democrats have a 12% advantage in motivation, too, which shows that it has been important to hammer home the fact that Romney is going to lose. The New Hampshire GOP has received the message and they no longer give a shit.
This is how a campaign crumbles. Remember, I compared it to arm-wrestling. It can look competitive for a long time, but ultimately one side is stronger and the victory can be sudden and jarring. Pollsters were seeing an enthusiasm gap that favored Republicans all year long, and their likely voter models reflected that. But the enthusiasm gap has been closed, or even reversed in some places. That’s why the GOP has launched this absurd campaign about unskewed polls. They can’t let their troops realize the game is over or the floor will fall out below them. And, in New Hampshire, it already has.
