I have no idea who will “win” the debate tonight. It’s hard to predict these things, and I am not the target audience so watching the debates doesn’t help much. I didn’t think Obama did that badly in the first debate. I almost felt sorry for Bush in his debates with Gore, and yet he benefited from them. All I know is that I like Joe Biden. I know he will do the very best job that he can, and that’s all I ask. And I think Joe is a very likable guy, with that big grin of his. For the most part, I think these debates are won or lost on the basis of likability. But passion is important, too. I think Obama’s low energy is what really cost him against Romney.
Probably the only reason I’ll watch the debate tonight, though, is because I’m curious to see how Paul Ryan performs. I really don’t feel like I know Ryan that well. He seems a little high-strung to me, like he has a lot of nervous energy. Maybe a little over-caffeinated. I wonder how that will translate to the big screen in a major debate.
Yeah. Hard for me imagine that there’s not this vast gap from one to the other already, or to imagine being on the fence between the two with the debate sorting it out. I tend to envision both sides watching it more like a sports event, team colors already identified.
Tonight is my dad’s eighty-first birthday, so we’ll be busy spending time with him. Of all the scheduled debates, I would probably have enjoyed this one the most, as I am a huge fan of Joe Biden. I think he has the energy and the experience to make Ryan look very, very small.
But whatever happens, everyone will get to see Lyin’ Ryan under pressure. Hopefully Biden will show him up for what a miserable little weasel he is, and regain some voter confidence while he’s at it.
Looks like my dvr will be burning up tonight – playoff baseball, Thursday Night Football, and the Veep debate.
I’ve posted this article from Dave Weigel today elsewhere so I’ll post it here cause it fits well. I believe that Weigel is from Delaware and so maybe he has a “leg-up” on Biden, but after reading the article, if Biden is able to “just be Joe”, I think it will be good. I think you’re right, the wildcard is Paul Ryan (btw, what’s with Paul Ryan not wanted to be called Congressman, but rather Mister in the debates, I honestly see Joe forgetting this, but maybe not).
Anyway here is the article. The whole thing is definitely worth a read.
Can Joe Biden Save Barack Obama? People are underestimating the veep. They shouldn’t
http://tinyurl.com/93dtqlg
Also,
“Can Joe Biden deliver in a debate? Yes.”
http://youtu.be/m1clV4Q-7C8
(H/T DKOS for Title and Blockquote)
I think everyone should underestimate Biden. Then he can wow us more easily and we can talk about how he “delivered.”
As it happens I think he’s going win, but also say 2 things that the media will class as gaffes or Bidenisms. One of these things will actually be correct (eg Bosniak) and one thing will be a joke that is actually offense (Delware slave state stuff). Ryan will just lie his ass off as he’s been doing for years.
That’s my prediction.
I hear some people saying who is gonna be watching the VP debate since baseball is on and maybe football I guess. My answer: WOMEN. If Obama/Biden can keep the big advantage on the gender gap that they have in the swing states, then going into November, then they win…period.
Women make up what 1/2 of the elctorate, but they vote in bigger numbers than men right? So a big gender game is the difference between win and losing in alot of the swing states right?
This feels like an unfounded concern since we know like 70 million people watched debate #1. Even if the viewership comes back down to earth a bit, it could still have like 45-50 million people watching. Heck, maybe even more will watch since the first one was such a huge event?
It’s not 1965. Baseball isn’t exactly at the peak of its cultural apex. A lot of New Yorkers and Steelers fans may skip the political proceedings, but I’ll bet the debate has as many viewers as the multiple games combined.
I’ll probably be switching back and forth tonight depending on how much of Ryan I can stomach.
What I know about Biden debating is limited to his bout with Palin 4 years ago. Although he is known as a gaffe machine in practice those gaffes pop out infrequently. And the gaffes stand out because he is uncommonly well spoken all the rest of the time. This isn’t like the Romney gaffe-fest. Biden has decades of experience on the Sunday news shows providing in-depth analysis, in particular of foreign policy, and that experience is HUGE.
Biden was completely on his game in 2008. He didn’t even both to address Palin on any issue, knowing that any negative comment no matter how slight would have caused flashing lights on drudge and weeks worth of 24×7 coverage on fox – and that the other networks would have been obliged to cover the “controversy”. One of my favorite responses was after Palin spoke and made some point about “too much talking about the past” Biden looked at the moderator and said “Past is Prologue, Gwen”. Then went on to a typical in-depth analysis of the situation, never even looking at Palin or referring to what she said, but making her look even more utterly incompetent by comparison.
So Biden has the tools, but 4 years ago all he had to do was hold serve while the Palin ticket self-destructed. Romney-Ryan will ride their con as smoothtalking lying salesmen all the way to the white house unless someone calls them on it, and the media won’t. Biden will have to do that tonight.
Ryan, on the other hand, has been a media star but has never had to discuss issues in detail in these kind of settings before. I’ve seen bits of his stump speech which isn’t much different than the shit Palin said, just a more even tone. We also saw him on Fox Sunday with the easiest host in the world and yet he still flubbed basic questions.
Taken together, Biden’s challenge is much great than 4 years ago but then so is the opportunity. If he executes well he’ll come across as the elder statesman with deep wisdom, knowledge, and insight and Ryan will come across by contrast as a pure novice who thinks he’s an expert.
Biden has three major advantages over Obama. First, as VP he’s allowed to come across as an attack dog in contrast to the President. And second, he’s white, so there is none of that worry (which I think is overstated, but it’s often mentioned) that a black man can’t appear to be too mean to his white opponent. The third advantage is that he’s of social security age while Ryan looks like he’s just out of college. If Biden choses to focus on Medicare – and I really hope he does, those who are close to that age are much more likely to listen closely.
So what will he actually do? In my extreme worst case scenario Biden makes a couple major gaffes that overshadow all the other coverage and then the Democrats will go into full panic mode. Extremely unlikely, but it’s there. In the believeable worst case scenario the two of them end up trading a bunch of slogans and memorized facts and it’s seen as a tie. Slightly better would be they do that but Biden, just by being Biden, is seen as the debate winner by the instapolls.
But none of those would help the campaign. VP debates that are close or stalemates are quickly forgotten. Biden needs to make a splash.
My hope is that he’s memorized the contents of the Ryan bill that passed the GOP house and voucherizes medicare. My hope is that he explains to the audience what medicare is (not everyone knows well), and emphasizes that this isn’t a proposal – this is what they tried to put into law.
And not just once – keep finding a reason to mention it throughout the debate – people tune in and out. It’s okay if the pundits laugh later and say “Biden wouldn’t shut up about Medicare” because that means they are talking about the GOP bill.
If Ryan denies it have a line ready. “COngressman Ryan, I read that bill in detail. You are listed as the author. Either you didn’t read your own bill or you are lying.”
The opportunity awaits to clearly define what the GOP is proposing. I suspect Biden will do it so-so and be seen as the winner, but I’m hoping he hits the proverbial home run and makes Ryan look like the pretty boy-no brains that he really is.
Can Joe Biden Save Barack Obama? People are underestimating the veep. They shouldn’t
http://tinyurl.com/93dtqlg
BTW, The agreement from both camps is that Ryan will be addressed at “Mister” not “Congressman”, but I just can’t see Biden remembering that. Maybe he’ll throw in in as a way to get under Ryan’s skin. AFter Mitt’s lying in the 1st debate, I’d say any “gentlemen’s agreement” should be null and void.
I read that after I posted – tx for link. I didn’t know that about his Senate debates in the 1990s – but that is EXACTLY the guy they need to go up against Ryan.
That would be nice – a real Policy Wonk against one who just plays one on TV news sound bites.
And I LOVE the idea that Biden is ready to go on the woman’s issues. As someone else commented here the audience is going to skew female due to the competing sports.
I would love for Biden to quote from various GOP people running for office about birth control, rape, and equal pay. One of the latest gaffes comes from a Wisconsin pol who Ryan endorsed heartily.
I realize fully well that I’m selectively picking up info to support what I hope happens. This is why I never bet on football games involving teams I like – I’m far from impartial and it clouds my judgement. I’m not saying I predict Biden will do that – but damn I sure hope he pulls it off.
Ryan always looks red eye’d to me, tired and sleepy.
I’ll be watching tonight if only to see if we’ll get any ‘behind’ shots like we did when Biden debated Palin and we saw those famous ah shoes….
Maybe a little over-caffeinated.
I think it’s EPO.
I haven’t seen any commentary on Ted Olson’s techniques that he has undoubtedly passed along to Ryan while he’s been coaching him. Olson is certainly one of the most formidable of his time, ask David Boise, and I’m more worried how his training has sculpted Ryan’s form.
Time released some uh, photos of Prettyboy Munster today – Paul Ryan: All Pumped Up for His Closeup
(eyeroll.)
You saw this, right?
I hadn’t looked at that thread yet when I posted this.
Joe Biden has a huge homefield advantage:
Violence Against Women Act
Against a twerp who tried to redefine rape, and a Congress that still has not reauthorized Joe’s legacy legislatiion. They need to pound them on women, again, and again, and again.
As the final minutes tick down I’ll just post that I am way too emotional and refuse to watch or even, as I did with the Obama-Romney debate, monitor the blogs. I always want to yell at the screen.
As an atheist I’m not going to say my prayers are with Biden, nor do I believe in superstitions or that any action I can take will help him in any way. I just hope he kicks Ryan’s butt into December.
Paul Ryan is publicized in conservative/DC Media circles as the Republican Architect of All Things Serious. He’s billed as the Intellectual Anchor of their whole movement. And he believes the hype. To us he’s seen as a fraud, “Flim-flam Man,” a homoerotic right wing propaganda cartoon figure.
I hope to see Biden Dan-Quayle-ize him tonight, show the Republicans just what an intellectually bankrupt party that they are by making Paul Ryan the laughing stock.
If it goes the way I hope it will, maybe I’ll watch the post-debate show on Fox. I wanna see Sean Hannity cry a river of Wingnut tears.
YES! YES! YES! YES! YES!
Sorry, Barak, but were you taking notes?