When you’re working in a political campaign that has a week like the week Sen. Scott Brown’s re-election campaign had this week, generally about the most optimistic statement you’ll hear is, “Well, at least it’s not the week before Election Day. This way we’ve at least got some time to turn things around.” (The fact that “some time” is down to just two weeks is best left unsaid. No need to depress your colleagues any further.)
Here’s some of what happened to Scott Brown this week:
- On Tuesday, the conservative Boston Herald reported the Massachusetts Republican party is paying homeless black people to wear “Obama Supporters for Brown” t-shirts.
- At a campaign appearance in Taunton on Wednesday, Brown falsely claimed “A lot of them are paid. We hear that maybe they pay actors,” when referring to family members of asbestos victims appearing in Warren’s campaign ads.
- The latest statewide poll showed Warren’s lead over Brown growing to 9 points as Brown’s favorability rating dropped to 46% while Warren’s rose to 52%.
- Republican Sheila Bair—former head of the FDIC and a Bob Dole protege’—has been traveling the country endorsing Republican women running for U.S. Senate; Wednesday she stopped in Boston, Lowell and Worcester to appear with and endorse Brown’s Democratic rival, Elizabeth Warren.
- On Friday the story broke that Sprinkler Fitters Local #550 member George Patriarca (his union has endorsed Warren) who’s appeared in a (misleading at best) Brown attack ad has a Facebook page on which he called Warren a “douchebag”, called Pres. Obama a “faggot” and just for good measure made anti-Semitic remarks too.
All this comes on the heels of Warren outpointing Brown in their third televised debate, with Brown getting criticized for referring to “his service in Afghanistan” (two weeks of National Guard duty “in the rear with the gear”) and questions about Brown’s favors for the compounding pharmacy industry just weeks before the co-owner of New England Compounding Center hosted a big fundraiser for Brown’s campaign…and a nationwide fungal meningitis outbreak was traced to the pharmacy.
There are still 17 days until Election Day, and Brown and Warren have one more debate scheduled (Oct. 30). But if Scott Brown really is nine points behind Elizabeth Warren, he really can’t afford another week like the one that’s just ended.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
And he still has a 46% favorable rating! As a sleazebag Republican why isn’t that down around 35% considering that this is “blue” MA and not “red” ID?
Because Massachusetts isn’t as blue as outsiders believe; there’s lots of red streaks through the blue, and solid swaths of it here and there, especially in the western half of the state. Boston, Cambridge; yeh, very Dem, and they tend collectively to overwhelm the GOP-leaning areas, but don’t make the mistake of thinking the state is anywhere near monolithic.
Also, the Bay State has a long history of electing moderate Republicans, especially to the governorship.
I hope I’m not being too nitpicky here, but the western part of the state (Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire counties) is pretty solidly blue. Brown piled up big margins in the outer suburbs (around I-495, on the South Shore and Cape Cod) when he won two years ago. He also fought Coakley to a draw in the mill cities (e.g., Lowell, New Bedford, Worcester).
That’s pretty much the formula to statewide victory for Mass. Republicans—which is how Weld, Cellucci, Swift and Romney ended up in the corner (governor’s) office at the state house.
On election night, one place all the poll watchers will be watching is the city of Lowell (old textile mill town, some high tech, lots of immigrants, about 35 miles NW of Boston). It went for Brown 52-47 in 2010—which exactly matches his statewide margin.
I’ll gladly accept your correction; you’re defining the areas much better than my over-generalization.