Tonight was the worst ass-kicking any presidential candidate has ever received in a debate in the history of presidential debates. Mitt Romney was slaughtered. And let me explain why.
Ordinarily, the Democratic candidate does much better on substance than the Republican. This has certainly been true since at least 1992, including in the vice-presidential debates. But the problem is that the majority of the voting public is not well-versed enough on substance to know who is telling the truth or which statements are realistic and which are ridiculous. I don’t say this to denigrate the intelligence of the American electorate; it’s just a fact that most people can’t devote enough time to politics to have informed opinions about policy. That’s particularly true of foreign policy.
As a result, it was possible for George W. Bush to make a fool of himself and still win a debate against Al Gore because Al Gore acted like a jerk. It was possible for John Kerry to completely decimate George W. Bush three times and still not win the election. And it was possible for Sarah Palin to appear on stage with Joe Biden without the entire Republican Party being struck by a lightning bolt. The reason Mitt Romney lost bigger tonight than any candidate in history is because he lost on every measure other than substance and he lost on substance, too.
Simply put, Mitt Romney was the beta-dog all night in every exchange. Obama never took his eyes off him. He never failed to attack. Romney was reduced to agreeing with Obama on half the questions. Romney got pushed around by the moderator. His demeanor was weak. His expression was weak. His arguments were weak. If this were a 12-round heavyweight bout, Romney lost every round.
Now, the spin from the so-called “savvy” Republicans will be that Romney softened his position and thereby tacked to the middle. He was the candidate of “peace” and he “didn’t get dragged to the right.” I think we have all seen that these debates are not won and lost by how the candidates position themselves ideologically. They are won and lost by which candidate dominates the other candidate.
Winning on substance is preferable to losing on substance, but it has proved to be no substitute for being both more formidable and more likable. Obama was both tonight.
Having said that, I also told you before the debate started that Obama probably couldn’t move the fundamentals of the race much unless Romney committed a titanic gaffe. Romney didn’t do that.
So, despite trouncing Romney in a way that has never been done before, I do not think Obama will suddenly see a massive shift in the polls. What he will see is a modest bump in the polls. But, God willing, that will be enough to win.
Post-debate GOP spin appears to center on the notion that Romney already won the election in the first debate and is still riding that momentum, and that he “passed the commander-in-chief test” tonight, although they’ve said that at the end of every debate.
Well, it does certainly appear that he is still riding the first debate momentum. Which makes it all the more frustrating that a single debate served, in large part, to turn this into a neck and neck race.
Maddening that we are in this position at this point in the race.
I still don’t think that first debate turned opinion around. It switched some very soft Obama votes and might have upped Romney’s rise a little. I think this debate and the media yapping that follows will at least freeze the polls and very possibly widen Obama’s margins.
Check out Nate Silver’s trend lines and you’ll see that since Mitt’s post-first-debate high things have been trending back toward Obama.
True, true and true. I’m guessing that Romney looked “Presidential” to some in the first debate, but those were low-information voters. And for some recognizing which is the white guy is enough information.
Nate Silver is a daily must-see for me. Obama’s got a 70% chance of winning this a.m. which makes me pretty confident.
My one doubt is that Republicans might again try to steal the election. And if it’s close enough they may be able to pull it off. That’s why I’d like to see a little more daylight between Obama and Romney.
And I’d like to see a major Justice Department investigation into election fraud next year, and I’d like to see a lot of these Republican thiefs doing time. Instead of breaking rocks they could break electronic voting machines.
Best line of the night:
“…we also have fewer horses and bayonets…we have these ships that go under water, nuclear submarines…”
for which John Kerry tweeted..”President Obama sunk Romney’s battleship”!!
‘America needs Romney’ Makes Crash Landing in Fla
my President rocked.
thank you, Mr. President.
I hate snap polls taken before people have had a chance to sleep on it. BUT CBS put theirs out:
Obama 53, Romney 23, Undecided 24.
So Romney’s floor is 23%.
CNN’s “scientific” poll (they kept shoehorning that descriptor in) found it a win for Obama, 48% to Romney 40%.
Too close for what we saw, you think? But ol’ Wolfie did say that more Republicans tend to tune into a foreign policy debate, a tacit admission that the poll respondents were weighted rightward. Adjust for that imbalance and I bet we’d see numbers closer to the ones you cite.
That’s how all of CNN’s debate snap polls have gone, isn’t it? Heavy on the older Republicans?
That’s certainly my impression.
define modest? Like 1%? 2%?
Yes. Nothing like the big swing after the first debate.
That’s enough to double the margin of victory, then.
Romney tried to achieve credibility by mimicking the real thing. I suspect voters will be able to tell the difference.
Uh, for some reason it posted blank. Sorry, I just meant to say that Romney looked really shaky but I’m not sure it was enough for an uninformed voter to dismiss him from the presidency. And we’re still seeing polls even now that have Romney ahead, it’s that close. So I’ll definitely take a 1% bump!
Romney did look really shaky, and I thought he looked like he was going to puke during most of the debate. I have a slightly different take than you on the impact of that on the uninformed voter.
You can’t make a judgment on content if you don’t know foreign policy, so all that’s left is the optics, and those were supremely bad for Romney last night. He looked weak and scared for nearly the entire foreign policy debate. Tears welled up in his eyes, for less than a minute, which I interpreted as Romney actually having a human moment where he realized that he can’t possibly win this thing.
I haven’t read any headlines yet this morning, but I can’t imagine there is any way this could credibly be played as a win for romney.
I noticed too the tearing in R’s eyes. At first I thought it was just the lighting or something. But he really did look as if he was going to cry, especially with that simpering smile pasted on his face.
when was that, the tears?
I really could not believe Barack’s “we have ships we can land planes on now … that go underwater”, in the tone he’d talk to a 6 year old (Romney’s mental age, in fact). He certainly found a way around the “Angry Black Man” trap he was boxed into before. I’ve never seen anything like that in public debate, completely humiliated the Rbot. I guess what made it so strong is Obama’s manner was based in reality on Romney’s complete lack of knowledge of military matters. Rbot probably shies away from mention of the troops because of his ignorance. “Syria is Iran’s access to the sea” floored me – has he never looked at a map?
My sense is that the tears were in the final third of the debate, and it was definitely at a time when Obama was speaking and Romney was listening.
I plan on watching the debate again today (now that I’m not also following along on a blog at the same time), so unless someone answers your question before then, I will be sure to come back and post the time the tears appeared.
Just remembered that I made a comment about Mitt’s tears on Balloon Juice last night, so I checked it out just now. My comment posted at 10:17 (ET), so I must have noticed the tears shortly before that.
thanks, will check it
All that did was to show the difference in the sharpest possible high contrast. If viewers were paying attention, and the media is at least a little honest, what they saw was a blowhard talking with a pro. Which is why I think this could move the numbers more than Boo and others expect.
Call me optimistic, but I think the race is about to widen pretty quickly, and I think we’ll soon see Obama ahead by a wide margin.
The media has had their horserace, and now it’s time for everybody to scramble to safety and choose the competent man to be their president.
Even canvassing in Indiana last year, when at someone’s door and asking if they knew yet who they were going to vote for, one man said “I guess I’m gonna have to vote for the nigger”.
McCain and Palin were just that bad, and I think people will see that Romney and Ryan are just that bad, too.
For good or for ill, all will be clear very soon.
Just watched the horses and bayonets response again. That was amzing – “we have ships that plans can land on … that go underwater”
Did Mitt react like a bully who’s challenged and just collapse?
I’m no judge of how undecideds and republicans will react to it though
planes, not plans
That may be my favorite presidential debate soundbite of all time. Effectively put Romney down as an analog putz in a digital age.
And of course, it is now a Tumblr meme:
horsesandbayonets
On substance, this was jaw-dropping. Romney did not have one specific proposal the entire night that Obama wasn’t already doing; the only difference was that Romney would “lead” and “be strong” and “lead strong” and “be lead” (or something). In doing so, Romney also managed to disavow just about every statement he’s made on foreign policy for the last 18 months. This wasn’t Etch-a-Sketch; this was erase-the-hard-drive. And if John Bolton is still his chief foreign policy advisor in the morning, you’ll know exactly how much of it he actually meant.
The fact that a performance with this much shameless pandering, vapidness, and outright lying does not instantly disqualify Romney as a commander-in-chief makes me want to weep. The fact that such a performance will hardly even matter, and people (and pundits who should know better) will be more focused on fucking body language, makes me want to slit my wrists. I’d consider moving to Canada, but that’s too close. If Mitt Romney is the most powerful man on the planet, anywhere on this planet is too close.
Two words on Canada: Stephen Harper.
They do speak English in some parts of Belize, however.
I’m a dual citizen, so that’s the immediate option. And, two things about Harper: 1) As obnoxious as he is, he’d be a centrist in US politics; and 2) Provinces have far more autonomy in Canada than states do in the US, so Harper has been able to inflict far less damage than he could have under a US political system. The flip side of that is that even an NDP government in Ottawa – which will never happen – couldn’t stop Alberta’s conservatives, who are about as entrenched as Utah’s, from poisoning the planet with their tar sands development.
Provincial politics is why TransCanada is looking at building the Keystone XL pipeline through Texas to ship oil to Asia. It’d be a lot more direct to build a pipeline to the Pacific (and then also a shorter shipping distance to Asia), but the more liberal government in British Columbia has blocked that route so far. In the U.S., all that would be decided federally.
I was under the impression that the tar sands shit has to be kept heated, so putting it on ships as tar isn’t desirable. They want to send it by pipeline to Texas to be refined and then exported as refined products. Texas is excited because they have the refining capacity for that kind of crap unrefined product. But in any case, little of the refined product from the tar sands will be consumed in North America. Could cause our pump prices to go down and that would be bad for business.
I could be wrong though, or partly wrong. I admit I am no expert on this stuff.
“Conservative” Harper is a flaming left-wing-liberal by US political standards. He even believes in universal healthcare. That communist!
Actually, rethinking this, Harper’s governance (as opposed to his rhetoric) is left of center by US standards.
Canada’s economy never nosedived in 2008 and is stronger than the US’s now, because Harper and his predecessors never deregulated their financial industries (as happened under Clinton and Bush, and both retained a Randian acolyte as chairman of the Fed). ObamaCare? Harper wouldn’t dream of jeopardizing Canada’s single-payer system. Social policy? Gay marriage was legalized – seven years ago – after being passed in Parliament three times under three different governments, and Harper has let that stand, too. Military? Harper has closely followed Obama’s lead on Afghanistan, but had fewer than 100 Canadian troops in Iraq, and that only at US insistence.
It’s easy for people in the US to forget just how skewed the terms “liberal” and “conservative” are in the US compared to almost every other Western democracy. It’s just not the same playing field here.
In Ireland, every single political party would be to the left of Democrats…
My favorite line:
You got that right! In what semi-sane universe would John Bolton have even the tiniest credibility? The fact that he’s a Romney advisor speaks volumes about Romney’s lack of depth, vision, spine, whatever…..
As for erasing the hard drive, that’s what Mitt and his top staff did when leaving the governor’s office: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/06/us-usa-campaign-romney-computers-idUSTRE7B500X20111206
We are really getting so far along toward the election that the opinion polls are self-reflecting and no longer matter quite as much as the ground game.
Because in NC it i the “likely voter” screen that is the focus now of much of the GOTV efforts. I think that the Mittster has pulled his ads as much because there are so few undecideds left with early voting underway.
The debate tonight will cheer a lot of volunteers and get some of them back out canvassing. The real issue with canvassing now is revisiting the not-at-homes. And putting together transportation for those who need it to early voting or on election day.
It won’t move the opinion polls but it will motivate the folks who will get the folks out to move the important poll on Nov. 6.
This. Ground game is everything now. And in that department we have the decided advantage.
I think tonight will solidify Obama’s small lead, maybe even boost it a bit, and keep him in the White House for the next 4 years.
But Congress remains in flux. That’s where I’ll be focusing my GOTV efforts over the next 14 days. I want to send Barack back to DC with the sanest Congress we can muster.
As long as Romney lost OHIO tonight, the rest will take of itself.
Wow, lookie at how CNN is reporting it right now (11:10 p.m.):
Headline: “Forceful Obama bests defensive Romney in foreign policy debate”
Opening paragraphs: “A forceful President Barack Obama put Republican challenger Mitt Romney on the defensive on foreign policy issues on Monday night, scoring a solid victory in their third and final debate just 15 days before Election Day.
Obama displayed the experience of a commander-in-chief in explaining U.S. policy under his leadership and attacking the views and proposals of Romney, a former Massachusetts governor with little experience on overseas issues.
Romney ended up supporting most of the Obama administration’s steps involving hotspots, like the civil war in Syria, and preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, giving the president the advantage in a debate in which his GOP rival needed to question foreign policy of the past four years.”
Yeah. To whatever extent it matters, Obama made Rom look like a little boy proudly showing how well he memorized a bunch of names and numbers. Obama looked like somebody that lived the reality. No comparison. I’m cynical by nature, but can’t believe this won’t change some minds. Nobody hates loose cannons like capitalist types. This pathetic performance by their boy may give even them pause.
I switched over to PBS for the comments after the debate and rolled my eyes so hard at David Brooks that my bangs blew back. He called the debate a tie, with a slight edge…to Romney!
Dream on, Brooks, you asshole. He also chastised Obama for the battleship comment, saying it was harsh and condescending. Oh, boo hoo, you idiot!
The win goes to President Obama.
Wow. I guess he’s dropped all pretension to be anything but a rightwing shill. Time for him to move over to Fox and make an honest person of himself (in a manner of speaking).
Brooks likes to play at being above it all, and every once in a while he’ll say something not totally wrong, but when crunch time comes he’s sure to show his true colors as a right wing hack. He’s just a tool, a useful cog in the noise machine and I think he knows it.
Brooks can be totally deconstructed here:
http://driftglass.blogspot.com/
My favorite blog, no offense to the Booman.
Obama A+
Romney C
Schaeffer D
Tonight we saw a master at work in the most impressive debate performance I can remember. I’ll wait til tomorrow to see what the media dorks are saying. Unfortunately it will be their showbiz crap that will leave the final impression. But Obama wrung every last drop out of this night’s potential to do him good.
Takers on what time tomorrow morning Colin Powell will be calling the Obama campaign to offer his endorsement?
9am would seem like a respectable time. Not too early, but early enough to get headlines.
Looks like the bandwagon is filling back up again, huh?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-takes-out-romney-with-middebate-drone-attack,30055/?utm_sourc
e=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=standard-post:headline:default
How long will the Onion plausibly stay in business? 20 years? I’m not sure I’m prepared to ever live in a world without it.
In general I like the Onion, but I could have done without that particular piece. I didn’t think it was funny.
“At press time, President Obama was reportedly wiping his face clean of Romney’s blood and had removed his late opponent’s severed head from his lap to begin his closing remarks.”
Figuratively of course, but that pretty much sums up the debate.
“Simply put, Mitt Romney was the beta-dog all night in every exchange. Obama never took his eyes off him. He never failed to attack.”
Apt analogy. I kept thinking sis’s border collie, or maybe an American eagle, just staring mercilessly at his intended prey. Amazing sight. And he did it all without being an “angry black man”. Masterful.
Just to put the euphoria in perspective…if it’s a close election: (from Jane Mayer, “The Voter Fraud Myth” in the New Yorker):
Count me on the radical left side that will fight, happily, for the slightly-less-Fascist guy running for President.
Oh God how I long for actual revolution.
If only 99% of the population woke up and actually realized how they’ve been screwed over the past 30+ years.
I’d gladly place myself on the cross of inflation if I knew Americans would wake up and destroy the slavery they’ve sold themselves into.
Any time, any day, any year.
I’m a young guy who is supposed to be slightly above the middle, happy to give up all to correct the wrongs since before I was even born.
That should tell you how much things will be changing before you shuffle off this mortal coil.
Smile.
Strangely enough…or perhaps not so strangely, if you are as dedicated a tinfoil hatter as am I…it looks as if the long-run media “verdict” on tonight’s debate is going to be either a toss-up or a narrow win for Obama. Obama actually won on almost every count, from demeanor (Those smirks from Romney!!!) right on through fact-based numbers and experience-based, in-the trenches stories about the difficulty of making life-and-death decisions while in a position of real power. But the media are prolonging the agony.
Why?
Profit, maybe.
Or…a long-run reverse fix.
Maybe.
Maybe Obama should’ve been more…polite…to the Israeli neo-Nazis. Or maybe he was just thrown up there to fail so’s we could all time travel back to the Reagan era one more time once. I really don’t know anymore.
I do know this:
If the R.Zombie wins, we are in a shitload of trouble.
I thought seriously about leaving the U.S. when Nixon won the first time.
I’m thinking again.
Bet on it.
McGovern finally gave up the ghost.
I can relate.
Bet on that as well..
Disgusting, the whole charade.
Simply disgusting.
Later…
AG
Is it possible that Romney really doesn’t know where Iran is? And that it has a thousand mile coastline?
sounded like that to me
Is this the point where rich folks decide to cut their losses? Anybody that doesn’t is once again revealed as a fool. I never expected him to make it this far, but of course they get to create their own reality. Hey what about those zingers?
I almost keeled over at the sight of Mitt the peacenik.
and this is the way the debates end:
Have you seen the Horses and Bayonets Tumblr?
I believe janicket and I are enlisting in the new navy cavalry