Post-Debate Impressions

Tonight was the worst ass-kicking any presidential candidate has ever received in a debate in the history of presidential debates. Mitt Romney was slaughtered. And let me explain why.

Ordinarily, the Democratic candidate does much better on substance than the Republican. This has certainly been true since at least 1992, including in the vice-presidential debates. But the problem is that the majority of the voting public is not well-versed enough on substance to know who is telling the truth or which statements are realistic and which are ridiculous. I don’t say this to denigrate the intelligence of the American electorate; it’s just a fact that most people can’t devote enough time to politics to have informed opinions about policy. That’s particularly true of foreign policy.

As a result, it was possible for George W. Bush to make a fool of himself and still win a debate against Al Gore because Al Gore acted like a jerk. It was possible for John Kerry to completely decimate George W. Bush three times and still not win the election. And it was possible for Sarah Palin to appear on stage with Joe Biden without the entire Republican Party being struck by a lightning bolt. The reason Mitt Romney lost bigger tonight than any candidate in history is because he lost on every measure other than substance and he lost on substance, too.

Simply put, Mitt Romney was the beta-dog all night in every exchange. Obama never took his eyes off him. He never failed to attack. Romney was reduced to agreeing with Obama on half the questions. Romney got pushed around by the moderator. His demeanor was weak. His expression was weak. His arguments were weak. If this were a 12-round heavyweight bout, Romney lost every round.

Now, the spin from the so-called “savvy” Republicans will be that Romney softened his position and thereby tacked to the middle. He was the candidate of “peace” and he “didn’t get dragged to the right.” I think we have all seen that these debates are not won and lost by how the candidates position themselves ideologically. They are won and lost by which candidate dominates the other candidate.

Winning on substance is preferable to losing on substance, but it has proved to be no substitute for being both more formidable and more likable. Obama was both tonight.

Having said that, I also told you before the debate started that Obama probably couldn’t move the fundamentals of the race much unless Romney committed a titanic gaffe. Romney didn’t do that.

So, despite trouncing Romney in a way that has never been done before, I do not think Obama will suddenly see a massive shift in the polls. What he will see is a modest bump in the polls. But, God willing, that will be enough to win.