The Truth About the Poll-Skewing Theory

I hope all of you understand why the Republicans suddenly came up with a pseudoscientific theory that all the public polling firms are skewed toward Obama and that Romney is going to win convincingly. They didn’t launch this theory during the summer. They launched it about a week before the first voters started going to the polls in places like Iowa. They launched it just before most states cut off new voter registrations.

Here’s the deal. Nate Silver, the country’s preeminent statistical interpreter of polls, says that Mitt Romney would have a 1.9% chance of winning if the election were held today. In truth, a small part of the election is being held today. Voters are already voting. If the people on the right began to absorb the hopelessness of Romney’s cause, they would have no motivation to register to vote. They would have no motivation to register other people to vote. It’s just a psychological fact that people are less likely to go vote for a sure loser. People will begin to digest the fact that Obama is getting a second term, and their activism and enthusiasm will wither on the vine.

It’s also a psychological fact that people are way more motivated to vote for president than they are for Senate and House races. When people find better things to do on election day than vote for Mitt Romney, they also fail to vote for all the other Republicans on the ballot.

Both sides know this. It’s why the Democrats are throwing these polling numbers so aggressively in the Republicans’ faces. We’re trying to demoralize them. And the reason the right is feeding their base these lies about the polls is because they are trying to prevent their base from being demoralized. But this isn’t an example of “both sides do it.” The Democrats are telling the truth. The president has an eleven-point lead in the swing states, and has reached an untouchable 52% in those contests. Mitt Romney is getting his ass kicked. This isn’t hype or hyperbole. The Republicans, however, are just lying to their base.

Lying to their base has become an essential tool in their voter turnout strategy. Unlike in the debates, where the game is to lower expectations for your candidate so that they can exceed them, the goal with the polls is to increase expectations so that field workers will keep their morale up and apathy and resignation won’t set in.

The poll skewing theory really isn’t even about the presidential race, which is, barring a miracle, already lost. It’s about preventing Romney’s campaign from collapsing so badly that he has severely negative coattails in House and Senate races.

If the truth gets out, that’s exactly what will happen. Therefore, it’s time to wage another all-out war against the truth.

The Blowout Scenario & The Emerging Democratic Majority

Michael Tomasky, typically a cautious commentator—as are so many liberals his age (once burned, twice shy)—indulged himself over the weekend* with imagining what might happen if Pres. Obama wins re-election in a landslide.  And by landslide, Tomasky means more states than four years ago:

…let’s say Obama wins all the blues and takes every swing state. That’s 347 electoral votes. And it’s not at all implausible.  But what I’m talking about here is one further and devastating twist of the knife. Let’s say here that Romney really collapses, and Obama picks off one state no one expected: …let’s say Arizona. All those old people somehow rise up against Paul Ryan. That’s 358.

If that happens, Tomasky says, four things are likely to follow as a result:

       

  1. a “marvelously amusing war of recriminations” among Republicans, with the next-time-we-need-to-nominate-a-real-conservative faction winning;
  2.    

  3. congressional Republicans will become less obstinate;
  4.    

  5. the “fiscal cliff” is averted by a “grand bargain” that includes tax increases and spending cuts (some that Democrats don’t want, e.g., Medicare);
  6.    

  7. the “political balance of the country changes” from 50-50 to 54-46.

Tomasky reminds readers that he doesn’t think an Obama blowout is likely to happen and concedes that “while my fourth change, I confess, is a tad wishful, the first three are completely in the realm of the possible, even if Obama wins more narrowly than I’ve laid out above“.

For what it’s worth, in the event of a big Obama win—even a win in which he loses, say, Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina from 2008—I think #4 is more likely to happen than #2 or #3.  (#1 is definitely happening, even if Obama wins by 50.1% – 49.9% in the popular vote and 270-268 in the electoral college.)

Why?  Because in this case demographics is destiny, and the Democratic coalition (young, college-educated, minorities, single women) is growing while the Republican coalition continues to shrink.  Every year, 4 million citizens reach voting age, and they vote Democratic by a 3-2 margin (conservatively speaking).  Meanwhile, about 2.5 million Americans die each year and most of them are over 65—the most heavily Republican part of the electorate.

Sanity may or may not return to the House Republican caucus in the next 100 days, but—barring some unexpected catastrophe—the emerging Democratic majority is going to continue to emerge.

*The pundit’s equivalent of a 3 scoop ice cream sundae with the works.

Crossposted at: https:/masscommons.wordpress.com

Jim Crow Marches North

It sounds like the judge dealing with the Pennsylvania Jim Crow law is going to do something stupid. Rather than place a broad injunction against enforcement of the law, he’s going to basically render it toothless. Under the law, if you cannot produce a valid state-approved photo identification, you can still cast a provisional ballot. Then you have six days to produce a valid photo ID. If you don’t, your provisional ballot will be tossed. It sounds like the judge realizes that the six-day window will wrongfully disenfranchise tens of thousands of (mostly) Democrats, so he’s probably going to say that provisional ballots should be counted.

This is stupid. It will dissuade people from voting, it will cause confusion, and it will skew the election night results in an extreme Republican direction. There is no reason to make people cast provisional ballots if their votes are automatically going to be counted. A ruling like this is still an attempt to sway the result of the election, including the perception of who won on election night.

Yet, it might be good enough to pass muster with the state’s Supreme Court.

This one’s for you, Boo

TomDispatch: Tomgram: Rebecca Solnit, We Could Be Heroes

Can you imagine how far the Civil Rights Movement would have gotten, had it been run entirely by complainers for whom nothing was ever good enough? To hell with integrating the Montgomery public transit system when the problem was so much larger!  

Picture Gandhi’s salt marchers bitching all the way to the sea, or the Zapatistas, if Subcomandante Marcos was merely the master kvetcher of the Lacandon jungle, or an Aung San Suu Kyi who conducted herself like a caustic American pundit. Why did the Egyptian revolutionary who told me about being tortured repeatedly seem so much less bitter than many of those I run into here who have never suffered such harm?

There is idealism somewhere under this pile of bile, the pernicious idealism that wants the world to be perfect and is disgruntled that it isn’t — and that it never will be. That’s why the perfect is the enemy of the good. Because, really, people, part of how we are going to thrive in this imperfect moment is through élan, esprit de corps, fierce hope, and generous hearts.

We talk about prefigurative politics, the idea that you can embody your goal. This is often discussed as doing your political organizing through direct-democratic means, but not as being heroic in your spirit or generous in your gestures.

Left-Wing Vote Suppression

One manifestation of this indiscriminate biliousness is the statement that gets aired every four years: that in presidential elections we are asked to choose the lesser of two evils. Now, this is not an analysis or an insight; it is a cliché, and a very tired one, and it often comes in the same package as the insistence that there is no difference between the candidates. You can reframe it, however, by saying: we get a choice, and not choosing at all can be tantamount in its consequences to choosing the greater of two evils.

But having marriage rights or discrimination protection or access to health care is not the lesser of two evils. If I vote for a Democrat, I do so in the hopes that fewer people will suffer, not in the belief that that option will eliminate suffering or bring us to anywhere near my goals or represent my values perfectly. Yet people are willing to use this “evils” slogan to wrap up all the infinite complexity of the fate of the Earth and everything living on it and throw it away.

I don’t love electoral politics, particularly the national variety. I generally find such elections depressing and look for real hope to the people-powered movements around the globe and subtler social and imaginative shifts toward more compassion and more creativity. Still, every four years we are asked if we want to have our foot trod upon or sawed off at the ankle without anesthetic. The usual reply on the left is that there’s no difference between the two experiences and they prefer that Che Guevara give them a spa pedicure. Now, the Che pedicure is not actually one of the available options, though surely in heaven we will all have our toenails painted camo green by El Jefe.

Before that transpires, there’s something to be said for actually examining the differences.  In some cases not choosing the trod foot may bring us all closer to that unbearable amputation. Or maybe it’s that the people in question won’t be the ones to suffer, because their finances, health care, educational access, and so forth are not at stake.

An undocumented immigrant writes me, “The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with.” Or as a Nevada activist friend put it, “Oh my God, go be sanctimonious in California and don’t vote or whatever, but those bitching radicals are basically suppressing the vote in states where it matters.”

Presidential electoral politics is as riddled with corporate money and lobbyists as a long-dead dog with maggots, and deeply mired in the manure of the status quo — and everyone knows it. (So stop those news bulletins, please.) People who told me back in 2000 that there was no difference between Bush and Gore never got back to me afterward.

I didn’t like Gore, the ex-NAFTA-advocate and pro-WTO shill, but I knew that the differences did matter, especially to the most vulnerable among us, whether to people in Africa dying from the early impacts of climate change or to the shift since 2000 that has turned our nation from a place where more than two-thirds of women had abortion rights in their states to one where less than half of them have those rights. Liberals often concentrate on domestic policy, where education, health care, and economic justice matter more and where Democrats are sometimes decent, even lifesaving, while radicals are often obsessed with foreign policy to the exclusion of all else.

I’m with those who are horrified by Obama’s presidential drone wars, his dismal inaction on global climate treaties, and his administration’s soaring numbers of deportations of undocumented immigrants. That some of you find his actions so repugnant you may not vote for him, or that you find the whole electoral political system poisonous, I also understand.

At a demonstration in support of Bradley Manning this month, I was handed a postcard of a dead child with the caption “Tell this child the Democrats are the lesser of two evils.” It behooves us not to use the dead for our own devices, but that child did die thanks to an Obama Administration policy.  Others live because of the way that same administration has provided health insurance for millions of poor children or, for example, reinstated environmental regulations that save thousands of lives.

You could argue that to vote for Obama is to vote for the killing of children, or that to vote for him is to vote for the protection for other children or even killing fewer children. Virtually all U.S. presidents have called down death upon their fellow human beings. It is an immoral system.

You don’t have to participate in this system, but you do have to describe it and its complexities and contradictions accurately, and you do have to understand that when you choose not to participate, it better be for reasons more interesting than the cultivation of your own moral superiority, which is so often also the cultivation of recreational bitterness.

Bitterness poisons you and it poisons the people you feed it to, and with it you drive away a lot of people who don’t like poison. You don’t have to punish those who do choose to participate. Actually, you don’t have to punish anyone, period.

We Could Be Heroes

We are facing a radical right that has abandoned all interest in truth and fact. We face not only their specific policies, but a kind of cultural decay that comes from not valuing truth, not trying to understand the complexities and nuances of our situation, and not making empathy a force with which to act. To oppose them requires us to be different from them, and that begins with both empathy and intelligence, which are not as separate as we have often been told.

Being different means celebrating what you have in common with potential allies, not punishing them for often-minor differences. It means developing a more complex understanding of the matters under consideration than the cartoonish black and white that both left and the right tend to fall back on.

Dismissiveness is a way of disengaging from both the facts on the ground and the obligations those facts bring to bear on your life. As Michael Eric Dyson recently put it, “What is not good are ideals and rhetorics that don’t have the possibility of changing the condition that you analyze. Otherwise, you’re engaging in a form of rhetorical narcissism and ideological self-preoccupation that has no consequence on the material conditions of actually existing poor people.”

Nine years ago I began writing about hope, and I eventually began to refer to my project as “snatching the teddy bear of despair from the loving arms of the left.” All that complaining is a form of defeatism, a premature surrender, or an excuse for not really doing much. Despair is also a form of dismissiveness, a way of saying that you already know what will happen and nothing can be done, or that the differences don’t matter, or that nothing but the impossibly perfect is acceptable. If you’re privileged you can then go home and watch bad TV or reinforce your grumpiness with equally grumpy friends.

The desperate are often much more hopeful than that — the Coalition of Immokalee Workers, that amazingly effective immigrant farmworkers’ rights group, is hopeful because quitting for them would mean surrendering to modern-day slavery, dire poverty, hunger, or death, not cable-TV reruns. They’re hopeful and they’re powerful, and they went up against Taco Bell, McDonald’s, Safeway, Whole Foods, and Trader Joe’s, and they won.

The great human-rights activist Harvey Milk was hopeful, even though when he was assassinated gays and lesbians had almost no rights (but had just won two major victories in which he played a role). He famously said, “You have to give people hope.”   

In terms of the rights since won by gays and lesbians, where we are now would undoubtedly amaze Milk, and we got there step by step, one pragmatic and imperfect victory at a time — with so many more yet to be won. To be hopeful means to be uncertain about the future, to be tender toward possibilities, to be dedicated to change all the way down to the bottom of your heart.

There are really only two questions for activists: What do you want to achieve?  And who do you want to be?  And those two questions are deeply entwined. Every minute of every hour of every day you are making the world, just as you are making yourself, and you might as well do it with generosity and kindness and style.

That is the small ongoing victory on which great victories can be built, and you do want victories, don’t you? Make sure you’re clear on the answer to that, and think about what they would look like.

Wistful Thought

I’m one of the least materialistic people you will ever meet. Probably dysfunctionally so. I occasionally fantasize about what I would do if I won the lottery, and I admit to the ambition to one day have a place in the northern lake region of Italy. But I mostly wonder how I could use that money to help people. I have never measured my self-worth in financial terms. Still, a small part of me is disturbed that Glenn Beck is going to make roughly $60 million this year, and I am going to make squat. The man doesn’t even have a platform on a major television station anymore.

I know Glenn Beck has more talent than I do. I know that he’s more entertaining than I’ll ever be. But it just seems like we basically have the same job, which is talking about politics. I have a pretty good record of predicting what will happen, which is why I have my modest audience. Glenn Beck has a record of being totally wrong about everything always. It’s not that I want Glenn Beck’s money. I just wish we all lived in a world where the way people are rewarded was a little different.