Obama’s Organization is Better

Setting aside any shenanigans the Republicans pulled in Ohio in 2004, the takeaway (as I remember it) was that Kerry had met his turnout model target but was overwhelmed by an unanticipated level of turnout in the rural areas of the state that was driven by evangelical organization. Karl Rove had made sure that an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment was on the ballot as a carrot for the churchfolk, and they turned out to approve it with 62% of the vote.

So, in that sense, I agree with Kevin Drum that a big part of the Republicans’ turnout machine is not going to show up if you are just looking at how many field offices Romney has established. On the other hand, this year there are no ballot measures in Ohio to act like catnip to the evangelicals. This year, the ticket includes a Mormon and an Ayn Rand/Catholic, instead of a southern Methodist. If the GOP is relying on the self-motivation and self-organization of a bunch of evangelical communities, they may not get as much of a boost out of that this time around.

There is also the issue of efficiency. A centralized organization allows you to take the voter list and winnow it down. You don’t want to be wasting time contacting voters who are definitely going to vote for you or who have already voted. You don’t want to knock on the door of someone who has already told one of your organizers to get lost. You want a contact list that is small and manageable that has as much meaningful information about the voters as possible. That’s why the Obama team pushes early voting so hard. Once someone votes, you can take them off the list and concentrate on people you actually need to reach.

When you are trying to coordinate with a bunch of megachurches, there is simply no way to match the kind of winnowing and efficiency with which the Obama Team operates. So, even if you have an equal number of bodies in the streets and on the phones, you won’t be anywhere near even. To give a real life example of what I am talking about, in 2008 I spent election day knocking doors in Coatesville, Pennsylvania for Obama for America. We had a great walk-list. But we were tripping over the heels of SEIU volunteers who were working the same turf without updated walk-lists. The only difference between us is that we had less doors to knock. We were doing the same job, but the SEIU was doing it less efficiently. We had that turf covered, so their effort was basically unnecessary. That was a failure of coordination between the campaign and the SEIU which may have been a result of some legal barriers to coordination. But the point still stands. If we had that minor problem of inefficiency and redundancy, the Republicans will have that problem on steroids.

The Republicans are relying on the RNC to do most of their voter mobilization, but the RNC is working mainly out of congressional or local party headquarters whose main responsibility is to elect state officials or U.S. congressmen. It’s important to realize that the GOP has the megachurches doing supplemental work for them just as it’s important to keep in mind that the unions are doing supplemental work for OFA. But it is safe to say that Obama’s turnout operation is and will continue to kick the ass of Romney’s turnout operation. And that should be good for two to three points in the final outcome. However, that doesn’t mean two to three points better than the polls indicate. A lot of Obama’s organizational advantage is already captured by the polls because they have already improved registration ratios and they have already made a ton of voter contacts, and they have already built up an early voting lead. But their advantage will continue to help them every single day the polls are open, too.

The Best Laid Plans Of Mice And Men/Obama and Frankenstorm Sandy

Obama’s top campaign adviser David Axelrod on the coming 10 days before voting begins. (Italics mine):

The Obama campaign sees no major event that can now alter the trajectory of the election, the president’s top adviser told The Huffington Post in an interview Thursday. And with President Barack Obama holding slim but discernable leads in several critical battleground states, there is a continued sense of confidence that a second term is in the offing.

“In my view we have got the lead and the ball and now it is a matter of executing the final 10 days of the campaign,” David Axelrod said in a telephone interview.

“Governor Romney profited from that first debate primarily by recouping those voters who he had lost in his dismal month of September when they had such an uninspired convention and when the 47 percent tape came out,” Axelrod continued. “But that is all that happened. We’ve had two debates since. I haven’t seen — in the things that I have looked at — I haven’t seen momentum since that time. I think the race has settled in, and it has settled in with us with a small but durable and discernable lead in these battleground states both in the aggregate and individually. The question is how does he change that dynamic now? There is no big intervening event.”

He should have said “If there is no big intervening event.”

Because there is going to be one.

Hurricane Sandy.

Read on for more.
When watching the eternal farce that we laughingly call politics I often wonder whether the real deal is a sort of “Act of God” thing. We all run around willy-nilly, conservatives and liberals/RatPublicans and DemocRats throwing political bombs at one another as if any of it made a bit of difference. And then the universe throws a monkey wrench into everybody’s plans and what’s going to happen next simply happens. Afterwards the winners take the credit and the losers hole up to plot and plan for next time.

When you get right down to it, Bush II’s real failure was due to Hurricane Katrina’s path through New Orleans. 100 miles in any direction and the U.S. electorate would never have awakened to the utter incompetency of his regime. Fuck up in Iraq? Get caught in an unphotographable economic storm? Play S+M games with dogs and prisoners in Abu Ghraib? What the hell, we’ve still got out FatBurgers and SUVs, right? Where’s the problem? But when the shit hits the fan right next door and the designated cleanup crews don’t have enough manpower or Febreze to make the problem disappear quickly?

Bush guitar

What the fuck!!!??? Who is this asshole!!!

What happens on Election Day is quite likely to be defined by how the President appears in response to this oncoming crisis.

David Axelrod, his fucking moustache and the rest of the 1% spinners who populate the DC politocracy don’t have a clue about what’s about to go down. What have they got to fear? The’re insured up the yin-yang and protected like the royalty that they really are not.

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They sit in their office suites, their bedroom community McMansions and their on-the-road five star hotels and pontificate about how “there is no big intervening event” in the forseeable future. What do they know…or really care…about the millions of underfunded people who stand to lose everything if the Frankenstorm goes ballistic in their areas? They’re covered, and so are their clients.

Meanwhile…the universe enforces its own evolutionary needs any which way it must.

Hunker down, Dem folks. Your “campaign” in blowin’ in the wind right now. Bet on it. All’s it’s gonna take is one big gust to blow the election for or against Obama. And who’s really doing the blowing?

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God’s trusty helper, Old Man Weather.

Bet on it.

Maybe you do need a weatherman to know which way the wind’s a’blowin’.

The political wind, anyway.

Hunker down, folks.

Hunker down and pray.

Booman writes in his article You Can’t Plan for Life:

For four years I have been anticipating an election that will take place in 10 days. I have been thinking about it and writing about it and strategizing about it and planning for it. But it looks like I will be spending the week before this election preparing for, enduring, and recovering from a storm without precedent.

How weird is that?

Not weird at all, Booman.

Not weird at all.

Mark Twain wrote “Everbyody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” He might also have written “”Everbody talks about politics, but the universe does do something about it.”

And in his wonderful poem “To A Mouse” Robert Burns wrote :

But Mousie, thou are no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men,
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!

Still, thou art blest, compar’d wi’ me!
The present only toucheth thee:
But Och! I backward cast my e’e,
On prospects drear!
An’ forward, tho’ I canna see,
I guess an’ fear!

Word.

Guess and fear on, fellow humans.

Guess and fear on.

We are but little mousies in the face of the winds of the universe.

No thy-lanes us.

Let us pray.

Later…

AG

You Can’t Plan for Life

For four years I have been anticipating an election that will take place in 10 days. I have been thinking about it and writing about it and strategizing about it and planning for it. But it looks like I will be spending the week before this election preparing for, enduring, and recovering from a storm without precedent.

How weird is that?

Saturday Painting Palooza Vol.376

Hello again painting fans.


This week I will be continuing with the painting of Bell Rock in Sedona, Arizona.  The photo that I’m using is seen directly below.

I’m using my usual acrylic paints on a 9×12 inch gallery-wrapped (frameless) canvas..

 

When last seen, the painting appeared as it does in the photo directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

When we  finished last time, I was rather unhappy with how things were turning out.  I’m feeling better about this piece after making some progress this past week.  I was not looking forward to going back to the foreground.  In preparing to do so, I grabbed two brushes, one rather worn.  That brush proved to be the key to successfully painting the evergreens seen in the original photo.  The brush has essentially separated into multiple independent strands.  I had originally intended to use it here just to spread some paint but it proved to be perfect for painting brush and shrubs with texture.  The result is perhaps a bit too green but is nicely textured.  As an aside, the butte is probably a bit too bright as well but the consistency has now been carried forward.  Also, the bushes may appear a bit arranged but I was attempting to mirror what appears in the photo.

The current of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

 

I’ll have more progress to show you next week.  See you then.

 

Earlier paintings in this series can be seen here.

 

The Many Kinds of Republican Rape

The many types of rape via Republicans:

Gift from God Rape
Forcible Rape
Honest Rape
Easy Rape
Emergency Rape

Want the details? Watch the video by Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks:

And don’t forget the Sodomized Virgin Rape (via Digby)

And I used to think Republicans (well of the male politician variety) had no imagination. I just didn’t realize you had to get them thinking creatively about things that apparently they obsess about – a lot.

Losing My Health Insurance

Thanks to the bankruptcy of my wife’s former employer, it is highly likely that we will lose our health care coverage on January 1. 2013. The court hearing on the company’s motion to do so is scheduled for November 29th. Because it has the support of the creditors’ committee and the Committee for Retirees, it is likely to be granted.

But first, a little digression. I’m unemployable because of a disability as is my wife. My daughter has ADHD and takes medication for her anxiety and attention deficit hyoeractivity disorder. My son is currently working as a “Temp” at a factory, so he has no health benefits of his own.

Follow me below the fold as I explain my family’s situation further and why this election matters a great deal to me.

(cont.)

I have an autoimmune disorder known as Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Associated Periodic Syndrome. However, my disorder was not properly diagnosed in 1998 when I had to stop working. I had seen numerous specialists, all of whom had differing diagnoses on what was wrong with me. I filed a claim with my law firm’s disability insurer. Unfortunately, our disability policy was set up as an employee benefits plan, covered by ERISA, a federal law that cover many employee benefit plans. For those of you who d0on know what that means, let me explain it for you. The insurance company is the trustee of the benefits plan and can deny any claim for benefits so long as it does not act arbitrarily or capriciously a very low standard to satisfy in federal court:

When a court reviews a decision under an arbitrary and capricious standard, the court reviews the insurance company’s file to determine whether the insurance company abused it’s discretion. In the typical claim for benefits under a disability insurance policy, unless the claimant takes appropriate action, the insurance file will contain very little information in support of the application and overwhelming evidence that supports a denial of the application.

Essentially, disability insurance companies have put together a business plan that maximizes premiums and minimizes the payments of benefits to the people covered under those insurance policies. The standard claim process provides for a certification by the person’s treating physician that they are unable to perform their previous occupation. Typical forms that the physician is asked to fill out are one to three pages long and provide very little information regarding the claimant or his/her claim. Typically, an insurance company will ask for one years worth of medical records and then review this information to determine whether benefits should be paid. It is common for these companies to hire outside physicians to read these records and then write lengthy reports in support of a denial.

This is what happened to me. The lack of a definitive diagnosis and my confusing array of symptoms ranging from auto-immune inflammation of my joints and connective tissues, severe gastrointestinal symptoms, etc., allowed Insurance company who was the Trustee of our ERISA Disability Benefits Plan to send my medical records to another doctor employed by the Insurance company, a doctor I never met (and one who never discussed my case with my doctors or with me). He declared that I was not disabled. We sued and lost in Federal Court, because the Judge said that though it appeared to him I was disabled he could not say that insurance company who was the trustee for my firm’s disability benefit plan acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” since its decision as “Trustee” was based on the review by a doctor they hired who never examined me.

I didn’t apply for Social Security benefits because I was advised I had little chance to obtain those benefits after losing the suit with my disability insurer, and for much the same reason – no definitive diagnosis of my condition at that time. The fact that my disability insure had already ruled against me also hurt me.

Luckily my wife had a good job. Well, until she was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. She had immediate surgery, and followed a regimen of radiation and two different chemotherapy medications, one while she was in radiation. This destroyed what little was left of her pancreas so she is dependent on insulin to survive. However, far worse was the damage done by one of her chemo drugs. After six months, my wife developed severe cognitive dysfunction caused by the drug she used during her radiation: Fluorouracil also known as 5FU. After some google research I learned that the use of 5FU causes the following damage to brain tissue:

We found that clinically relevant concentrations of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU; a widely used chemotherapeutic agent) were toxic for both central nervous system (CNS) progenitor cells and non-dividing oligodendrocytes in vitro and in vivo. Short-term systemic administration of 5-FU caused both acute CNS damage and a syndrome of progressively worsening delayed damage to myelinated tracts of the CNS associated with altered transcriptional regulation in oligodendrocytes and extensive myelin pathology. Functional analysis also provided the first demonstration of delayed effects of chemotherapy on the latency of impulse conduction in the auditory system, offering the possibility of non-invasive analysis of myelin damage associated with cancer treatment.

Let me explain that in lay person’s terms. Myelin is a fatty substance that coats the neurons in your brain. It acts much like the insulation around electrical wiring. Once the myelin in my wife’s brain began to be stripped away, her brain essentially short circuited. Many connections between neurons from the right hemisphere of her brain to the left simply were destroyed. She literally could hold her car keys in one hand and believe she had lost them. To be blunt she incurred significant brain damage. Loss of short term memory. An inability to concentrate on even the simplest tasks, severe anxiety and mood disorders. Plus she could no longer filter out all the stimuli that your brain and mine normally ignores. She became overwhelmed in crowds, in stores, and even by conversations she couldn’t follow. This led to panic attacks, angry outbursts of raw emotion, and other issues too numerous to mention.

However, since her disabilities were well documented after physiological and psychological testing,her disability claims were granted. The insurance companies and the Social Security bureaucracy had no good faith reason to deny that she was disabled. Our family’s health insurance through her company continued even after she was officially retired due to her multiple disabilities. Until now.

Two years after my wife was adjudged she was disabled, she became eligible for Medicare, but our family health plan for myself, my daughter (17) and my son (23) continued. Thank you President Obama, by the way, for getting health care reform passed so my son could continue on our insurance plan past the age of 21. I believe that my wife will still be able to receive COBRA benefits after our family health care plan is terminated by the bankruptcy court, which means we can pay for the same health care plan for a period of 18 months after December 31, 2012 (this assumes that my wife being covered by Medicare does not eliminate her right to receive COBRA benefits for our family). It isn’t a great plan but it is better than nothing. Read this blog post to understand the cost we pay out of pocket each year despite our health care coverage. To summarize, we pay about 1/5 of our gross income each year for health insurance. Under COBRA, that cost will likely go up.

But here’s where the problem for us begins. My wife is at risk if Romney wins and has a majority Republican Congress in both houses (or maybe even one), since we know the Republicans want to cut back or eliminate many Medicare services. Second, my son is at risk of immediately of losing his health care coverage if Republicans repeal the Affordable Care Act, as they have said they will do. My daughter and I would still be covered for 18 months through COBRA, but after that we’d be on our own. We both have pre-existing conditions. My daughter can probably get health insurance until she is done with college, but whether it would cover her medications for her ADHD and anxiety disorders I do not know. I would have to look for insurance as a single person with a history of various medical problems. Outside the exchanges being created by the ACA, I doubt I could find a plan we could afford.

Thus, if the ACA (i.e., Obamacare) is repealed, I’d have to go without health insurance until I became eligible for Medicare, assuming Medicare in it’s present form exists when I reach 65, or as seems likely, 67 years of age. I am currently 56. Many of the drugs I take to alleviate my symptoms lower my immune system defenses, making me more likely to get cancer or severe viral and bacterial infections. I’m not sure I would live to reach Medicare eligibility because I refuse to allow all my life’s savings to be used up to keep me alive should I get a life threatening illness. My wife will need every penny we have saved over the years for personal in home care, since she cannot care for herself. I also want to be able to pass something on to my children, because considering the likely future they will inherit, they will need all the resources possible simply to survive.

So, this election is very personal for me. I suppose it was always very personal on so many issues, but knowing that, should Romney and the Republicans prevail, my ability to obtain any health insurance for myself and my children, even crappy insurance, will probably cease to exist brought home to me the importance of this election in a way I hadn’t felt before.

And I know that many, many Americans will be in the same position as I should the “worst case scenario” occur. In 2014, millions of Americans will hopefully have access to insurance that they do not have now, thanks to the insurance exchanges the ACA requires. If those exchanges are not set up, for whatever reason, than millions of lives will be at risk, and many people without insurance will die when — not if — they get a serious, life threatening illness or injury. All because they won’t have the means to afford the care that could save their lives. To save them, to give them the chance for decent health care that people in every developed country in the world, except ours, take for granted, President Obama must be elected, and so must as many Democrats to Congress as possible.

One family’s plight doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. I realize that. But we aren’t talking about one family, here, are we. So do whatever you have to do to get out the vote, to fight the well documented voter suppression efforts of the Republicans, and win this election for Democrats. Yes, Democrats are fallible, often flawed, often gutless, and often weak and timid politicians. But the Republicans would, as the President, so eloquently put it, take us back to the economic policies of the 1920’s and the social policies of the 1950’s. Mitt and his family would do very well under those circumstances, but 95% of our country would suffer horribly. More jobs lost, more wars, more income inequality, an ever declining mortality rate, and the destruction of the middle class. Only the brainwashed zealots of the far right, the tea party extremists, and billionaires who control the other major political party in this country would welcome such an outcome.

Good luck to us all.

U.S. Senate Predictions

Here are my predictions for who will win in individual Senate races. An asterisk indicates a non-incumbent. A ‘D’ and ‘R’ or an ‘Ind’ indicates a change in party. At the end, I’ll tally it up and I’ll discuss individual races and consequences in the comments.

Arizona- Richard Carmona* D+1
California- Diane Feinstein
Connecticut- Chris Murphy* D+1
Delaware- Tom Carper
Florida- Bill Nelson
Hawaii- Mazie Hirono*
Indiana- Joe Donnelly* D+1
Maine- Angus King* Ind+1
Maryland- Ben Cardin
Massachusetts- Elizabeth Warren* D+1
Michigan- Debbie Stabenow
Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar
Mississippi- Roger Wicker
Missouri- Claire McCaskill
Montana- Danny Rehberg* R+1
Nebraska- Deb Fischer* R+1
Nevada- Shelley Berkley* D+1
New Jersey- Bob Menendez
New Mexico- Martin Heinrich*
New York- Kirsten Gillibrand
North Dakota- Heidi Heitkamp*
Ohio- Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey Jr.
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse
Tennessee- Bob Corker
Texas- Ted Cruz*
Utah- Orrin Hatch
Virginia- Tim Kaine*
Vermont- Bernie Sanders
Washington- Maria Cantwell
West Virginia- Joe Manchin

Wisconsin- Tammy Baldwin*
Wyoming- John Barrasso

If my predictions are correct, we will lose one Independent in Joe Lieberman and gain one in Maine’s Angus King, but since King will caucus with the Democrats, there will no change in the D/R split. In other words, Connecticut’s Chris Murphy is technically a pickup for the Democrats, but not really. Bernie Sanders and Angus King will be independents who support Harry Reid as Majority Leader and who sit on the left side in committee hearings. I have the Democrats (if King is included) picking up five seats currently held by Republicans and the Republicans picking up two seats currently held by Democrats.

The current composition of the Senate is 51 Democrats + 2 Dem-caucusing Independents + 47 Republicans. The new numbers would be 54 Democrats + 2 Dem-caucusing Independents + 44 Republicans.

There would be fourteen freshmen senators (for a 14% turnover) and eleven of them would be Democrats while only three of them would be Republicans. The only three incumbents to be defeated would be Democrat Jon Tester of Montana and Republicans Dean Heller of Nevada and Scott Brown of Massachusetts. Sen. Heller was appointed to his seat.

The bottom line would be a new Senate with a 56-44 split instead of the current 53-47 split.

The toughest calls for me were Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and North Dakota. I ultimately sided with the Dems in three out of four of those races, but they could be decided in any permutation from a 2-2 split to a 4-0 blowout in either direction. If we lose them all, we come out even at 53-47. If we win them all, we get up to a 57-43 split. Maximum possible outcome is 58 seats if Bob Kerrey continues his surge in Nebraska, and he is coming on strong.

Going into this election season, I though the best the Dems could do is hold onto 52 seats. Right now, my worst case scenario is 53 seats. I think we have to give Patty Murray a hand for kicking John Cornyn’s ass. We still have to count the votes, but I can’t see any outcome that isn’t a gigantic disappointment for the Republican Party.

And, maybe give Jon Tester a hand. He needs it.

The Great Debate

A few weeks ago, a GREAT DEBATE erupted at the Scrapple News Tower: when both parties are beholden to the corporate powers that be, is there any point in voting.

As I’m sure you know, I fall squarely in the “YES, THERE IS A POINT” camp. But we decided to let our star moderate the substance of the debate. And here are the results.

Someday we’ll get paid for this….

Sampling the Latino Vote

I am really skeptical of any analysis that is predicated on the polls being off in one direction or another. In my experience, the average of polls is rarely off by a whole lot. Maybe a couple of points, but when the polls say you are going to lose, you are almost definitely going to lose. In 2004, we tried to console ourselves that the pollsters weren’t picking up enough voters who only used cell phones. That was probably true, but we still lost and the polls still pretty much predicted the result. So, when I see someone arguing that the pollsters aren’t surveying enough Latinos or the right kind of Latinos, I immediately have a negative reaction. However, one example where pollsters were badly wrong was in predicting Harry Reid’s demise in 2010. Using a very similar methodology to what he is using now, Nate Silver gave Reid less than a one-in-six chance of winning reelection.

The presumption that Reid was unelectable rested on a series of public polls, nearly all of which showed Reid behind Angle. Indeed, in October alone the Nevada press reported on 14 surveys, only one of which showed Leader Reid ahead.

It turns out that those polls made three major errors. They did a poor job of separating likely from unlikely voters, they didn’t work hard enough to poll hard-to-reach people, and some of them were precluded by law from contacting cell phones. All three of these errors featured prominently in a major underestimation of the Latino vote. It turns out that people who were resistant to answer phone surveys on the first or second attempt skewed heavily for Reid. And it turned out that Spanish speakers were most likely to use cell phones exclusively and the least likely to respond to phone surveys. And it turned out that Latinos were more likely to vote in general than the pollsters had assumed. As a result, the pollsters missed the result badly and Harry Reid won by six points.

Even within the Latino sample, the pollsters missed something. Naturalized Latinos supported Reid more heavily than native-born Latinos, and they were harder to reach because of a stronger language barrier. This led the pollsters to underestimate how strongly Reid would perform with the Latino community even as they were underestimating their percentage of the electorate.

How many of these mistakes have been addressed by the polling firms in the field right now?