As the pollsters begin to report their final numbers they can no longer put influencing the election over accurately predicting it. That is because Election Day is the only day when these pollsters are accountable. The worse they do on Election Day, the fewer clients they will get and the less influence they will have in the next cycle. So, as if by magic, the Republican outlier polls will begin the “show” a surge for the president and the result can already be seen. The corporate pundits have called the race. A week ago is was “too close to call” and “incredibly close,” but today it is “baked in the cake” and there is “no way” for Romney to win. Absolutely nothing changed. Hurricane Sandy may have shut down the campaign rhetoric for a couple of days but it didn’t suddenly persuade millions of Americans to change their minds about who they intend to vote for. Obama was winning all along, from beginning to end, with never a single day when he would have or could have lost this election. The only real question was whether he could decisively win the argument and expand on his 2008 victory. If I had to guess, right now, I’d say that Obama will come up short of 2008. He will not win Indiana and he will probably fall a point short of 53% of the vote.
It’s a shame because, prior to the first debate where Obama let Romney stand with him on an equal footing, the trajectory was for a blowout election with Arizona coming into view and Missouri not far behind. Romney was staggered and flailing for two straight months and could have been knocked out. Obama let him off the ropes and the price is probably going to be control of the House of Representatives. And that means more dysfunction for two more years. Of course, the president doesn’t deserve all the blame for that. The districts are gerrymandered and corporate money is unlimited and unaccountable, the media isn’t an effective referee, and there are a lot of very gullible and misinformed people in this (and every other) country.
And, who knows? I could be wrong. Maybe we will win back the House.
