When I went to sleep on Election Night 2008, it looked like Al Franken had lost in Minnesota and Jeff Merkley had lost in Oregon, and Mark Begich had lost in Alaska. I was psyched about Obama winning, but I knew we were screwed if he had fallen short of getting 60 senators. As it turned out, the Democrats won all three races, but that didn’t become clear until all the votes were counted (and in Minnesota, recounted and recounted). I point this out for two reasons. First, we may not know who won some senate races for days, weeks, or perhaps even months after Election Day. Second, on the night of November 6th, we will be very relieved to know for certain that Mitt Romney is not going to be our president, but we are going to have to deal with the harsh reality that the Republicans will still have way too much power. There is no way we can get back to a 60 vote supermajority in the Senate and it is looking unlikely that we will retake control of the House. So, I have two pieces of advice. If you are in a position to help someone who is running for Congress, please do so. And, be prepared to support filibuster reform.
Finally, get ready to deal with the reality of a president who is newly elected but who has to make a deal with John Boehner on the fiscal situation. Even if we elect progressives like Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin and Mazie Hirono to the Senate, if the Dems have a good night we will also be electing Angus King and Joe Donnelly and Tim Kaine and Heidi Heitkamp and Richard Carmona and maybe even Bob Kerrey. And if you look at the senators up for reelection in 2014 you will quickly realize that job number one for keeping control of the Senate will be to find candidates who can compete in places like Tennessee and South Carolina and Texas, while holding on to seats in Alaska and Montana and South Dakota and Arkansas and Louisiana.
Progressives need to understand the political landscape so that they don’t enter a second Obama term with the same unrealistic expectations with which they entered the first.
