When Richard Mourdock torpedoed his own campaign by talking about how God intends women to deliver rape babies, a lot of people noted that Mourdock was the only Senate candidate in the country for whom Mitt Romney had cut a television commercial. That is no longer true. Romney has just cut an advertisement in support of Danny Rehberg who is running against Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. That can only be a good sign for Sen. Tester. I am not saying that he welcomes Mitt Romney’s effort on behalf of his opponent, but the ad would not have been created if Rehberg was not in deep jeopardy of losing. When I did my previous predictions for the Senate elections, I predicted that Jon Tester would lose. But I am rethinking that assumption. Of the two most recent polls, one shows the race tied and the other shows Tester up by two points. I have to consider that the strongest available evidence about that status of the race is that Romney just intervened.
On the other hand, I have grown more pessimistic about Shelley Berkley’s chances in Nevada. If she wins, she will outperform her polling substantially. Don’t forget that Harry Reid did exactly that just two years ago. But the early voting advantage the Democrats have amassed in Nevada is underwhelming enough that I think Berkley is in trouble. Rather than predict she will win, I feel more comfortable saying that it will be very, very close.
The only other change I want to make from my last set of predictions is that Bob Kerrey’s chances in Nebraska continue to improve. Today, he is rolling out the endorsement of Chuck Hagel, which I think is probably the most important endorsement he could have received. A recent Omaha World-Herald poll had Kerrey down by only three points. There is no question that Kerrey has all the momentum in the race, but the question is whether or not he will run out of road before he can pass Deb Fischer. I know most progressives are ambivalent at best about Bob Kerrey returning to the Senate, but these are six year terms. Every seat matters. I am not ready to predict that Kerrey will win, but I will no longer be shocked at all if he does.
I still think Richard Carmona will pull it out in Arizona and that the Democrats will pick up seats in Maine, Massachusetts and Indiana. I also think Heidi Heitkamp will win in North Dakota. In other words, my only change is to put Tester into the ‘win’ column and to put Berkley into the ‘loss’ column, but the overall result would be the same. Instead of picking up five seats and losing two, I have us picking up four seats and losing one. And, if Bob Kerrey wins, I have us losing no seats and netting four. So, 56-44 without Kerrey and 57-43 with him.
