It amuses me that Nate Silver has become the subject of such controversy in the waning days of this campaign. Four years ago, he provided the exact same public service but he was easily dismissed as a Cheetos-munching blogger. Give him a job with the New York Times, however, and his analysis is taken seriously by the pundit class. Perhaps the least unpredictable thing about this election was that Rasmussen polls would move in Obama’s direction during the last weekend in order to preserve their credibility. All year long they have been providing polls that are several points more favorable to Romney than any reputable pollsters were finding. They did this to boost morale among the Republicans who actually believe Rasmussen is an accurate pollster and to have an influence on the aggregators (or poll of polls). The media is biased in favor of a close rase because it boosts ratings and click-thrus, so they have been only too happy to report on a race that was never as close as Rasmussen (or Gallup) would have you believe. A great example of this was pointed out by Sam Wang, who recently mocked Chris Cillizza for moving Ohio into his toss-up category because of “the absolute necessity for Romney to win the state if he wants to be president.” How is that for logic? California would be even more helpful than Ohio, so why doesn’t Mr. Cillizza move the Golden State into his toss-up category?
All these biases and shenanigans have been undermined by Nate Silver’s persistent analysis that Obama is ahead and is by far the odds-on favorite to win the election. There has never been a point, all year long, when Romney was favored to win. And every effort to convince people otherwise has been thwarted by the fact that Nate Silver built a model that could account for systemic bias. Rasmussen (and, to some degree, Gallup) kept publishing biased polls and Silver kept adjusting for their bias. He essentially neutralized one of the Republicans’ strongest strategies. So, now, when Rasmussen moves to the middle and is showing a tied race, that really comes out in the model as a three or four point lead for Obama.
Mr. Silver now gives the president a better than 80% chance of winning reelection even though the national polls are still close. And it is making both the Republicans and the pundits go a little nuts. But, don’t worry, the GOP still has voter suppression and misleading ads and robocalls and poll intimidation and corrupt Secretaries of State and suspect vote tabulators and a dozen other tricks up their sleeve. It will have an effect on the margins, but it won’t change Mitt Romney’s sad fate.
