I never really got comfortable reading MattTX’s charts of the projected North Carolina early vote, but I note that his final conclusion is that he has no idea whether Obama will win the state. We can see that a lot of white Democrats have changed their registration to unaffiliated over the last four years, and we can also see a substantial reduction in turnout among whites who have remained Democrats. Turnout among white Republicans is up 9.3 percent. Combined, this paints a bleak picture for Obama in a state he won in 2008 by a mere 14,000 votes. On the other hand, the white share of the vote is down almost 3% and African-American turnout is up 6.4% among registered Democrats and down 6.3% among registered Republicans. Most of the recent polling out of North Carolina shows the race tied or Romney ahead by a point or two. Michelle Obama is appearing in the state today, which would indicate some belief on the campaign’s part that it is still in play. Most people I talk to seem to feel that OFA-North Carolina is the best turnout organization in the country right now, and organizers on the ground are exuding confidence. And this might be the most heartwarming story I’ve read from the field in this whole election cycle.
I think the state is too close to call, but there are no signs that the campaign has given up there. Forward!
