Having worked in high tech, Kevin Drum is more attuned to the impact of computerization and technological change than most political bloggers. One of his persistent, occasional topics is ever-growing pace of technological change, and the increasing automation of work.
A few days ago, he wrote about this paper by economists Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu documenting the permanent disappearance of routine middle-class jobs—think bank tellers, machinists, secretaries, factory workers—during recessions over the last 30 years. The jobs that remain tend to be non-routine jobs at either end of the economic spectrum (think computer scientists, janitors).
Their conclusion? “The pace of job polarisation was greatly accelerated in this last recession, and the pace of automation and progress in robotics and computing technology is not slowing down either. If the past 30 years is any guide, we should expect future recessions to continue to spur job polarisation. Jobless recoveries may be the new norm.”
This is what economists call a “secular trend”—something that proceeds regardless of other factors in the economy. It’s going to be one of the great challenges, not only for Pres. Obama’s second administration, but for industrialized societies worldwide in the coming decades.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/