It is very interesting to peruse Nate Silver’s post-mortem analysis of the pollsters. The thing that really stands out for me is that, among the most active pollsters, there was only one (Pharos Research Group) that showed a significant skew toward Obama, and that pollster had been flagged as unreliable by Mr. Silver and was not used in his model. The other three pollsters who showed any Democratic skew were basically accurate (RAND Corporation: +1.5%, Quinnipiac +0.3%, and We Ask America +0.1%). By contrast, all other frequent pollsters showed a Republican skew, and the most respected (Gallup) showed the worst skew of all (an astonishing +7.2%). American Research Group (+4.5%) and Rasmussen (+3.7) were also pathetic.
Nate has some observations about polling methodology that you may find interesting, but he doesn’t discuss the subject that interests me. What I want to know is what benefit Romney received from the systemic skew of the polls in his favor. If the polls had been accurate, the race would have been considered uncompetitive all throughout the fall, leading to much lower fundraising and enthusiasm on the Republican side. In short, the polls were bullshit, and they created a bullshit picture. No one wants to admit that at least some of the pollsters were intentionally wrong, but that is obviously the case with Rasmussen, ARG, and Gallup. It also appears to have been the case with Romney’s internal pollsters, at least to the degree that they released information to their donors.
This story line that Romney and his team were shell-shocked is a load of bullcrap. They may have underestimated Obama’s ground game, but not by seven points. They told this lie to keep the money flowing and to keep the media from calling the race early. And I think it enabled them to keep the House.
And I’m pissed.
