I am surprised at how good Ramesh Ponnuru’s advice column for Republicans is considering that I have always seen him as half an idiot. It’s long, but it’s worth a read. A lot goes unmentioned, but that probably makes the column more effective in communicating with its target audience. Distraught Republicans don’t want to be lectured about the wisdom of trying to pass Voter ID laws or impose trans-vaginal probes on unwilling women or referring to Latinos as “illegals” and promising to make them so miserable that they’ll “self-deport.” Mr. Ponnuru doesn’t focus on the myriad ways in which the modern GOP chooses to alienate people. He focuses on what the GOP is offering to people. And the answer comes back: “not much.”
Ponnuru takes the long view, and his retelling of history is surprisingly fair and balanced. His column would be stronger if he used a bit of my historical analysis about the development of the modern conservative movement in an environment of near-total minority status. Ponnuru talks about how the GOP developed a strategy that worked well in national elections but less well in state elections and not well at all in district-level elections. He attributes this to the party’s strength (developed early in the Cold War) on foreign policy and military issues and their weakness in talking to the middle class. I think that is accurate, but it doesn’t explain why the Republicans don’t resonate with middle-class voters.
The answer is that a variety of factors led conservatives to view the Federal Government with hostility. The Democrats controlled the House of Representatives from 1933-1949, 1951-1953, and 1955-1995. They controlled the Senate from 1933-1949, 1951-1953, 1955-1981, and 1987-1995. Or, to put it another way, in the 62 years between the elections of 1932 and 1994, the GOP controlled the House for two two-year terms and the Senate for a total of 10 years.
That is a long period of time to have very little say in how the government spends its money. There were only four years in that 62 year span when the Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress, and Harry Truman was president for two of them. In both cases, the voters immediately handed power back to the Democrats in both chambers.
Under those circumstances, it isn’t any surprise that Republicans grew increasingly unhappy with how the government allocates its resources. Yet, at the outset, the conservatives had enough power within the Democratic Party to keep a check on the government’s power. That changed when the Warren Court began chipping away at the Jim Crow laws and asserting more separation of church and state. When Southern Democrats began to abandon the party they lost their powerful hold on the congressional committees, and that was basically the last straw in turning conservatives against Washington.
The result was the consolidation of conservative sentiment in a Republican Party that was already hostile to spending on the middle class. Country Club Republicans didn’t like taxes and social spending. Southerners didn’t like anything being produced by the Supreme Court or the Feds’ role in enforcing those rulings. Conservative members of Congress were less supportive of spending that they could no longer direct.
All of this combined to create the Reagan Revolution which came in with the motto that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” Yet, Reagan and Poppy Bush never had a unified Republican Congress. When the unified Republican Congress came, in 1995, it had to deal with President Bill Clinton. It didn’t know how to run the government with a Democratic president because it didn’t think the government should be doing most of the things it did. Two government shutdowns followed immediately after the Gingrich Revolution.
Setting aside the impeachment of Bill Clinton during his second term, the congressional Republicans did eventually learn how to pass appropriation bills and keep the government’s doors open. They discovered that it wasn’t feasible or desirable to close down the Department of Education. They began to learn how to legislate, however unwillingly.
When their moment finally came with the (s)election of George W. Bush, their conservative overreach caused the defection of Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont and the loss of control of the Senate. When the September 11 attacks led to strong Republican gains in 2002 and 2004, the Republicans turned Washington over to Jack Abramoff and his gang of thieves. Rather than downsizing government, they launched a looting operation. Regulations and oversight were relaxed. Wall Street went nuts. The economy tanked.
I retell this history because it complements Mr. Ponnuru’s history and helps explain why the modern GOP has nothing to offer the middle class but tax cuts. The Tea Party was inflated with corporate money and media but it had its kernel in something called consistency. The Republicans didn’t spend all that time out of power arguing that what Washington needed was to be looted. They argued that the federal government should do nothing. They argued that it should be starved of funds and reduced in size until it was small enough to be drowned in a bathtub. George W. Bush and Tom DeLay didn’t do that when they had the chance.
It should not startle anyone that a political party that developed as a permanent minority party implacably opposed to the Federal Government would not be very good at running the Federal Government. They don’t have a positive agenda for what the government should do. They often argue that policy should be set at the state and local level, but they aren’t developing any activist government agenda on those levels, either. In any case, when something happens like a hurricane or a recession or college and health care become unaffordable, the modern GOP has no answers. They belong in the minority because they only know how to oppose. They don’t know how to legislate and they don’t want to legislate.
That’s why they have nothing to say to the middle class.
I’m confused, You mention the GOP doing well at the national level but not as well at state level or district level elections. Yet that is part of the whole problem, how successful they have been at those lower level elections, thus giving them control of many states and creating districts which allow them to control the House.
And this has been ongoing for several years. Maybe my reading comprehension isn’t where it shoudl be. Need more coffee. Of I am the other half of the idiot that Ponnuru isn’t.
I wrote about this change recently.
From 1933-1953, the Dems held the White House. However, from 1953-1993, the Republicans controlled the White House 28 years to 12 for the Dems.
It’s that period I am talking about when I say that the modern GOP had a strategy that worked at the national (presidential) level, less so at the state (Senate) level, and not at all at the district (House) level.
However, the opposite is now the case. The GOP has gerrymandered the House so thoroughly that they can probably hold until 2022, barring another meltdown. But they just got killed in statewide elections and they’ve lost the popular presidential vote in 5 of the last 6 elections.
They are in an environment that calls on them to legislate rather than run the government, but they have developed all the beliefs and habits for the opposite situation.
Does that make sense?
I had a thought you were thinking that way. Like I said, I need another cup of coffee. No doubt that the Dems need to pay more attention to the local races, although I will say that in my little section of Illinois, in a purple area, despite major pushes by the Republicans, the Dems won virtually every race on the ticket.
As demographics continue to shift, and Republicans find themselves up against the wall, they’ll be forced to develop new strategies. I look forward to internal GOP debates over effective ways to lure in Latinos and women. Given the five stages of grief, my guess is they begin by continuing to offer nothing and try to dress it up better (and throw in a few token candidates to boot).
When that doesn’t work, they’ll rail some more about “takers” and then come up with another plan and then another and yet another. Inevitably, eventually, they will have to moderate. I’ll be 50 in 2013. It’s my hope that, by the end of my life, perhaps twenty something or thirty something years from now, Republicans will have become similar to the conservative parties of Europe in acceptance of a social contract that takes care of everyone and overall advocates of good (which for them might mean: efficient) government.
It is hard to beat the incumbent in a local district tilted toward the party of the incumbent. The Dems had better start thinking NOW about 2019-2020 – WE NEED TO FOCUS ON THAT CYCLE, and WIN THE REDISTRICTING.
In IL, we added 4 seats. Dems gerrymandered to help dems. In PA, MI, WI, we lost seats – we should OWN those states. But when they win at the local level, we lose nationally.
Can we leverage the gender gap? “Women, tell your husbands and friends whatever you want, but vote Dem”?
I disagree. I think a Democratic Speaker is likely in 2017, assuming the next Dem presidential candidate isn’t a dud or the economy isn’t in shambles again for some reason.
Which party is better at adjusting to new realities and crafting new strategies and methodologies in the face of new facts on the ground? Ours, right?
Just because the Obama campaign never had the resources/inclination to tie congress up into its own election strategies, that doesn’t mean the advances that have arisen in the last 4-6 years can’t be more strongly applied to contesting battleground districts. It often doesn’t take more than a couple thousand votes per swing district to flip hold of the House.
It’s worth a try. According to Sam Wong over at Princeton Election Consortium, the gerrymandering of the House combined with the advantages of incumbency give the Republicans an advantage of somewhere from 2.5 to 5 points. That’s a lot to overcome, particularly in an off-presidential-year election.
Indeed a stark reality.
To me, this election also laid out just how hungry people who wanted to stay in the Rep Party were to hear their Party leaders offer fleshed out specifics of their policies.
By not offering specifics of how the generics of the platform would benefit Americans they left Americans sitting around coffee tables with nothing to chew over except empty calorie opinions, fear and loathing.
Another strand in the rise of “conservatism”, of course, is the funding by large business interests of Repub candidates whose main goal is to roll back accumulated regulations affecting giant corporations—mostly regs involving organized labor, environmental and financial dealings. Dems ultimately got into this corrupt racket as well, with disastrous results for the hapless middle class.
This deregulation was sold as a great economic benefit to the middle class (“The HOLY FREE MARKET saves YOU!”), who were taught via teevee news to hate unions with a passion. Cuz of course everyone KNOWS that plutocrat management really has the workers’ best interests in mind, yessiree. And who gets sick and harmed from the effects of massive corporate pollution of the air, water, and now, climate? The plutocrats or the schmoes in the suburban ramblers?
Anyway, we can never forget that the “conservative” movement happily hitched its wagon to the corporate plutocracy and mostly did (and does) its bidding. One can’t understand today’s “conservatism” absent this crucial component. Repubs are the party of abusive bizness interests and plutocrats. That’s who bought them.
This deregulation was sold as a great economic benefit to the middle class (“The HOLY FREE MARKET saves YOU!”), who were taught via teevee news to hate unions with a passion.
I wonder if Boo watched the local TV news last night. One of the three channels was getting their union hate on last night. They lambasted city workers because the workers dare protest in front of Mayor Nutter’s house. “How dare they inconvenience Nutter’s neighbors!! .. those uppity city workers!!” Who haven’t had a contract in almost 5 years, by the way.
What you fail to mention is the the Republican Party is the party that seeks corporate anarchy. Freedom of private corporation action with no government except to enforce what they want enforced. i.e. a hired security force
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtMV44yoXZ0
Rick Perlstein: The Long Con
http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con/print
For the umpteenth time, Viagra and the like are not covered at all under many employer group health plans, nor has the administration imposed any requirement that EGHPs cover them.
In contrast to the requirement that female contraception be covered.
Is there a Democratic war on men?
Just old men, maybe?
Contraception works in the public interest because it eliminates the huge costs associated with human birth, both financial and otherwise, and the continuing needs of the new person, if the mother lacks such resources, until such a time as the new person gets a job, and switches from taker to maker.
Viagara has the opposite effect: the more rolling over in the clover, the more births. And it’s probably not very likely that these guys suddenly empowered with the four-hour itch that can’t be scratched, after years of wishful thinking, will be giving a whole lot of thought to consequences.
It’s not about the government paying for folks to have sex, despite what certain deep thinkers say on the radio.
The Democratic war is on the attitude that freedom grants one a license to be an asshole.
carry within them the seeds of their own destruction. The GOP majority was based on:
My own read is that the Republicans have struggled since the Wall fell in 1989. 9/11 allowed them to rebuild this coalition temporarily, but a key part of the GOP majority died with the Soviet Union. What made 2012 interesting was the utter failure of the GOP to use either of their two other issues (taxation, social issues) to cast Democrats as out of touch with the middle class. Part of the source of this failure rests with the control Wall Street has over the agenda of the GOP. The GOP truly believes tax cuts for the rich are really what matter, since they think the rich create jobs. (I actually think smart people create jobs, but that is another issue).
While the racial reaction against Obama did help them, this was nowhere large enough to overcome the increasing perception of the GOP as tha party of the rich.
The extent of the Democratic Majority should not be overestimated. The bottom line is that Obama only ran against the Bush Tax cuts for the rich. He did not argue for their complete repeal. As long as Democrats are limited to tax increases on the rich, their agenda will be limited.
All this shit is pretend reckoning. As if by a few hacks and flacks “having a conversation” at the very beginning of an election period, they get to pretend to have changed. This at a time when senior senators in the GOP are pursuing personal vendettas against the president and people in his organization, when the Speaker has made it clear that they have no flexibility on the president’s core requests, when the former nominee is returning to disavowed 47%ism in his blessedly returned private life. This at a time when journalists from right wing media pretend to instruct the president, in the context of a press conference, to publicly address the families of foreign service staff killed in action. Nothing has changed on the right. There is little objective reason to think anything will, until the republican party stops being about opposing the president in all things and starts being about getting shit done for all of us.
Serious question: has the GOP ever recovered from winning the Civil War?
The Railroad Barons and the corruption that blew up during Andrew Johnson, stained Grant’s presidency and made the next presidencies failures at reform. The “Ma, Ma, where’s my Pa?” campaign against Grover Cleveland. The first media president, William McKinley (with his proto-Karl-Rove, Mark Hanna), who also launched US imperial expansion with the Spanish-American War. Warren Harding and the free-for-all presidency. Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression. Theodore Roosevelt and Dwight D. Eisenhower would seem to buck the trend, but both were more outsiders to the party. So I wonder: even if for decades it had lots of well-meaning people (for example, opponents of Jim Crow at its inception), has the Republican Party ever been NOT dominated by plutocrats after Lincoln?
Not that I can tell. It’s stunning how quickly the GOP went from its formation to completely selling out.