Lemme see…
A timeline. (Look it up yourselves.)
1-Breathless cries of relief as “Egypt” brokers a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
2-Hillary Clinton flies to Israel to stop the new/old war from escalating.
3-Said ceasefire disintegrates.
4-Hillary gets busy. Busy doing what? That’s a secret, right? But follow the results to know what’s up. Follow the money, too, if you can find it. It’s there in some form. Bribes, military equipment…something. Bet on it.
5-The ceasefire magically reappears, again “brokered by Egypt.”
And of course, today…
6-Morsi takes draconian steps to consolidate his power in Egypt.
Hmmmm…
Morsi Asserts New Powers and Orders Ex-Officials Retried
Egypt’’s president on Thursday issued constitutional amendments that placed him above judicial oversight and ordered the retrial of Hosni Mubarak for the killing of protesters in last year’s uprising.
Mohammed Morsi also decreed immunity for the Islamist-dominated panel drafting a new constitution from any possible court decisions to dissolve it, a threat that had been hanging over the controversial assembly.
Liberal and Christian members withdrew from the assembly during the past week to protest what they say is the hijacking of the process by Morsi’s allies, who they saw are trying to push through a document that will have an Islamist slant marginalizing women and minority Christians and infringing on personal liberties. Several courts have been looking into cases demanding the dissolution of the panel.
The Egyptian leader also decreed that all decisions he has made since taking office in June and until a new constitution is adopted and a new parliament is elected — which is not expected before next spring — are not subject to appeal in court or by any other authority. He also barred any court from dissolving the Islamist-led upper house of parliament, a largely toothless body that has also faced court cases.
The moves effectively remove any oversight on Morsi, the longtime Muslim Brotherhood figure who became Egypt’s first freely elected president last summer after the Feb. 11, 2011 fall of autocrat Hosni Mubarak. They come as Morsi is riding high on lavish praise from President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton for mediating an end to eight days of fighting between Israel and Gaza’s Hamas rulers.
Morsi not only holds executive power, he also has legislative authority after a previous court ruling just before he took office on June 30 dissolved the powerful lower house of parliament, which was led by the Brotherhood. With two branches of power in his hands, Morsi has had repeated frictions with the third, the judiciary, over recent months.
Hmmmm…
The king is dead!!!
Mubarak is as good as dead, one way or another. And so is his entourage.
Long live the king!!!
Morsi, of course.
Read on.
Do you believe in coincidences?
I don’t. Not on this scale I don’t.
They say that everything is negotiable. (Until the last thing, of course.) This is a negotiation between and among a number of fabulously wealthy and powerful entities, the U.S. being the most powerful by far. Hosni Mubarak…and by extension, his entire political, financial and bureaucratic apparatus plus most of the Egyptian military…was entirely in the pocket of the U.S. PermaGov. Bought and sold, hundreds of times (and trillions of dollars) over. 20 years’ worth. Then the Arab Spring began, way out of U.S. control. What to do, what to do? Sit back and wait for the scene to shake out…with as much U.S. influence as power, money and murder can buy, of course.
Once it shakes out? Wait for the opportune moment to buy back into the new game.
Morsi?
He knows the game, too.
What he got in return?
Beyond telling, except by what appears in the news.
My bet?
Among other concessions…we’ll see them in the future if we look really hard…he got the right to eliminate the now-useless-to-the-U.S. Mubarak group as thoroughly as he could possibly do so. Whatever protections the U.S. was still holding regarding that group were lifted.
Buh-bye Mubarak, hello the NuBarak.
Mohamed Morsi Isa El-Ayyat.
He plays the game very well, apparently. But no matter how well he plays it the U.S. is in the catbird seat in terms of power. Financial and military power. Bet on that as well. What are his real intentions and what cards does he hold? A good poker player is hard to read. We shall see soon enough. He certainly means to survive if nothing else, and also to remain in power. After that?
We shall see, sooner or later. The U.S. has some good poker players too. Plus it owns many of the dealers.
Let us pray.
Later…
AG
“One never knows, do one?”-Fats Waller
Go here to hear Fats singing “The Sheik Of Araby.” (Can’t embed it here. Sorry.)
Hmmmm…
Later…
AG
P.S. Happy Thanksgiving, you turkeys.
And…WTFU.
Please.
You’re right on! The new show is the same as the old one and in the meantime hardly anyone has even missed so much as a beat—they’re all heart, right?
I hear people are burning his party’s offices in protest.
Terrorists?
Or is it about some other movie? You know…the one where Morsi is as successful as was Mubarak.
Call in Petraeus and his girlfriend. Sumbody gotta know something right?
All jokes aside…how serious is the “burning?” As massive as Tahrir Square? Doubtful. Small enough to be handled efficiently? Betcha.
Watch.
AG
Moslem Brotherhood offices in multiple cities. Call John McCain…it’s not likely a spontaneous reaction to Morsi’s decrees.
It ain’t over until it’s over, AG.
My reading of the tea leaves is that Erdogan and Morsi (or their representatives) got together at the Arab League meeting and sketched out a deal that Hamas in Gaza could accept (Hamas is close to the MB). And then they rang up Ms. Hillary and asked what it would take for the US to get Israel on board with this deal.
Meanwhile in Israel, the IDF brass had told Netanyahu that the ground offensive against 3 million or so people in Gaza was a no-go with only 75,000 troops (remembering their last experience with Hezbollah four years ago). So Bibi was looking for an out, and the offer of additional subsidies for his Iron Dome anti-missile system was worth taking a chance on a ceasefire. He could look strong by whacking the hornets nest and he could look like a peacemaker by agreeing to a ceasefire that he could find an excuse to break.
Meanwhile back in Egypt, Morsi calculates that he can get away with destroying the last remnants of the Mubarak regime (in the courts) through issuing a decree, thus solidifying MB rule (they are the majority writing the constitution). But the same folks who came out to Tahrir two years ago disagree with his seizure of power. A little backpedaling is likely for his overreach. It is not clear that he has solidified his command of the armed forces after the ouster of Tantawi.
Because the Mubarak holdovers are a good part of the business class and there are still military who own substantial corporate ventures, Morsi is not going to have a free hand even if Hillary tries her best April Glaspie imitation.
Unfortunately, Americans are so vain they think that every news story is about them.
Could be. But every news story in that region is about the U.S., at least in part.
You write:
Yup.
And to whom do the military and the majority of the Egyptian money people owe their position and power?
The U.S.
Nothing happens in the region that does not have a U.S. component. That’s not vanity, it’s simple economics and military power vectors. Can the U.S. still pull the strings the way that it did in the days of the Shah of Iran or Mubarak? No. But it still has a lot of strings.
Bet on it.
AG
It’s an interesting thing about dependent people, like the Egyptian military relative to US aid and the business community–they resent the hell out of their dependent status. And only snap to when they absolutely have to. Same goes for Bibi Netanyahu. Because in principle the US could dictate ever move doesn’t mean that it does. It helps to save your imperial attitudes for the critical stuff and not be a jerk about it — something that escapes some US leaders, George W. Bush for example.
Those marionette strings tend to be held loosely these days. I think the press calls it “leading from behind”.
Tis is “the critical stuff,” Tarheel. The big news from Hurricane Sandy…the news that lasted much longer than the cleanup, the restoration of services and the human suffering/property damage…was this:
People got testy when they couldn’t get their gasoline fix. Luckily, fuel oil deliveries were not seriously affected because he weather has not been particularly cold in the area that was hit. Food deliveries were also not much affected either, because the oil delivery infrastructure was not damaged in about 95% of the rest of the country.
But if the Middle East really goes to hell? If Syria becomes the norm? If a war is being fought in Israel? If israel strikes Iran? If Egypt goes ballistic? If the whole carefully constructed and maintained balance of powers in the region is disrupted…a balance of powers that has allowed the U.S. to become a nation almost totally dependent on automobiles and trucks for its day-to-day survival…and gas prices in the U.S. begin to spiral up to the levels that are prevalent in Europe?
Oh man!!! The chaos that would ensue here would be monumental. Food would not be delivered to the inner cities. Winter in the north without fuel oil? Generators down across the country? Please. The game would be up by February. The troops would come home, alright. They’d come home to maintain order here.
Baghdad West, all across the country. Bet on it.
This tap dance that is going on behind closed doors now in the Middle East? The concessions and various sorts of payoffs that are without any doubt being sought and granted there? Please. It’s really not about “marionette strings” anymore, TD. Pinocchio’s loose, and he’s raising holy hell.
Yes he is.
Lots of Pinocchios.
Watch.
AG
Relax. They’ll be drilling in every national park and condemning land like crazy for tar sands pipelines if Middle Eastern oil is interrupted. The folks who have to worry are China and India and Japan. And that creates a whole other realm for you to worry about.
Pinocchio is beginning to be a real live boy. Many Pinocchios. It’s not holy hell yet. Label it that when Lebanon becomes unstable, Turkey has a massive Kurdish uprising, Iraq descends into sectarian warfare, Abdullah is overthrown in Jordan, Egypt and Libya descend into civil war, a Libyan-Syrian type of revolution comes to Algeria, and Mohammed is replaced by a Sharia state. And that doesn’t even consider Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and Iran. Even then, Russia still pumps oil. Norway and UK pump oil. Venezuela regains relevancy.
.
Defining Egypt in its new constitution – A secular or Islamic state.
“The main debate in Egypt still pivots around the shaky relationship between religion and politics, expressed by the insistence of Salafi parties that the basis of legislation in Egypt be the “provisions” of Shari’a law, rather than the “principles.” The debate extends to include the nature of the state and its civility. While some call for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate, others want the foundation of a radical secular system.”
Warning signs by blogger Sandmonkey and Haaretz on Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power.
Whaddayou, kiddin’ me or what?
Here’s what I saw 4 years ago in Egypt. It’s only increased in intensity since then.
Please.
Egypt is…and will remain…an Islamic state in the best traditiion of so-called “democratic” rule. The majority of Egyptians are Muslims. They favor the Muslim Brotherhood.
End of story.
Nothing new here.
The question remains…what’s next?
We shall see, soon enough.
We shall soon see.
Watch.
AG