Politically, I think the biggest stories of the 2012 elections were that the Republicans have a real problem on the national level and that the Democrats have a real problem on the district level. Demographic change has put the White House almost out of theoretical reach for the GOP, but so has a combination of gerrymandering and cultural polarization put the House of Representative out of the Democrats’ reach. Consider that the Democrats received more than a half million more votes than the Republicans in House races and yet did not even come close to winning control of the chamber.
However, the complete and total radicalization of the Republican Party and the media’s inability to deal with it are also big stories from this election. Mitt Romney and his campaign were phony and dishonest from beginning to end, in big things and small. From their principles to their logic to their policies to their talking points to their allegations, none of it was even minimally true. Yes, it was unprecedented.
one of the little things (or maybe not so little) to come out of the election is the tax transparency issue that romney tried to dispense with. his loss means that politicians following him will probably reconsider stiff-arming calls for releasing their tax history. but romney’s attempt nonetheless probably means from now on getting less than twenty years of records from republicans and other folks with stuff they prefer to hide.
I think the jury’s out on this one. It depends how it’s remembered. I was surprised at how quickly the media backed off. However, the refusal to release records played into a larger narrative that Obama successfully painted of a self-serving plutocrat with all kinds of secrets. The ad with the sound of the flapping Swiss flag and tropical Cayman Island beaches was brilliant.
The fourth biggest story is Andrew Cuomo throwing away his chances for the presidency by engineering a move that places the state senate in the hands of the GOP.
Yes, that is a big story. But WHAT THE FUCK is the back story here? What is Cuomo’s motivation for this? It’s all bad, nothing good, unless he is a RIABN (republican in all but name), which I begin to think more and more is the case.
asking the same question – ???? and absolutely looks like he’s throwing away his chances, which I thought was his life goal for a while now. very strange
Honestly, I think Cuomo is more like Obama than Lieberman and I mean that in a good way. He’s calculating what’s most likely to get his agenda passed and, in New York, which is a very goofy place (trust me, I grew up there), keeping Republicans in control of the legislature is more likely to allow Cuomo to pass a progressive slate of bills. The guy doesn’t care much about labels. The real test will be what he gets done.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m not a Cuomo fan. I don’t trust the guy. But I’m willing to keep an open mind and see what he manages to accomplish.
yes, that’s what he? someone? said, he’s breaking the deadlock in the state assembly. I guess if it works he’s in good shape
It seems to be race-based (or power base-based) in that the Democratic Caucus is run by Blacks and Hispanics…
We will see over the next 2-3 elections how out-of-reach the House really is. Those demographic changes are ongoing, even in the suburbs, and we’re about to see the Democratic President become a whole lot more popular as the economy improves, the benefits of Obamacare kick in, and the Republican Congress continues to disgrace itself.
I completely agree. the cultural and racial changes occurring in this country are accelerating rapidly, driven both by the mainstream media and by the internet. The white “stupids”…the brain-dead that mostly populate the Republican base…are being relegated to the peripheries of the culture. This movement has been in progress since the beginnings of the Civil Rights era, and by now almost the entire media/internet system portrays them in a highly negative manner. That’s how many generations that have come up under this media barrage? Going on three or four. The next three House elections are going to tell the tale. Watch.
AG
Well, Boo figured it would take a seven point swing for the Dems to take the House. That’s really big. Demographics are about half a point a year so we’re looking at 14 years = 2026 for that to suffice. Even with some acceleration the 2020 redistricting is likely to come first. Taking the House before 2022 would require some other shift against the Republicans (like public hatred over a debt limit fight or some such).
We cannot wait for 2022. We must do it in 2018, because the next redistricting cycle is at 2020. We have to focus on this cycle. I understand the incremental notion, and that change is slow. We need to find leverage points.
I think it’s more of a five point swing. That can be achieved in part, but not in whole, through demographics. We’ve also got to have the better arguments, the better outreach, the better turnout operation.
isn’t there already a promising WV seat opening up that was not on Booman’s list of possible pickups due to Shelley Capito running for senate?
http://dev.akronnewsnow.com/news/politics/item/62305-west-virginia-emerges-as-first-2014-senate-race
-to-watch
Sam Wang agrees: gerrymandering has an impact of up to 5%.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/09/the-new-house-with-less-democracy/
Well, Boo figured it would take a seven point swing for the Dems to take the House. That’s really big. Demographics are about half a point a year so we’re looking at 14 years = 2026 for that to suffice
This assumes that the change in the electorate is even across districts. What is much more likely to happen is that the districts which will see the biggest demographic change will be suburban districts near diverse urban centers. These also happen to be what the Republicans created a lot of with redistricting – districts that have a small urban component attached to a larger suburban area.
Consider that the Democrats received more than a half million more votes than the Republicans in House races and yet did not even come close to winning control of the chamber.
Last I heard, it’s actually over a million now.
This might just be the biggest story. From Glenn Smith at Firedoglake:
A kickback scheme from the second largest cancer research fund in the US. Lots of the GOP establishment involved.
wow!!
and he was running for prez? how Edwardsian! I guess the hair is the giveaway
Bipartisan goo-goo reform. Non-partisan re-districting ballot measures, etc.
The Democratic Party needs to clean house. No, I’m not talking about an ideological purge. I’m talking about fighting graft and corruption and political dynasties. I’ve talked with people here in Illinois who have voted D all their lives that have had a belly full of politicians being indicted for graft and bribery, of soi-disant Democrats doubling the flat income tax and then giving special tax breaks to corporate donors, of the appointment of relatives and cronies as “special assistants” and “consultants” at high salaries while teachers and nurses and state cops are layed off or put on furlough. The latest brain storm from our Democratic Governor to solve the pension crisis, caused by decades of the funds being “borrowed” and outright underfunding by the State is to push the pension costs on the local school districts, e.g. the regressive property tax. This has him so unpopular that a primary challenge seems assured, but who is mentioned? Just the same old political families, Daley, Madigan, Cullerton, Simon, Stevenson. I, for one, would like to see someone named Wong or Lopez to run. The situation for black candidates is hopeless, there is not one who has not come out of the corrupt swamp of Chicago’s West and South sides. Maybe someday a middle-class black politician from the suburbs or downstate will make the run, but first the Chicago Machine must be broken. And if we must have a white candidate, can’t we have one who has not grown up in politics? Someone like Foster out of business or technology?
The public is ripe for old fashioned Republican talk about lower taxes and cutting graft and wasteful spending. The haven’t got any traction because they always melt down on abortion, rape, gay rights, and other Christian crap. But if they ever shut up about social issues and return to their old themes from fifty years ago, they will take Illinois just as they have taken Wisconsin and Michigan.
If you’ve not read it yet, read Karen Abbott, Sin in the Second City: Madames, Ministers, Playboys, and the Battle for America’s Soul. It is underneath it all a history of one of the very interesting threads in the history of the 1900s progressive movement, a thread that passes through Chicago. And the reformist movement there.
Thanks! I’ve just added it to the order I’m building at Amazon. And they’ve reduced the price (hardcover) to $10.38
What is going to destroy the Democratic Party in Illinois is the pension system and pension abuse. When I read what Daley that piece of rancid donkey shit did to double his pension, my blood absolutely boils. And those fuckers in Springfield do not seem to understand that Wisconsin and Michigan are A WHOLE FUCK CLOSER than they realize.
Rahm’s public/private partnership boondoggles in the midst of shutting down schools and health clinics is killing the Democratic Party in Chicago.
And now we have Durbin delivering the death blow to Medicare.