Benjy Sarlin has a very interesting piece up at Talking Points Memo about how unions evolved from seeing undocumented workers as scabs during the era of Cesar Chavez to seeing them, in more recent years, as an exploited workforce deserving of representation and protection. Part of the article is about the prospects that Congress will be able to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill, and that is what I want to talk about. As the article (and people cited in the article) points out, there is a new optimism in the aftermath of the 2012 election, primarily because it is so clear that Latinos made a decisive difference in the outcome:
While victory in 2013 is far from certain, labor leaders believe conditions have improved significantly since their disappointing 2007 effort.
For one thing, Republicans acknowledge they’re on defense this time around in a way that was not true during past reform efforts. It was easier for GOP lawmakers to minimize the role of Latino voters in their 2006 midterm losses, which most blamed on Iraq, and their role in Obama’s 2008 blowout, which many dismissed as Bush fatigue. But the 2012 results, in which Obama racked up record margins and turnout among Latinos around the country despite a sagging economy and mediocre approval ratings, are much harder to ignore.
“I think many of the politicians were saying, ‘You know, we keep hearing about this Latino giant and it’s sort of a myth,’” Medina said. “But the reality finally hit home on November 6.”
The article also points out that agricultural interests have been stung by recent anti-immigrant laws in states like Alabama that have scared away temporary farm workers. Those interests are likely to apply significantly more pressure on the GOP this time around.
Does all this augur well for a successful push on a comprehensive bill? Perhaps. But I wonder about something else that is different this time around.
Last time, the president was a Republican and his point man in Congress was Sen. John McCain. They were unsuccessful, but I imagine there was a high level of desire within the Republican caucus to help the president. There is no such desire this time.
In thinking about the changed dynamics, I couldn’t help but contemplate the meaning of another article published today. This one is in Politico, and it is about the likelihood that we will see a government shutdown before the year is out. Here’s a key nugget from the article:
House Speaker John Boehner “may need a shutdown just to get it out of their system,” said a top GOP leadership adviser. “We might need to do that for member-management purposes — so they have an endgame and can show their constituents they’re fighting.”
I’m trying to imagine Speaker Boehner making the decision that he must shut down the government for member-management purposes. And then I am trying to imagine those same members deciding that they need to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill in order to retain the Republican Party’s viability as a national party that can win the White House.
I guess what I am saying is that I distrust all political analysis that relies on the Republicans (particularly the House Republicans) acting sanely in their own political self-interest. I am reminded again of those holographic cards that show you a different image when you shift them. Sometimes I look at the Republicans and think that they are nihilists who don’t believe in anything, including objective reality. Other times, I look at them and see them as total zealots who are driven mad by ideology. And I wind up wondering how both things could be simultaneously true.
In any case, I am all for a full-bore push to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill, but I can’t say that I am optimistic about our chances. We are dealing with people who are much more concerned about the browning of America than they are about their own political futures. They will convince themselves that Latinos vote for Democrats anyway and that a better route to self-preservation is to screw around with the Electoral College in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where they have the power to do it and where it would confer them a clear advantage.
I don’t see it either. Given the large numbers of racists in the Republican primary voter pool, the majority of House Republicans will be against any meaningful reform, so due to the Hastert rule, no bill via normal channels. I don’t see Ag interests exerting the kind of pressure that could get 18 House Republicans to sign on to a Democratic discharge petition (and we’d probably need more as Pelosi is not going to get unanimity on immigration reform). It’s not even clear we could get a discharge petition on the debt ceiling through and the Ag industry is nothing compared to the war and banking industries who are going to push for debt ceiling increases.
The Senate might be more receptive, so if we had the 111th Congress’ House, we’d probably get a bill. But the Senate isn’t the roadblock this time.
I think you are right. Consider this from the Politico article:
The nihilists are way less scary than the zealots, at least in the short run. Since the former are in charge, I’m guessing we’ll see a second exception to the Hastert Rule. As you spoke of recently, this is the new governing coalition — Democrats plus around 80 (plus or minus 5) pragmatic Republicans.
I don’t see it happening, but I think it will become clear that the GOP means folks ill. I think the vote needs to be brought in order to get all those GOP votes – ON THE RECORD – and then hang them with it.
I think we all understand that the goal of an authoritarian xenophobic nationalist party, a quasi-fascist party, is to do everything in its power to stand in the way of social and cultural advance, to do everything possible to maintain the Old (white) Order, maintain the power of the old classes and tribes. The more rightwing movements hate and fear the future, the more they must be its implacable enemy.
On something like immigration reform, the question is whether this incipient splintering of the reactionary right GOP is real or merely apparent. The CEOs and plutocrats do not have solid control over the irrational party they bought and created. The upcoming debt ceiling debacle will give us more clues about the power of Wall Street and its plutocrats to advance the GOP split and to order the Drunken Boner around, despite what his unwashed conserva-crazies say.
As for the senate, as a body Mitch’s Morons seem somewhat less insane and more concerned about preserving appearances that the nation isn’t in complete collapse and abject paralysis. To the extent that corporate interests and party Wisemen like KKKarl Rover think it makes political sense, they will be willing to deal on immigration.
But it’s hard to see anything less than insane ever passing Boner’s House of Lunatics, especially involving hated Latinos. Ultimately, our rightwing nationalist party will see much greater opportunity in rigging the electoral college in those Blue States that were retarded enough to give “conservatives” complete control over their state gub’mint.
Rigging the electoral game to favor your anti-democratic party and to hamstring the democratic opposition is another feature of nationalist authoritarian parties when they participate in democratic regimes while they seek to overthrow them. Rigging the election system is usually essential to the ultimate electoral success of a fascist party, so it is a certainty that the Repubs will move to rig the electoral college in the next 4 years. That’s “conservatism”.
They passed draconian laws in Arizona and Alabama. In neither place have they fixed those laws. I believe in Alabama they made it worse the second time around. This despite the AG lobby crying holy hell.
They also passed an immigration law in Georgia which chased all the farm workers away and left crops in the field to rot. Some claim caused 2 billion of lost revenue for the farmers and related industries. There is still no long term farm bill passed. Seems there maybe an opening for a blue dog if the GOP continues focus on anti abortion/gay, lets repeal Obamacare and ignore the farmers.
I’ve long thought immigration the perfect issue with which to drive a wedge between the wings of the Republican party. Well before the 2012 election, it would have been easy to propose a bill really cracking down hard and in a serious way on employers who hire illegals. The Teahaddists would have jumped through hoops, and maybe even teamed with Democrats, to pass such a bill. The oligarchs would have $#it themselves.
Lots of groups played a crucial role.
Nobody is saying that makes them all specially entitled to get their own hottest agenda item on a plate.