This is a just an exercise in fantasy. Imagine if America elects a Democrat as president in 2016 and then reelects them in 2020. Given the strength of the potential Democratic field of candidates and the weakness of the Republicans’ potential field, I do not consider this an outlandish fantasy. It would create a 16-year uninterrupted period of Democratic control of the White House. The only comparable period of sustained one-party domination of the executive branch occurred between 1933 and 1953, as FDR and Truman won five straight elections. We know that that period totally transformed America, almost entirely for the better. We also know that the conservative opposition to the early New Deal largely exhausted itself during that period and finally turned to Dwight Eisenhower and moderation in order to win back power.
This may be what we will be facing. In this scenario, it is 1937, which was not a good year for Roosevelt. In any case, since we’re fantasizing here, let’s imagine that it is January 20th, 2023, the midpoint of our hypothetical president’s second term. How old would the current members of the Supreme Court be?
Chief Justice John Roberts would be 66, but a week away from his 67th birthday.
Antonin Scalia would be 86.
Anthony Kennedy would be 86.
Clarence Thomas would be 74.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be 89.
Stephen Breyer would be 84.
Samuel Alito would be 72.
Sonia Sotomayor would be 68.
Elena Kagan would be 62.
Update [2013-1-28 21:38:23 by BooMan]: I had the year wrong. Midpoint of second term would be in January 2023, not 2022. Numbers updated to reflect that.
Obviously, there is no guarantee that any of them would have retired by then. John Paul Stevens recently retired at the age of ninety. Justices Roberts, Thomas, and Alito will still be relatively young. Still, there is a good chance that the four Justices who would be in their mid-to-late eighties would have been replaced by 2023.
On the other hand, if Clarence Thomas serves until he is 90, we will leave the Court in 2038. Christ, I hope that doesn’t happen.
So, feel free to speculate. How would this country be transformed after a 16-year run of Democratic control of the White House?
