National Journal has ranked all the members of Congress on a conservative-to-liberal scale. They aren’t releasing their full results until tomorrow, but they have presented, as a teaser, a list of the 15 most conservative senators in the second session of the 112th Congress (2011-2012). Surprisingly, Idaho Senator Jim Risch tops their list (you can see their methodology here). But what’s also interesting is how non-enduring this group seems to be.
Jim DeMint of South Carolina (3rd most conservative) and Jon Kyl of Arizona (tied for 15th) have already retired, while Saxby Chambliss of Georgia (11th) recently announced his retirement at the end of this Congress. Then there is a group of freshmen who seem very vulnerable. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (4th) is totally out of step with his home state, and I think you can say much the same about Ron Johnson of Wisconsin (5th). Will either of these blue-staters be able to survive in 2016, a presidential election year? Rand Paul of Kentucky (6th) might actually benefit from 2016 being an election year, but he will probably be distracted by his own presidential campaign. He’s a divisive figure even in his own party, and his reelection is no certainty.
Then we get to the older generation. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (tied for 15th) will face the electorate in 2014, as the least popular senator in the country. By election day, he will have served nearly 30 years in the upper chamber. Even if he wins, it will almost definitely be his last term.
Aaron Blake reported in the Washington Post yesterday that Mike Enzi of Wyoming (8th) and Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma (14th) are among the most likely senators to retire rather than seek reelection. Don’t celebrate Enzi’s departure, however, because his likely replacement is Liz Cheney (God help us).
Mr. Blake might have added Orrin Hatch of Utah (10th) and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma (12th) to the list. Senator Hatch is about to turn 79 and he will be 84 by the time he has to face the voters again. He entered the Senate in 1977. He is, in fact, the only surprise on this list. His colleague Bob Bennett was defeated in a Republican convention (not a primary) and it evidently scared Hatch enough about a challenge to his own reelection last year that he turned himself into the Second Coming of Attila the Hun.
Meanwhile, Senator Coburn recently said that he has an attitude problem and that he no longer even wants to go to work. He’s in his second term after having promised to only serve one, and in 2010 he told Fox News Sunday that “no way, no how” would he seek reelection in 2016.
Mike Crapo of Idaho (9th) and David Vitter of Louisiana (13th) have both endured serious scandals. Sen. Vitter, we learned, likes to dress up in diapers when he visits prostitutes. Somehow, he survived that. Maybe he will be around for a while, but some sources say that he will “definitely” run for governor in 2015. Considering that he and the outgoing governor (who will probably be running for president) can barely stand each other, things should get interesting in the Bayou State.
Senator Crapo was recently disgraced by a DWI arrest, made more significant because Crapo is a leader in the Mormon Church. He may be challenged or simply go away quietly.
Number two on this list is John Cornyn of Texas. He just turned 61 and he probably will be in the Senate until the demographics of his state overwhelm him in the latter part of the next decade.
From the list, that leaves only Mike Lee of Utah (7th, and also a Mormon) as someone who will almost definitely be annoying us in the Senate for years to come. He’s in his first term; he’s only 41 years old, and he comes from a state that probably won’t consider electing a Democrat any time soon.
When these folks leave office, their replacements may be even worse, but let’s try to hold out hope that we’ll make some progress.
