Bloomberg reports that grassroots organizers have moved into Texas with significant resources and the intention of turning Texas into a battleground state by 2020. I have looked at the numbers in the past and my recollection is that I determined Texas would be purple by 2024 and blue by 2028. So, this project isn’t all that ambitious. It merely seeks to move things up one presidential cycle. I think that is eminently doable. I also think that a particularly wobbly cycle for the Republicans could move things up an additional four years. The projections above are based on whites, blacks, and Latinos voting in stable proportions. If, however, whites and/or Latinos turn against the GOP in greater numbers, the process will accelerate. With the right kind of commitment, and a particularly bad matchup for the Republicans, it is not inconceivable to me that the GOP will find itself unable to take Texas for granted in 2016. It would take a perfect storm, including massive Latino voter registration and a significant erosion of the GOP’s share of the white vote, but it isn’t unthinkable. It’s worth trying, too, because the sooner the GOP comes to reckoning on the status of conservatism in this country, the sooner we start moving in the right direction as a country.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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The quicker the better. We’re still moving in teh wrong direction.
“.. it would take a perfect storm…”
Interesting metaphor, considering that Texas will almost inevitably be punished by Mother Nature for the bevy of climate deniers and oil industry fucktards that live there. It will be harder for them to keep their heads in the sand when the beach is underwater.
In an interview with PBS at the convention, Julian Castro said he thought Texas could turn blue by 2016. He wasn’t more specific than that but I have the feeling he might have been thinking of the Gov’s office and not the Prez. delegate count.
Nevertheless, its seems that finally the shift is beginning to ripen.
What a great candidate he would be.
Voter registration could be automatic…
It seems to me that getting some of that info out would help push back on some of the support for voter suppression
Will it matter if “blue” = neoliberal and warmongering Democrats in charge?
Just my opinion but, yes. “Better” is better than “bad”. Just because “better” isn’t as good as “best” doesn’t mean it’s not worth having (and working for).
Agreed. “Bad” Dems are better than “Good” Republicans.
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good (or if not the good, the better).
Why do you think this country didn’t institute universal health care back when the cost would have been less than 8% of GDP? In the 1930’s when Frances Perkins pushed for it or the late 1940’s when Truman tried again to do it. Lots of Bad Democrats. Now US healthcare sucks up 18% of GDP which will rise as ACA kicks. And which political party do you think will benefit when the ACA price tag becomes known?
Truman lost national healthcare because of JIM CROW.
period.
That’s short-sighted. Voters and Democrats in Congress rejected GHWB’s demand for NAFTA and capital gains tax reduction. Bad policies that a bad Democratic POTUS supported. And what did socially liberal Democrats get for caving on that? DADT and DOMA. Such a deal.