Pew Research conducted a poll on how people feel about the failure of the Senate to pass legislation that included background checks on gun purchases. They then broke the results down by party and by how each state’s senators voted. Respondents were not asked specifically about the Manchin-Toomey amendment that would have closed loopholes on background checks at gun shows and for online sales. What Pew discovered in that the people’s sentiments track closely with how their senators voted. About 50% of the people in states where both senators supported the background check amendment are angry or disappointed that gun legislation didn’t pass, and about 50% of the people in states where both senators voted against the amendment are happy or relieved that gun legislation didn’t pass. But, here’s another way of looking at it:
Electoral votes of states where both senators voted for the Toomey-Manchin background check amendment: 261
Electoral votes of states where one senator voted for and one senator voted against the amendment: 134
Electoral votes of states where both senators voted against the amendment: 140
For the purposes of this analysis, Harry Reid’s vote is considered an ‘aye’ because he only changed it to a ‘no’ for procedural reasons. That means Nevada is categorized as a state where the senators split their votes. The District of Columbia didn’t have a vote, so their 3 Electoral Votes are not counted.
Without DC, there are 535 Electoral Votes. A majority, then, would be 268. So, the 261 votes represented by states where both senators supported the amendment is almost enough to constitute majority just by themselves. Add up the Electoral Votes of states where at least one senator supported the amendment and compare it to the states where at least one senator opposed it, and you get a 395-278 tally. The 395 number is just slightly higher than 59% of the total Electoral Votes represented in this sample. Still short of that magical 60 needed to do anything in the Senate.
