About 534,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts today, and about 185,000 people voted in the Republican primary. Back in 2010, Martha Coakley (Dem) and Scott Brown (Rep) won special election primaries with the following turnout numbers: Democrats 664,195, Republicans 162,706. Scott Brown went on to beat Martha Coakley by almost five points, winning 1,168,178 votes.
What those numbers tell us is that we can’t be complacent about retaining this seat even though Massachusetts has many more Democrats than Republicans. Tonight’s Democratic victor, Rep. Ed Markey, received many fewer votes than Martha Coakley did three years ago, and the Republicans turned out in higher numbers this time around.
It’s true that Martha Coakley ran a terrible campaign. It’s also true that the January 2010 election was held during peak Tea Party season in the midst of some of the worst economic conditions of the Great Recession. Early signs are that the Republican victor tonight, Gabriel Gomez, is probably not as ready for primetime as Scott Brown was at this point in his campaign. But the numbers don’t lie. The Republicans had better turnout tonight and the Democrats had worse turnout tonight than they did three years ago.
I still feel good about Ed Markey’s chances but one additional concern is his election history. Since he first won the Democratic primary in 1976 with 22% of the vote, he has rarely been seriously challenged. In 1984, he had a primary scare in which he won with only 54% of the vote. Eight times he has run for reelection unopposed, and the only time he even has had to break a sweat in a general election came 21 years ago when he won 62% in a three-way race. The truth is that tonight’s 58%-42% shellacking of Rep. Stephen Lynch is the closest election that Markey has had in twenty-nine years.
Meanwhile, a month ago, Gabriel Gomez was being criticized for a lackluster debate performance and was considered an also-ran in the race.
So, let no one assume that John Kerry’s seat is safely in our hands. Tomorrow it will be time to get to work.
What sayeth Joe from Lowell? Are Mass. Dems taking this one seriously?
It is nearly graduation season at the region’s many places of higher end. Wonder if that may have had some effect on turnout, particularly among Dems.
My Mass Dem friends are taking this very seriously. I am going to start spending some weekends with a few of my friends there so I can help with phone calls and canvassing.
The problem is that Gomez has an easy argument to make. Washington is broken. If you want to fix Washington, you don’t do it with someone who has been in Congress for 40 years. Markey can counter that if you want to fix Washington, you don’t send a Republican to the Senate. But if Gomez stakes out some independent/moderate positions, it will be tough for Markey to make the case stick.
Gomez has (relative) youth, plus the Navy SEAL appeal. I think Markey’s in for a tough race.
Washington is broken because the Republican Party has gone off the rails!
Thanks to all who volunteer, but if Blue Mass rejects their state’s senior, highly respected House rep in favor of sending a neophyte Repub talking seal to the Repub-broken senate, it’s pretty much the end of the line for the good ol’ US of A and its democracy.
If the smart states can’t think and operate sensibly vis a vis qualified candidates, then what can possibly be expected of the rest?