Thomas Erdbrink reports in the New York Times on Iranian presidential candidate Saeed Jalili. Mr. Jalili is a hardliner who is close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been the chief nuclear negotiator for Iran. A veteran who lost a leg in the Iraq-Iran war, he campaigns under the banner of “the resistance.” This a new concept in the West, but it should inform how we view current events not only in Iran, but in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even the Occupied Territories of Palestine. If you want to know why Iraq and Syria are so embroiled in sectarian conflict and why it is so hard to find reason for hope, you need to understand “the resistance.”
“Welcome, living martyr, Jalili,” the audience shouted in unison, most of them too young to have witnessed the bloody conflict themselves but deeply immersed in the national veneration of its veterans. Waving flags belonging to “the resistance” — the military cooperation among Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and some Palestinian groups — the crowd roared the candidate’s election slogan: “No compromise. No submission. Only Jalili.”
Iran is a Shia Islam theocracy with a bit of representative democracy thrown in. In the past, Iran has had some decent elections, but Ayatollah Khamenei and the Council of Guardians have been taking increasing control of the process in recent years. They control who can be on the ballot, and in 2009 they seem to have tampered with the actual counting of the vote. Jalili’s path to election was smoothed recently when former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s chosen successor were disqualified.
Jalili’s supporters see themselves as sectarian brawlers in a regional fight against Sunnis, but they frame themselves as champions of the oppressed. That is why they have the support of the Iranian leadership and clergy.
“The best president,” Mr. Khamenei said on Monday, speaking to students at a military academy, “is the one who powerfully resists the enemy and will turn the Islamic republic into an international example for the oppressed people of the world.”
Khameini is officially neutral, but that’s a charade. Jalili will advance his vision.
On Friday, during the campaign event in Tehran, Mr. Jalili chose to explain his policies by citing the first imam of the Shiites, the martyr Ali.
“All across the region we can hear our battle cry, ‘Ya Ali,’ ” said Mr. Jalili, who wrote a dissertation on the Prophet Muhammad’s foreign policy. “We heard it in Lebanon with the victory of Hezbollah. We hear it in our resistance against the Zionist regime. Time and time again we have proved our strength through this slogan.”
As songs played memorializing the battles in the border town of Shalamcheh during the Iran-Iraq war, men punched their fists in the air and shouted, “The blood in our veins belongs to our leader.”
The goal of Iran and its allies, Mr. Jalili said, is to “uproot capitalism, Zionism and Communism, and promote the discourse of pure Islam in the world.”
They talk about capitalism, Zionism, and Communism, but the actual fighting is taking place in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon. It’s primarily a fight between Sunnis and Shiites, with the Iranian leadership trying to take the moral high ground by framing it as resistance against outside oppressors and anti-Islamic ideologies.
If his supporters harbored worries over what these policies might mean for the Iranian economy, they kept them to themselves. “We are fighting an ideological war — nobody cares about the economy,” said Amir Qoroqchi, 25, a smiling electrical engineering student from the holy city of Qum. “The only thing that matters is resistance.”
Hizbollah is a Lebanese Shiite political party and paramilitary force that was basically built by the Iranians to resist the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. They humiliated Israel in a 2006 war, gaining them widespread support and admiration throughout the Muslim world. But they have just decided to make a total commitment to saving the Assad regime in Syria. This probably spells the beginning of a new civil war in Lebanon, as the Sunnis there will not sit on their hands.
Complicating matters, many if not most of the Sunni fighters in Syria and Iraq are just as infused with sectarian religious fervor and anti-Western ideology as the Iranian-backed soldiers. Many of them identify with the goals of al-Qaeda.
This is the shape of the mess that Sen. John McCain is so eager for our country to jump into. In Iran, this is seen as one big regional battle. Syria is just one part of it. It’s a fight for one version of Islam over another, and a fight against the West.
It is not a fight that we can enter casually, thinking that it will soon be over and we can come home. Two hundred and sixty years elapsed between the time that Martin Luther published his 95 theses and when the U.S. Constitution was ratified. People can fight over religion for a very long time before they get exhausted.
Separation of church and state was such a powerful notion for democracy. Too bad the people are too deluded to get that even in this country.
There is no side that we can back that would advance this country’s interests. Even an attempt to force a truce would just cause all sides to see us as the Christian Crusading Enemy.
It’s hard to watch the human devastation of the civil wars particularly ruthless sectarian wars, but this is a lose-lose situation. Only hubris could justify US intervention. Unfortunately, there is plenty of hubris to go around in Washington and the Republicans definitely do not have a monopoly.
Actually, apparently backing the Saudi-backed Sunni Wahabbists is working for our oil industry. Ask Ruslan Tsarni.
Ah, but do oil industry’s interests and the nation’s interests coincide?
I’d also add the comment that this would be like intervening in a punching slapping fight between your neighbor and his spouse. You want to make it stop, but any attempt will turn them both on you.
Why vilify the Shia religion and thereby the Iranian people? That’s the problem wilh all DC insiders, you can’t get over the defeat of the Shah and the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Khomeiny had an uphill battle to earn the hearts and minds of the Iranians … until the Sunni led regime of Saddam Houssein invaded their territory and the brave Iranian people “resisted” the butcher from Baghdad. A short review of history would place the blame for agression with the Sunni religion. Same for Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, all Al-Qaeda affiliates, terror in the streets of Amsterdam-Paris-Madrid-London, north-African nations and the scourge of AQIM-AQAP-Boko Haram.
Just last night on Dutch television a discussion over the (Dutch) nationals traveling to Syria for Jihad. A spokesperson of salafimedia.nl particpated. Within 15 minutes you heard all the arguments of the Wahhabist-Salafist sects of Sunni religion. The decapacitated body of British soldier Lee Rigby wasn’t outright condemned because it’s the individual right of Sunni muslims te revenge the British murdering of Afghan and Iraqi Muslims. The soldier had Muslim blood on his hands. As far as going into Syria and killing fellow Muslims … that’s not so. The Alawites and Shia are heretics and worse than christians. There is only one true religion … haven’t we heard this so often? One gets a full recital from Koran scriptures why that is so and Jihad is the cleansing of one’s soul to get into paradise.
Dream on BooMan … don’t point your cruise missiles towards Teheran and Damascus. The real culprits of Al Qaeda come from Yemen and Saudi Arabia, to be specific the Wahhabist center in Najd.
I’m not vilifying any sects. I’m pointing out that a broad war has broken out between Sunnis and Shiites. I am recommending that keep this conflict at arm’s distance and not attempt to do the warfighting, even on a limited basis.
The problem is, as Oui pointed out, we chose sides in 1980. That’s why Rummy was hanging out with and helping to arm Saddam in the 1980s. Then the whole cabal of neo-cons seriously miscalculated in their obsession to take down Saddam. Don’t know what they expected but seriously doubt that it was to leave a Shia dominated government with religious ties to Iran behind.
From the developments in the Middle-East since 2001, the Syrian uprising wasn’t about the Assad regime, except perhaps the first few weeks. See this article from 2010. The push for regime change in Syria was part of Neocon policy, even senator Kerry was caught off-guard trying to persuade Assad for quicker reforms in his administration.
A major breakthrough came when Maliki was elected to run the government in Baghdad, Iraq and divison with the Sunni population and the Kurds became evident. Saudi Arabia would not accept the new axis Teheran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut and joined the old colonial powers, Israel, Turkey and the US to overthrow Assad once the “uprising” took place. A bad choice, but it was a choice the Obama administration ran away with. Bullying of Russia and China in the UNSC failed miserably and there was never a united opposition front.
Reality has come to John Kerry and hopefully the parties involved in the conflict can come together for a political solution of transition to presidential and parliamentary elections by 2014.
How is this not amoral but otherwise manageable US policy for 21st century realpolitik in the region? It re-targets and localises jihadism while providing endless opportunities for tilting of scales and shifting of allegiances among various pan-Islamic panjandrums; much as the British did with their colonial empire.
It’s not just Iran, it’s about Saudi Arabia and the petro dollar.
That’s something that often get’s ignored. Be it climate change, Iraq, Iran, whatever, we need that. It’s a really important part of our economic prosperity and our global power. Because the dollar is used for the sale of oil globally it puts a demand on it and drives up the value of the dollar. Without this the value of the dollar would evaporate.
Iraq converted to the euro, we invaded. Iran advocates changing to another currency. Saudi backs us on using the dollar so we let them get away with it.
Any threat to the petro dollar is going to be dealt with. Which is one of the reasons our foreign and climate policy seems so insane. There’s a logic to it, it’s just grim as hell.
A bit more complicate. Iraq converted in late 2000. At that time the Euro was trading at less than a buck. The value of the Euro rose after the invasion.
Hey that’s nothing some laser guided bombs can’t sort out am I right?
How’d that 1954 coup d’etat that put the Pahlavis in power work out for you, CIA? Guarantee of future employment ad infinitum?
Because the New York Times is so close to the US intelligence community, I take the domestic political analysis of Iranian politics with several grains of salt.
But your bigger point is correct. The US has to have a clear idea of what its interests are. Unfortunately for 80 years, the business of oil has been the sole interest of the US in the Middle East.
So maybe for once we should look at our Middle East policy from this thought experiment. Suppose that the United States took the attitude that those with primary interest in the politics of the Middle East were the folks who actually live there. Complete withdrawal of all forward deployment installations in the Middle East and all foreign aid. Primary US presence is an embassy and a few commercially required consulates. And the US takes the attitude that the Middle Eastern countries have the diplomatic capabilities to work out their differences themselves.
Remember that this is a thought experiment, not a policy proposal–yet. What would be the consequences of such a hands off policy to US security of the homeland? What would be the consequences in the region?
IMO, the Sunni-Shia conflict is cover for a fundamental conflict between a monarchic caliphate and a oligarchic theocracy with mildly democratic underpinnings. The issues are political control, not doctrinal ideology. And for the past 80 years, the US has been on the side of monarchy.
In one respect, it should be irrelevant to the US who the Iranian political system picks as its symbolic administrative head of state. The theocratic veto power is a known quantity.
In 1954 and in 2003, the US got exactly what the hard-liners asked for. Maybe it’s time to stop listening to hardline scenarios.
The three key relationships in the region are Turkey, Iran, and Egypt. There will be stability when those three are on the same page diplomatically.
That would be when Turkey becomes a rabid theocracy as well. It may be stable, but not in our interest.
Yes, the 1954 coup worked great – took a hopeful democracy, replaced it with the Shah, and provided the perfect breeding ground for the rise of fundamentalism.
But don’t stop with Turkey, Iran, and Egypt. This basically describes the 3rd world policy of the US/CIA for most of recent history. Ho Chi Minh, for example, reached out to the US (and had a deep respect for the writings of James Madison, of all people) only to be rebuffed – like in Iran the problem was he wasn’t sufficiently subservient to US business leaders.
The Dixie Mission to Mao’s China in 1944. That was a momentous missed opportunity that destroyed the careers of those whom participated.
Hoo-boy, you mean 3 states that have been competing against each other for the last 2500 years?
That would be something!
I do think John McCain knows what he’s getting into. Wars mean explosion. John McCain likes explosions. What more do you need to know?
We shouldn’t go into Syria, now or in the foreseeable future.