You’ve Been Palinized

Ted Cruz is a real comedian.

“If you sit back and you list who are the brightest stars in the Republican Party, who are the most effective advocates for free-market principles, you come up with names like Marco Rubio, like Mike Lee, like Rand Paul, like Pat Toomey, like Scott Walker,” Cruz said as a man in the audience at the New York State Republican Party dinner yelled his name. 

“You have to go back to World War II to see such a transformation of the people leading the fight, leading the argument for conservative principles, being an entirely new generation of leaders stepping forward.” Cruz continued, describing the men who grew up while Reagan served in office. “In this new generation of leaders, you see the echoes of that same communication, that same love story of freedom, echoing we are right and all of us together are working to communicate that message.”

The idea that these clowns are “bright stars” is laughable. They’re wacko birds. Pretty much everything that they think they know about Ronald Reagan is false. About the only thing they should be giving Reagan credit for is starting the process of the conservative takeover of the Republican Party. Reagan made Ted Cruz possible, but he had very little in common with him.

For starters, Reagan had a personaility. When he stole little kids’ lunch money, he had a smile on his face. He wasn’t rude about it.

Mike Lee and Rand Paul are just aggressively stupid, and Ted Cruz specializes in weaponizing other people’s stupid. The future of the GOP isn’t bright; it’s dismal. It’s dismal because the party has been Palinized. And Cruz’s “bright stars” are the proof of that.

Chain Reaction

There are thirteen U.S. District Courts of Appeal. Some are big and some are small. The Ninth Circuit, which covers the West Coast, serves 61 million people. The DC Circuit represents about 600,000. That’s a technicality, though, because the DC Circuit covers the Federal Government and therefore really serves the whole country. The DC Circuit is considered to be second in importance to the Supreme Court, and its Justices are often promoted to the Supreme Court. For these reasons, the Republicans refused to confirm any nominees to the DC Circuit during Obama’s entire first term, even as vacancies grew to four.

Their justification for inaction was that the DC Circuit isn’t that busy and it doesn’t need any more judges. I can’t say whether that argument has any merit or not, but the number of seats assigned to each circuit is decided by Congress, and if they’ve assigned too many to DC the thing to do is to change the law.

As it stands, Congress has assigned 11 seats to the DC Circuit. Three still remain unfilled. Of the eight sitting judges, three were nominated by Clinton, three were nominated by Dubya, one was nominated by Poppy, and one was nominated by Obama. So, the court is split evenly at the moment, but if Obama fills the vacancies there will be an 7-4 advantage of Democratic nominees over Republicans ones.

The GOP doesn’t want that to happen. But Harry Reid is setting them up. As part of his effort to break the obstruction of nominees in general, he plans to introduce the nominations for all three vacancies and then dare the Republicans to filibuster them. If they do, he’ll go nuclear and (try to) take away their right to filibuster nominations. Then Reid will follow up with the nominations for Labor, the EPA, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and possibly vacancies on the National Labor Relations Board.

But none of this will happen until after the immigration reform bill is dispensed with.

Syrian Opposition Forces Caught with Sarin Gas in Turkey

Police foil al-Nusra bomb attack planned for Adana

(Today’s Zaman) – Seven members of Syria’s militant al-Nusra group were detained after police found sarin gas, which was reportedly going to be used in a bomb attack, during a search of the suspects’ homes, Turkish media have reported.

Newspapers claimed that two kilograms of sarin gas, which is usually used for making bombs and was banned by the UN in 1991, had been found in the homes of suspects detained in the southern provinces of Adana and Mersin. Twelve suspects were caught by the police on Monday. The reports claimed that the al-Nusra members had been planning a bomb attack for Thursday in Adana but that the attack was averted when the police caught the suspects.

Police on look-out for bomb-laden vehicle

In another incident in Adana, the police received intelligence that a bomb-laden vehicle had entered Adana, the bombs being of the same type used in a recent attack in Hatay’s Reyhanlı town, the Taraf daily reported. Security measures in Adana have been tightened in line with intelligence gathered.

The Hatay National Provincial Police Department said that police officers are guarding the roads in and out of the province and are keeping an eye out in the province for the vehicle mentioned in the intelligence.

On May 11, one car bomb exploded outside the town hall while another went off outside a post office in Reyhanlı, a main hub for Syrian refugees and opposition activity in Hatay. Fifty-two people were killed and as many as 100 were injured in the bombings.

Turkish police seek assailant seen crossing border with Syria

More below the fold …

Russia, US, UN set date for tri-partite talks on Syria: June 5

(JPost) – MOSCOW – Russian, US and UN officials will meet next week to discuss ways to bring the warring sides in Syria together for a peace conference, Russian news agencies quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying on Thursday.

“Preparations for the international conference on Syria will be discussed” at the three-way meeting in Geneva on June 5, Interfax quoted the unidentified Russian ministry source as saying.

The official said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and UN Under Secretary General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman would attend the June 5 meeting. State-run news agency RIA said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov would also take part.

Lavrov and Kerry agreed to the June 5 meeting in Geneva with UN representatives at talks in Paris earlier this week, the Russian Foreign Ministry official was quoted as saying.

Lavrov accused the opposition Syrian National Coalition of undermining peace efforts after it said on Wednesday it would take part in the conference only if a deadline was set for a settlement that would force Syrian President Bashar Assad to leave power.

Syrian opposition says no peace talks until Hezbollah, Iran halt fighting

(Hürriyet Daily) – Syria’s main opposition group said today it would not take part in proposed U.S.-Russia peace talks, a day after Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu participated in their Istanbul meeting.

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) will not take part in any international conference or any such efforts so long as the militias of Iran and Hezbollah continue their invasion of Syria,” the opposition acting chief George Sabra told reporters in Istanbul today, according to Agence France-Presse.

In addition to the question of participation in the proposed Geneva conference, the election of a new president, the agreeing on an interim government and the voting in of new members to join the group were the other main reasons for the gathering in Istanbul.

The minister addressed the opposition on behalf of the 11 core group members of Friends of Syria, a Turkish Foreign Ministry official told the Hürriyet Daily News ahead of his meeting on May 29.

The move came as a joint initiative of the members of the core group of the Friends of Syria, as the opposition’s meeting has been stalled for six days as of May 29, since the group failed to agree on any of the key talking points including participation in the proposed Geneva conference.

Surrender to imperfection at Geneva summit

(Hürriyet Daily) – Last week Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant movement, and the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched an assault against Syrian rebels in Qusayr, a strategic Syrian town close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, Der Spiegel reported that Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, which predicted less than a year ago that al-Assad’s regime would soon collapse, now believes al-Assad will make significant advances. And on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry admitted in a meeting with the Friends of Syria in Amman that the Syrian regime has made some gains in the last few days. Here comes the question: What happens if al-Assad wins Qusayr?

The fight for Qusayr is seen as a pivotal test for the opposing sides of the Syrian crisis since it will determine the direction of the war. Victory in Qusayr would allow the Syrian regime easy access to Tartus, the Mediterranean port city, where Russia could supply both oil and weapons in the event Damascus falls. It would also facilitate weapons transfers from Iran and from the Syrian regime to Hezbollah. Tartus also provides an entry to the coastal region dominated by al-Assad’s Alawite sect. This would not only provide an essential refuge for al-Assad, but also geographic continuity between Alawite areas in Syria and predominantly Shiite areas in Lebanon. Moreover, by reasserting its military superiority, the Syrian regime would gain a stronger negotiating position at the Geneva summit, which will take place next month in a bid to find a political solution to the Syrian conflict.

German Espionage Ship Off the Syrian Coast Is a War Act – Aug. 2012

House vs. Senate

Ed Markey is running to serve the remainder of John Kerry’s term in the Senate. He’s known as a champion on environmental issues. He arrived in the House of Representatives in 1976, and he obviously has a ton of seniority there. In the Senate, he will be at the bottom of the heap. It’s not even likely that he will be able to land a seat on a committee that has much to do with the environment, at least in the short term. So, The Hill asks whether he will have more or less clout in the Senate majority than he currently has in the House minority. Their answer is that he will have less clout in the short run, but more clout in the long run. That seems about right to me, although I wonder if Democratic members of the House can be said to have any clout at all.

Comey is a Bold Pick

Steve Benen makes a great point about President Obama’s choice of James Comey to be the next Director of the FBI.

But there’s one other angle that’s worth thinking about as the process unfolds: if Obama had any reason to worry about ongoing investigations casting the White House in a negative light, the president would not have chosen a Republican with a history of independence to lead the FBI. On the contrary, if Obama were the least bit concerned about the so-called “scandals,” he’d be eager to do the opposite — choosing a Democratic ally for the FBI.

If James Comey is known for anything, it’s for his willingness to stand up to the Bush administration and defend the rule of law. No one knew who Comey was until the story broke about the Bush administration’s illegal warrantless wiretapping program. It was then that it emerged that Bush chief of staff Andy Card and chief counsel Alberto Gonzales visited Attorney General John Ashcroft in his post-operative hospital bed in an attempt to get him to sign off on more warrantless wiretapping. At the time, James Comey was serving as acting Attorney General, and he got wind of the plot an raced to the hospital in time to protect Ashcroft and put an end to the criminal behavior of the administration.

If Comey was unwilling to look the other way during a Republican administration, there is no reason to believe he would help cover up any crimes committed by a Democratic one.

Springsteen’s “Factory”

Bruce Springsteen’s “Factory” has been rattling around my head recently. (If you are one of the handful of people to read my earlier diaries you may know I’m a big Bruce Springsteen fan. If not, well, I love the guy.)

“Factory” is the 7th track on Springsteen’s 1978 album Darkness on the Edge of Town. That album, one of Springsteen’s finest, is often thought of as a meditation on the “dark side” of the American dream. These are the songs one hears in the bleak, early morning dawn of a workday; in the drunken fight between a father and son, echoing up the street late at night; in the car tearing down the freeway just so the driver can pretend she has a place to go to. These aren’t hopeless songs; hope is Springsteen’s lodestar, and often the only thing his characters have to get them through their days.

But the songs on Darkness do reflect characters, or people, on the edge of hope. People who understand that their spirits are not invulnerable and can truly be broken if forced to bear too much of life’s weight. These men and women know that if they do not diverge from their current life paths soon, the world will crush them.

This mixture of hope and doom is especially present in “Factory.” Take a listen:

The song is about a blue-collar man who hates his job because it is everything he doesn’t want out of life. Only the need to survive has forced him into a job at the factory. Maybe this is the only work in town. Maybe he can’t move somewhere else because he lacks other job skills. Maybe he has a family to support. He knows he’s got to be a man and provide for them even if it kills his dreams. What are his dreams? The song doesn’t say.

Each lyric cuts like a cheap razor:

Early in the morning, factory whistle blows,
Man rises from bed and puts on his clothes

We feel the ache in the man’s bones as he wakes into yet another workday, no different from any that have come before. An endless string of days, full of physically difficult yet tedious work that doesn’t bring him any satisfaction.

Man takes his lunch, walks out in the morning light,
It’s the work, the working, just the working life.

Another morning in the hard light of adult reality. This is the life of a workingman, the one he was probably forced into only a few years out of childhood. He never had any real choice. It’s just what people have to do to get by; what most of the men he knows do. There’s not much joy to be had in his job, or “career” if you want to call it that. It’s just long hours of painful drudgery, and in the few moments of the day he has to himself – maybe while eating his lunch – he’s too tired or depressed to do anything but chew and watch his life slide past.

Through the mansions of fear, through the mansions of pain,
I see my daddy walking through them factory gates in the rain

The man’s young boy watches through a window as his father trudges off to the factory in the wet grey dawn. The boy sees the terrible burden his father carries for their family. He feels his father’s fear and sadness with the intensity of a child – the “mansions of fear” and “mansions of pain.” Bruce sings these lines operatically. The man’s deep anguish over his lot in life, as experienced through his empathic child, is certainly worthy of Puccini or Verdi.

Factory takes his hearing, factory gives him life,
The work, the working, just the working life.

The work – in a mine, or a manufacturing plant, or on an assembly line – is killing the man. It’s already cost him his hearing. Either the man’s health or his sanity will go next. Yet the factory is, paradoxically, what keeps the man and his family alive, pays their bills, puts food on their table. So the man just has to keep going everyday. This is his life now. The working life. Ain’t never gonna change.

End of the day, factory whistle cries,
Men walk through these gates with death in their eyes

The day is finally over. But it has wrecked the men who work in the factory. The job is so physically and emotionally draining that they stagger out exhausted, in pain. It has been a traumatic experience. They are shellshocked, like at the end of another day of war.

And you just better believe boy,
Somebody’s gonna get hurt tonight,
It’s the work, the working, just the working life.
‘Cause it’s the work, the working, just the working life.

Exhaustion gives way to anger. At the bars later that night, where the men try to obliviate their pain, fights will break out. They fight each other because they have to express their frustration and despair somehow, and the only societally-approved way for them to do it is through violence. They can’t hold all that inside. It’s the fallout from their lives of sacrifice. From the working life.

“Factory” makes me think about labor issues and the way that we on the American left often romanticize the types of blue-collar jobs that were widely available during the mid-20th century. The jobs that people like Bruce Spingsteen’s father had (in a rug mill and later in a plastics plant, where he actually did lose some of his hearing). Labor history often serves as our version of the “good old days”: we think fondly on the mid-20th century when middle-class manufacturing jobs were widely available to people with only high school educations, or less. Conservatives look at social issues through this kind of nostalgic lens; for us, it’s labor.

But the left’s desire to commemorate better economic times for the middle class (in order, hopefully, to bring those times back again) causes us to forget how difficult and unpleasant so much manufacturing work was and is. These are tough, tough jobs, often involving a toxic combination of long hours, monotony, and significant physical challenge and risk. A 2002 letter by a former Bethlehem steel worker put it well:

There seems to be a lot of negativity toward steelworkers’ wages, benefits and pensions lately. I wonder if the critics know what it’s like to work the swing shift for 30 years. I wonder if they know what it’s like to work every weekend. Do they know what it’s like to work 14 days in a row with no overtime pay?

I wonder if the critics know what it’s like to be out in an ice storm at 3 a.m., climbing 40 feet in the air on a frozen crane, holding flaming asbestos torches against live wires to thaw the ice so the crane runs. Do they know what it’s like to work in 95-degree heat with high humidity while pushing 30-pound cast iron lids on top of a coke oven that’s 135 degrees? We had to wear wooden shoes so our feet wouldn’t melt! Do they read signs at work that say, “Don’t eat or drink in this area because it contains cancer-causing smoke and dust”? I guess we shouldn’t have breathed there either. But it was okay to work there!

Or check out this article on life as a meatpacker:

Numbers aside, the GAO also says the industry is still plenty dangerous, with knife-wielding workers standing for long hours on fast-moving lines, chemicals, animal waste and factory floors that can be dark, loud, slippery or unbearably hot or bitterly cold.

The risks are many: cuts and stabbings, burns, repetitive stress injuries, amputations and worse.

Knife accidents blinded one meat worker and disfigured the face of another, the GAO said, citing OSHA records. Oscar Montoya lost most of his left index finger in a 1999 accident using a huge split-saw to divide cattle carcasses. He had three operations, returned to meatpacking, then finally quit.

“It was just a lot harder than I thought it would be,” he says. He’s now a heating and air-conditioner repairman.

And here’s a slightly out-of-date list of the worst jobs of 2011. Almost all of them are in the manufacturing industries or otherwise involve a lot of physical labor. These aren’t jobs most people would aspire to (although some of the comments at that site dispute this, and are worth a read). They’re jobs people take to support their families, and maybe one day push their kids another rung up the economic ladder.

The manufacturing jobs many workers had in the “good old days” of the middle class were also much more dangerous than they are today. For example, in 2012, there were 35 fatalities nationwide in the mining industry. In 1965, there were 255 fatalities in the coal sector alone. And that’s not to mention the slower but still agonizing deaths caused by black lung and other occupational diseases common to the manufacturing sector.

I guess what I’m trying to get at is that when progressives talk about old-school manufacturing jobs that a much bigger percentage of the working population used to have, we need to keep in mind what the actual lived experience of those jobs was and is. They are, generally speaking, very hard and often grueling. And over time they can become soul-killing, as Springsteen details in “Factory” and, less directly, in many of the other songs on Darkness.

So when we hear about outsourcing and technology eliminating manufacturing jobs in the US, we ought to keep in mind that in many ways Americans are better off not having to do that kind of work anymore, if other less backbreaking jobs for the same (and hopefully unionized) pay and benefits are available. Obviously, that’s not really the case these days, which is the whole reason we cherish those manufacturing jobs in the first place. Any job is better than no job at all. And for folks who still work in industries that require a lot of difficult physical labor, then all the more reason for them to get a living wage, decent health care, and real pensions.

But when we cast the employment levels of the 1950’s and 60’s as an ideal, we don’t have to romanticize the jobs many of those men and women did. They probably wouldn’t. It was the work, the working, just the working life. Nothing more.

What’s a Moderate, Anyway?

What constitutes moderation in Democratic politics? Which policies of mainstream Democrats are simply unacceptable to South Dakotans, for example? I think these are questions that need to be empirically tested. South Dakota clearly preferred Mitt Romney to Barack Obama, but it isn’t entirely clear why they felt that way. While Republicans absolutely dominate on the local level, the Democrats have done very well in recent years on the federal Senate/House level. Why is that?

These same dynamics have played out in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats have overperformed in Senate contests. Senators like Max Baucus, Jon Tester, Byron Dorgan, Kent Conrad, Tim Johnson, and Tom Daschle have certainly been frustrating at times, but it’s hard to find all that much commonality between them in terms of their apostacy from the party platform. I suppose they have probably been less environmentally friendly than your average Democrat. They’ve been cozy with the banking and credit card industries. They’ve been a bit more socially conservative than their peers.

If I had to name something really out of whack, it’s been their obsession with the deficit. Because the other stuff is easily explainable by the fact that they represent sparesly-populated states with a lot of mining and financial services activity and not much religious or ethnic diversity, their love of austerity sticks out.

Opposition to big spending seems to be a requirement in these northern plains states. Is that the key ingredient for success? Or is it possible to use a different playbook? How much of a role does personality play? Jon Tester and Max Baucus don’t seem much alike but they both have success. Kent Conrad struck me as quite a bit more conservative than Byron Dorgan, who could be quite openly partisan at times.

I understand the urge to find a candidate who is seen as moderate, but I can’t pinpoint what moderate really means.

Soldier Whose Memory Was Gone, Remembers to Avoid Death

Soldier charged with killing 16 Afghan villagers agrees to plead guilty to avoid death penalty

SEATTLE — The Army staff sergeant charged with slaughtering 16 villagers during one of the worst atrocities of the Afghanistan war has agreed to plead guilty in a deal to avoid the death penalty, his attorney told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Staff Sgt. Robert Bales is scheduled to enter guilty pleas to charges of premeditated murder June 5 at Joint Base Lewis-McChord south of Seattle, said lawyer John Henry Browne. A sentencing-phase trial set for September will determine whether he is sentenced to life in prison with or life without the possibility of parole. The judge and commanding general must approve a plea deal.

Browne previously indicated Bales remembered little from the night of the massacre, but he said the soldier will give a full account of what happened before the judge decides whether to accept the plea.

Bales, an Ohio native and father of two from Lake Tapps, Wash., slipped away from his remote southern Afghanistan outpost at Camp Belambay early on March 11, 2012, and attacked mud-walled compounds in two slumbering villages nearby.

Most of the victims were women and children, and some of the bodies were piled and burned. The slayings drew such angry protests that the U.S. temporarily halted combat operations in Afghanistan. It was three weeks before American investigators could reach the crime scenes.

Bales was serving his fourth tour in a combat zone, and the allegations against him raised questions about the toll multiple deployments were taking on American troops. For that reason, many legal experts believed it that it was unlikely that he would receive the death penalty, as Army prosecutors were seeking. The military justice system hasn’t executed anyone since 1961.

Nevertheless, the plea deal could inflame tensions in Afghanistan. In interviews with the AP in Kandahar in April, relatives of the victims became outraged at the notion Bales might escape the death penalty and even vowed revenge.

“For this one thing, we would kill 100 American soldiers,” said Mohammed Wazir, who had 11 family members killed that night, including his mother and 2-year-old daughter.

Staff Sgt. Robert Bales was found liable in financial fraud

Sunni Jihadists, Shia Hezbollah in fierce battle for key town of Syria’s Qusayr

Elite troops in pivotal battle for Syria’s Qusayr

(AFP) – Syrian elite troops rushed to bolster a Hezbollah-led offensive against rebels in Qusayr as the UN Human Rights Council condemned the use of foreign fighters in the strategic town.

Russia warned a European Union decision to lift its arms embargo on rebels fighting to oust its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, harmed its joint efforts with the United States to end the conflict.

Hopes are building for a US-Russian initiative for a peace conference to be held in Geneva next month, but serious obstacles could still scupper the talks — not least divisions within Syria’s opposition.

Syrian army in control of Qusayr and Dabaa military airfield

On the ground, elite Syrian Republican Guards and Hezbollah fighters rushed to Qusayr as government fighter jets pounded rebel areas, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The Syrian army said it had seized the disused Dabaa military airfield north of Qusayr which had been in rebel hands and that fierce fighting was raging in the area. A military source told AFP the battle for the airfield was fierce and lasted several hours. “The operation led to the liberation of the airport and the deaths of several men who were inside.

“There are bodies littering the ground, rebels have been captured and others surrendered. The army is now advancing on the town of Dabaa,” the source added. The capture of the airfield means that the Syrian army now controls all the roads leading out of Qusayr — a serious setback for rebels still entrenched in the north and west of the town.

 « click for story

Control of Qusayr is essential for the rebels as it is their principal transit point for weapons and fighters from Lebanon while it helps the army consolidate its grip on a key road from Damascus to the coast — the heartland of Assad’s Alawite community.

National Coalition may fall apart

Meanwhile, his divided opponents in the National Coalition were meeting in Istanbul for an unscheduled seventh day under pressure from Turkey and the US to thrash out a common position on the planned Geneva talks. A string of top diplomats arrived Wednesday at the meeting in what looked like a last-ditch effort to break a deadlock in the Coalition.

Dissidents say the chaotic meeting has been deadlocked by internal bickering as well as conflicting pressures from key backers of the revolt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, Turkey and the United States. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and a top French diplomat on Syria were at the meeting along with a Saudi intelligence official and a top Qatari diplomat.

Syrian civil war spillover in Lebanon

Syria: is a war of words turning into an arms race?

May 29, 2013 – International papers focus on a war of words over selling arms to Syria. The Guardian say Russia, Britain and France aren’t paving the way to a ceasefire like they say they are. Also, L’Orient le Jour says Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is playing with fire by intervening in the Syrian conflict. Asharq al-Awsat says he has ignited a sectarian fire in the region.

France24: Crossing into Syria with Lebanese pro-Assad militia

Know What You Are Getting Into

Thomas Erdbrink reports in the New York Times on Iranian presidential candidate Saeed Jalili. Mr. Jalili is a hardliner who is close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been the chief nuclear negotiator for Iran. A veteran who lost a leg in the Iraq-Iran war, he campaigns under the banner of “the resistance.” This a new concept in the West, but it should inform how we view current events not only in Iran, but in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even the Occupied Territories of Palestine. If you want to know why Iraq and Syria are so embroiled in sectarian conflict and why it is so hard to find reason for hope, you need to understand “the resistance.”

“Welcome, living martyr, Jalili,” the audience shouted in unison, most of them too young to have witnessed the bloody conflict themselves but deeply immersed in the national veneration of its veterans. Waving flags belonging to “the resistance” — the military cooperation among Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and some Palestinian groups — the crowd roared the candidate’s election slogan: “No compromise. No submission. Only Jalili.”

Iran is a Shia Islam theocracy with a bit of representative democracy thrown in. In the past, Iran has had some decent elections, but Ayatollah Khamenei and the Council of Guardians have been taking increasing control of the process in recent years. They control who can be on the ballot, and in 2009 they seem to have tampered with the actual counting of the vote. Jalili’s path to election was smoothed recently when former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s chosen successor were disqualified.

Jalili’s supporters see themselves as sectarian brawlers in a regional fight against Sunnis, but they frame themselves as champions of the oppressed. That is why they have the support of the Iranian leadership and clergy.

“The best president,” Mr. Khamenei said on Monday, speaking to students at a military academy, “is the one who powerfully resists the enemy and will turn the Islamic republic into an international example for the oppressed people of the world.”

Khameini is officially neutral, but that’s a charade. Jalili will advance his vision.

On Friday, during the campaign event in Tehran, Mr. Jalili chose to explain his policies by citing the first imam of the Shiites, the martyr Ali.

“All across the region we can hear our battle cry, ‘Ya Ali,’ ” said Mr. Jalili, who wrote a dissertation on the Prophet Muhammad’s foreign policy. “We heard it in Lebanon with the victory of Hezbollah. We hear it in our resistance against the Zionist regime. Time and time again we have proved our strength through this slogan.”

As songs played memorializing the battles in the border town of Shalamcheh during the Iran-Iraq war, men punched their fists in the air and shouted, “The blood in our veins belongs to our leader.”

The goal of Iran and its allies, Mr. Jalili said, is to “uproot capitalism, Zionism and Communism, and promote the discourse of pure Islam in the world.”

They talk about capitalism, Zionism, and Communism, but the actual fighting is taking place in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon. It’s primarily a fight between Sunnis and Shiites, with the Iranian leadership trying to take the moral high ground by framing it as resistance against outside oppressors and anti-Islamic ideologies.

If his supporters harbored worries over what these policies might mean for the Iranian economy, they kept them to themselves. “We are fighting an ideological war — nobody cares about the economy,” said Amir Qoroqchi, 25, a smiling electrical engineering student from the holy city of Qum. “The only thing that matters is resistance.”

Hizbollah is a Lebanese Shiite political party and paramilitary force that was basically built by the Iranians to resist the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. They humiliated Israel in a 2006 war, gaining them widespread support and admiration throughout the Muslim world. But they have just decided to make a total commitment to saving the Assad regime in Syria. This probably spells the beginning of a new civil war in Lebanon, as the Sunnis there will not sit on their hands.

Complicating matters, many if not most of the Sunni fighters in Syria and Iraq are just as infused with sectarian religious fervor and anti-Western ideology as the Iranian-backed soldiers. Many of them identify with the goals of al-Qaeda.

This is the shape of the mess that Sen. John McCain is so eager for our country to jump into. In Iran, this is seen as one big regional battle. Syria is just one part of it. It’s a fight for one version of Islam over another, and a fight against the West.

It is not a fight that we can enter casually, thinking that it will soon be over and we can come home. Two hundred and sixty years elapsed between the time that Martin Luther published his 95 theses and when the U.S. Constitution was ratified. People can fight over religion for a very long time before they get exhausted.