With the unfortunate passing of Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, Republican Governor Chris Christie will be allowed to appoint a replacement and set the date for a special election. Since it is widely believed that Christie intends to be a presidential candidate in 2016, his choices could have significant political ramifications. He also faces reelection this year, so he has to consider that, too.
It is not uncommon for governors who are deliberating Senate appointments to come under pressure to select someone who will not actually seek to run for the seat in the special election. For example, Massachusetts Governor Duval Patrick chose William Cohan, who promised not to be a candidate, to replace John Kerry when he was confirmed to be Secretary of State. Before that, Gov. Patrick appointed Paul Kirk to replace Teddy Kennedy. Kirk also declined to run in the special election. One reason governors do this is to avoid favoritism if more than one member of their party intends to contend for the seat.
On the other hand, there are advantages to incumbency and also the advantage of seniority within the Senate that come with appointing someone who will contend for the seat. Lautenberg had already announced his retirement and Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone were already gearing up to run for the Democratic nomination to replace him. Either one would probably be favored to beat any conceivable Republican, so getting the advantage of incumbency is an important consideration for the GOP.
Christie has conflicting priorities. He doesn’t want to alienate moderates who voted both for him and for Obama because he needs them to win reelection. Yet, he doesn’t want to alienate the conservative base of the party by appointing someone who will go to Washington and vote with the Democrats because he has presidential aspirations and wants to win the Republican nomination.
He could choose a placeholder like former governor and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission Tom Kean, or former governor and chairwoman of the Environmental Protection Agency Christie Todd Whitman. He could pick someone from the congressional delegation, although they’d be less likely to want to give up their seat for a short-lived career in the Senate. Maybe there is someone close to Christie, on his staff perhaps, who he’d like to see in the position. Or, he could pick some conservative hero to gain credibility with the base.
Finally, he could decide that he will pick sides and select someone who does intend to run in the special election. This, quite possibly, would cause some dissension within the New Jersey Republican Party, which is not something that would be particularly helpful to Christie’s reelection efforts. But, assuming Christie wins reelection, the legacy of his pick would be based primarily on whether they were able to retain the seat for the Republicans.
His safest bet is probably Tom Kean. Kean is 78 and I don’t know what his energy-level is, but hardly anyone would complain if he were a placeholder candidate.
