BREAKING NEWS: Syria Crossed Obama’s Red Line [Update]

17 Comments

1. 

   Oui on June 13, 2013 at 5:32 pm

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   Does Bill Clinton remember Lord Owen from the Bosnia history lessons? Some people learn, some do not … Hillary and Bill Clinton belong to the latter.

   Syrians need a regional settlement that is owned by the region – and the UN security council must make that happen  by Lord David Owen

   The lesson of history for dealing with Syria in 2013 is to avoid a repeat of 1919. At the Paris conference dominated by the United States, Britain and France, Lloyd George was heard to say: “Mesopotamia … yes … oil … irrigation … we must have Mesopotamia [which was destined to be in Iraq]. Palestine … yes. The Holy Land … Zionism … we must have Palestine. Syria … hm; what is there in Syria? Let the French have that.” Henceforth Damascus was under the French, and the Emir Faisal I, King of Greater Syria, was double-crossed, and with him, Lawrence of Arabia..

   Cross-posted from my diary.

2. 

   BooMan on June 13, 2013 at 5:37 pm

   at this point, I wonder if it’s even possible for a president to keep us out of non-stop war.  When Washington decides its prestige is on the line, look what happens.  

   Once he put a red line out there, it was going to get crossed one way or another.  

   I’d like to know if Obama is orchestrating this because he’s finally changed his mind or if he has simply been cornered.  

   • 

     Oui on June 13, 2013 at 5:44 pm

     It was a “Breaking News” headline on CNN International, but I couldn’t find any news links yet except for Russia Today news item.

     Later I found the NY Times story with “leaked insider information” from the White House. So it just may be more Dangerous Warmongering, what do you think?

3. 

   Shaun Appleby on June 13, 2013 at 6:56 pm

   Debka (yeah, I know) is pitching this decision as Obama not intervening in Syria. Sounds to me like he is potentially letting the insurrection fold.

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     yastreblyansky on June 13, 2013 at 8:55 pm

     More 11 dimensions? Obama has to show he favors intervention in order to not intervene? (That’s how it’s been working with Iran, right?)

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       Shaun Appleby on June 14, 2013 at 8:29 pm

       Just trying to get the TNC and FSA to Geneva. It’s our only hope at this point.

4. 

   Marie2 on June 13, 2013 at 7:37 pm

   This is bs — the Assad regime isn’t stupid (or crazy like Gaddafi) and doesn’t need to use nerve gas.

   Not buying that this is only coincidental to Liz Sly’s WAPO freakout and Bill Clinton’s latest finger wagging.

   We have heard this same crap for close to seventy years now — and even if we can’t smell the stench, at some point people get bored with a franchise’s sequels.  

   • 

     seabe on June 13, 2013 at 7:43 pm

     Me either. Not buying it.

5. 

   Oui on June 14, 2013 at 12:14 am

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   Warmongering by Turkey after Israeli air strikes inside Syria in February. After repeated accusations, some intelligence agencies came forward telling the world they had “proof” chemical weapons were used by Assad’s forces.

   Israeli spy says Syria used chemical arms, US unconvinced

   JERUSALEM, Israel (Daily Star Lebanon/Reuters) Apr. 23, 2013 – Syrian government forces have used chemical weapons – probably nerve gas – in their fight against rebels trying to force out President Bashar al-Assad, the Israeli military’s top intelligence analyst said.

   The assessment met with scepticism from the United States, which has declared any use of chemical weapons in Syria’s two-year-old civil war a “red line” that could trigger intervention.

   U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the latter “was not in a position to confirm” the briefing given by Itai Brun, a military intelligence brigadier-general, at a Tel Aviv conference.

   “I don’t know what the facts are,” Kerry told reporters in Brussels.

   Netanyahu’s office declined comment on Kerry and Brun’s remarks, made a day after U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said while visiting Israel that Washington’s spy agencies were still assessing whether such weapons had been employed.

   Hagel: Syria has used chemical weapons

   • Kerry handles diplomacy, Hagel gets the military contracts in Saudi Arabia
   • ‘Saudi Arabia’s state coffers fund Salafi fighting units in Syria, Libya and Mali’

   Some links from my recent diary – Key City Qusayr Fallen to Assad’s Forces.

6. 

   Oui on June 14, 2013 at 12:21 am

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   Chemical Weapons in Syria: Fact, Fiction, and Fib by Aron Lund

   (Syria Comment) Dec. 8, 2012 – On the WMD discussion in your last post, which I think was spot on: My guess is that what’s happening is that some intelligence agencies are really picking up signals of WMD motion on the ground, but that the dramatic “mixing sarin and putting it into bombs” info is pure propaganda. It seems designed to spook the public, make a case for intervention, and, to some extent, force the hand of the Obama administration.

   In the unlikely event that Assad has really started activating his WMD capacity, it could be for a military purpose or as a political signal. There are basically three things he would be interested in:

   1. to threaten any would-be intervention force, e.g. Turkey,
   2. to remind everyone that he could carry out a lethal last strike on Israel if the regime falls,
   3. possibly, to shift chemical material over to allies in Lebanon, to create a kind of second-strike capability if the regime is attacked and unable to respond.

   None of these things involve gassing populated areas in Syria with air-dropped bombs. It could perhaps be done, but it would be hugely counter-productive, not least in terms of an international response, and it’s obviously dangerous on a complex close-quarters battlefield such as Syria’s.

   Holy Warriors – A field guide to Syria’s jihadi groups.

7. 

   Oui on June 14, 2013 at 12:29 am

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   Why haven’t we read this news item in the WPM – Western Propaganda Media?

   Police foil al-Nusra bomb attack planned for Adana

   ADANA, Turkey (Today’s Zaman) May 30, 2013 – Seven members of Syria’s militant al-Nusra group were detained after police found sarin gas, which was reportedly going to be used in a bomb attack, during a search of the suspects’ homes, Turkish media have reported.

   Newspapers claimed that two kilograms of sarin gas, which is usually used for making bombs and was banned by the UN in 1991, had been found in the homes of suspects detained in the southern provinces of Adana and Mersin. Twelve suspects were caught by the police. The reports claimed that the al-Nusra members had been planning a bomb attack in Adana but that the attack was averted when the police caught the suspects.

   Posted earlier @BooMan Tribune – Syrian Opposition Forces Caught with Sarin Gas in Turkey.

8. 

   Oui on June 14, 2013 at 2:53 am

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   Beyond the millions of deaths caused by US intervention policy in recent three decades, what does the world do for the real humanitarian crisis?

   • DRC
   • Darfur
   • UNHCR Africa and Asia

   Making US humanitarian aid to Syria a political tool is ineffective – and dangerous

   (ChristianScienceMonitor) – As conditions in Syria deteriorate into the greatest humanitarian crisis since the Darfur conflict, the aid response has been increasingly put under the microscope. Syrian citizens and opposition leaders have rightly argued that not enough is being done to meet humanitarian needs.

   While security concerns and a country with divided leadership and loyalties have forced us, and virtually all of the groups providing relief in northern Syria, to maintain an extremely low profile, I am speaking out now because the flawed narrative of “absent aid” threatens to hurt the people of Syria and endanger the aid groups working to help them.

   Prominent policymakers and commentators have argued that in light of perceived aid failures, the United States should use its humanitarian aid toward explicitly political aims. Over the past few months, calls have been growing for routing US humanitarian aid through groups that are themselves party to the conflict. The intent is to use this relief as a political tool to support the main opposition alliance and to win the US political credit with the population at large.

   Riots in refugee camps for Syrians inside Turkey

   • Iraqi refugees in Syria feel new strains of war
9. 

   Oui on June 14, 2013 at 7:24 am

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   Opinions of just a few days now part of history and/or fiction …

   Ignore the Backseat Drivers

   At a recent closed-door event (where remarks were recorded, of course), Bill Clinton reportedly said President Obama risks looking like a “wuss” and a “fool” for staying on the sidelines in Syria. John McCain, who never met a war he didn’t want to mong (H/T Jim, Foolish Literalist), angrily attended that same event and angrily agreed with Clinton’s assessment. McCain has been angrily emitting angry noises about Obama’s reluctance to open up a third conflict for months now.

   To his credit, Obama has ignored the backseat drivers so far. Here’s Booman, via commenter lamh36:  

   • From villain to our national hero – McCain Not Aware of Rebel Kidnappers

     

10. 

    Oui on June 14, 2013 at 10:32 am

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    There is NO conclusive evidence Assad’s forces used sarin gas causing the deaths of 100-150 persons. None of the earlier propaganda video’s and statements from rebels claimed this number of deaths. Pinocchio award range 5.

     « click for story
    Colin Powell holding a model vial of anthrax at UN Security Council (Wikipedia)

    U.N. cautious about French claims Syrian forces used nerve gas

    UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) June 5, 2013 – U.N. investigators reacted cautiously to France’s announcement that laboratory tests proved that President Bashar al-Assad’s forces had used nerve gas in Syria’s civil war, saying it was vital to know the chain of custody of the samples.

    Paris handed the results to the U.N. chemical weapons investigation team, headed by Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom. “Mr. Sellstrom cautions that the validity of the information is not ensured in the absence of convincing evidence of the chain-of-custody of the data collected.”

    The White House also reacted cautiously to the French announcement, saying the United States was not ready to say the Syrian government used chemical weapons in the war-ravaged country.

    Russia warns US against repeating Iraq war mistake

    • Syrian Opposition Rebels Caught with Sarin Gas in Turkey
    • Arming Syrian Fighters is a Travesty of Reality – Feb. 2012
    • Hafez al-Assad never used gas warfare in Hama (1982)
11. 

    Oui on June 14, 2013 at 6:23 pm

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    Former speechwriter and now National Security Advisor to President Obama … speaking about known unknowns:

    On-the-Record Conference Call by Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes on Syria

    Today, at the President’s direction, we have pulled together a revision of our intelligence community assessment that we have provided to Congress and we are now updating the public now.  I’ll just draw your attention to a few elements of that assessment in our response.

    First of all, our intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.  Our intelligence community has high confidence given the multiple independent streams of information associated with their reporting.

    The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date.  I would note that that casualty data is likely incomplete, but that is what we’ve reviewed through our investigation.

    This is clearly a small portion of the catastrophic loss of life in Syria that now totals more than 90,000 deaths.  But as we’ve consistently said, the use of chemical weapons violates international norms and crosses red lines that have existed in the international community for decades.

    I’d also note that we believe that the Assad regime maintains control of chemical weapons within Syria, and we have not seen any reliable reporting or corroborated reporting indicating that the opposition has acquired or used chemical weapons.

    This information is something that we are sharing with friends and allies.  We’ve already briefed some allies on this information, and we’ve also provided it to the United Nations.

    The President’s calculus has changed

    In terms of the United States, the President, as you’ve heard him say, has made it clear that the use of chemical weapons or transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups is a red line, given the fact that there’s a long-established international norm against the use of chemical weapons.  We now have a high-confidence assessment that chemical weapons have been used on a small scale by the Assad regime.  And so he has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has.

12. 

    Oui on June 15, 2013 at 1:43 pm

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    Just as Hillary gave her support to George Bush to invade Iraq in 2003 and Bill Clinton gives support to President Obama, the great British magician Tony Blair is also expressing support … Thus all old colonial powers are aligned to give support to the Syrian people foreign fighters to overthrow President Assad. John Kerry concedes today a political solution is beyond reach, war it will be!

    Tony Blair calls for west to intervene in Syria conflict

    (The Guardian) – Britain should arm the Syrian rebels and consider imposing a no-fly zone over Syria to prevent “catastrophic consequences”, Tony Blair has said. The former prime minister said the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government and the involvement of Iran in the civil war meant intervention was necessary.

    “You’ve got the intervention of Hezbollah, at the instigation of Iran. The other big change is the use of chemical weapons. Once you allow that to happen – and this will be the first time since Saddam used them in the 1980s– you run the risk of it then becoming an acceptable form of warfare, for both sides,” he told the Times.

     « click for story
    Barack Obama makes Tony Blair his unofficial 'first friend' (The Guardian)

    This week the US said it would arm Syrian rebels after claiming to have evidence that the regime of Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons – although it did not reveal its evidence or say when and where the weapons were used.

    Discussions are under way between the US and key foreign allies over options for further intervention in the conflict, including a no-fly zone, and are likely to come to a head during the G8 summit in Northern Ireland, when Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold bilateral discussions.

    • Syria no-fly zone would violate international law, says Russia

    The surprise win in Iran’s election of a new president, should make the political option the number one priority. Israel’s nemesis Ahmadinejad is gone and can’t be used as cover to attack the state of Iran. My diary – – Iranian Surprise in Presidential Election – Rohani Wins!!.

    • 

      Oui on June 15, 2013 at 4:21 pm

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      Depends on your comprehension of political statements where Kerry looks for a butt-out and puts blame on foreign fighters Hezbollah and Assad’s lack of commitment – read General Salem Idriss interview with CNN’s Amanpour. The words and conditions are identical. When the FSA has the advantage, we’ll place our conditions on the table and won’t negotiate with the Assad puppets. We need weapons immediately, or we’ll be defeated by the dogs of Assad.

      UPDATE 1-U.S. says political solution to Syria conflict in jeopardy

      (Reuters) – The use of chemical weapons by Syrian government forces and the involvement of Hezbollah fighters show President Bashar al-Assad’s lack of commitment to negotiations and threaten to “put a political settlement out of reach,” the U.S. State Department said on Saturday, citing comments by Secretary of State John Kerry.

      The State Department issued a statement after Kerry spoke with Iraq’s foreign minister.

      “The secretary reaffirmed that the United States continues to work aggressively for a political solution with the goal of a second Geneva meeting, but that the use of chemical weapons and increasing involvement of Hezbollah demonstrates the regime’s lack of commitment to negotiations and threatens to put a political settlement out of reach,” the department said.  

      John Kerry wasn’t aware of the surprise election result in Iran, which illustrates once again the democratic fiber of the Shia population are centuries ahead of the medieval Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia or the Salafists rebels who run the countries in the Arab Uprising. Kerry postpones Mideast visit amid Syria talks.