Maggie Haberman goes all Politico on us while discussing the possibility that Hillary Clinton will not run for the presidency in 2016.
For Democrats, there is no fallback: It’s Hillary Clinton or probably a long bout of depression ahead of 2016.
With expectations hitting a fever pitch three-and-a-half years out that Clinton is running for president again, every move she makes – a video endorsing gay marriage, a coy line about supporting a woman president – moves the excitement a notch higher. So too do endorsements from former critics – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, among others.
Democrats openly describe their surprise at seeing such consensus around a candidate so early. The hope of retaining the White House in an open-seat election is very real — and the letdown that will set in among Democratic activists and operatives will be very deep if Clinton takes a pass on a campaign, as she may well do.
I have my problems with Hillary Clinton, and I have my problems with most of the likely alternatives to Hillary Clinton, but the idea that there are no alternatives is idiotic.
For starters, we have Vice-President Joe Biden. He might not be able to beat Clinton in a primary, but the premise here is that Clinton won’t be running. I’d argue that Biden is in a stronger position both with the base of the party and with the country at large than the Iran-Contra-embroiled Poppy Bush was at the outset of the 1988 campaign. Obama’s coalition is still bigger than Clinton’s, and Biden’s loyalty will be rewarded.
Whatever you think about him, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo would be a formidable and well-funded candidate. I can’t think of any sitting Republican governors from the last two cycles who were as well-situated as Cuomo will be if Clinton doesn’t run.
Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley would be a serious candidate who could easily hold together the Obama coalition in the event he secured the nomination.
Progressives would probably rally behind Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who might be a sitting U.S. Senator by 2016. That makes it unlikely that he will run for president, but one never knows. He has the potential to expand the Democrats’ appeal in the West and among some of the more libertarian-minded folks, while simultaneously invigorating the base of the party.
I don’t think Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick should be underestimated. Nor should Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York or Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. While I’m now getting down into long-shot territory, all of these candidates make a mockery of the 2012 Republican field, and they seem superior to flawed candidates like Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, or Marco Rubio who are currently being discussed as 2016 candidates.
I think people recognize that Hillary Clinton has the potential to be a complete game-changer in terms of how large of a victory she could pull off. That has a lot of people salivating, hoping that she might have enormous coattails. But it looks right now like we can beat almost any Republican with almost any Democrat, and we have a huge bench while the Republicans appear to have an empty cupboard.
If I thought the GOP base was capable of picking a Mitch Daniels or a Jeb Bush or a Jon Huntsman, I’d be more worried. But they want nothing to do with such squishy candidates.
The Democrats will be just fine if Clinton doesn’t run, and most of us know it.
AGREED.
I’ve been saying for months that Hillary won’t run because of health issues. We’ll see whether or not I’m right in about a year.
But to say that there isn’t an alternative??? I have no idea who is going to come out of the shadows, the limelight, or from obscurity but does anyone REALLY think there will be noone else running EVEN IF SHE DOES RUN?
C’mon people, we’re talking about Democrats here. You know, ask three Dems a policy question and get 5 answers?
I actually hope she doesn’t run. The hype with Clinton is always much better than the reality of Clinton.
That perfectly sums up my feelings on the Clintons. I do think that if Hillary is going to run though, she needs to get off her butt and start working to mobilize Dems against anti-women legislation at the state level or something. Just touring the country and collecting money for speeches is going to allow someone to step into the spotlight.
I’ve been really impressed with Gillibrand especially on sexual assault/violence in the military.
I really don’t see any area where Clinton has established herself without peer. She definitely has name recognition but even there it is by no means all positive.
Hillary hasn’t really done anything significant on her own during her entire political career. In the Senate, she did nothing. As SoS, she worked for Obama. She’s got a great PR team but that’s about it.
I like Gillibrand and O’Malley best for 2016. Having to settle for Hillary would be a disappointment.
I’m certainly not a fan of her voting record in the Senate and I’m pleased that President Obama did not take her advice on many matters, including Syria.
The reality of a Clinton State Department was pretty impressive. She did a bang-up job.
I actually think her record at State is mixed–but that is a long conversation.
The actual Dept. was in terrible shape and so I think they did do an excellent job of rebuilding, but she had a seasoned Deputy handling that.
I will vote for Hillary in the General Election.
A Primary? NO.
Meanwhile, the news from North Carolina is that the State Capital Police were pulling zip-tie handcuffs so tight around the wrists of particularly older women that those ladies were (1) experiencing numbness and (2) the police had trouble getting scissors in to cut the zip-ties when they were release.
This is a form of extrajudicial punishment meant to discourage older women in particular from civil disobedience during these protests, trying to limit the number of people being arrested (around 75 last night). Although it is a very common standard operating practice it is both illegal and unconstitutional. The governor apparently wants to get rid of the embarrassment of multiple demonstrations and arrests every week. People petitioning for redress of grievances are in the words of Governor McCrory an “unlawful assembly”. Apparently “no law” in the 1st Amendment doesn’t really mean “no law” to the governor.
Yeah, and if the Republicans DO win the WH anytime soon, and both houses of Congress, what’s happening in NC will be used as a roadmap for the country.
I lived in NC from early in 2000, until late in 2008, and loved that state a lot.
But is seems like, when I volunteered for the Obama campaign, I could sense a gathering wrath in the older, more rural, white people.
I was kind of used to it, because for several years, I was an anti-war, anti-torture, and anti-rendition, activist and organizer in Fayetteville, home of Fort Bragg.
I see that I left before the rural Cracker poo-poo hit the ventilating blades, in 2010 and 2012.
Best of luck to you and the good folks of NC!!!
It’s not as much the rural cracker poo-poo as the self-satisfied smug suburbanites in ring suburbs of major cities, especially Charlotte. And then of course, there are the conservative, religious, white military in Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Lejeune, and spillover from Norfolk in the northeast counties. The rural cracker poo-poo could not take the entire legislature without these folks.
But the legislature is no longer representing these people; it’s totally representing Art Pope and ALEC. Which means that the government processes cannot at the moment be handled through ordinary processes defined by state law. The legislature, governor, and courts have shut popular means of control.
This is why I would like to see progressives spend more energy organizing to retake state legislatures and less on presidential politics. 2010 and its aftermath should have shown us all how important that is. And that naturally leads on in time to having a more progressive Dem caucus when the Dems retake the House. An Obama or Clinton type would suddenly look a whole lot better in combination with a Congress that was pushing them leftward instead of rightward.
If only Bernie Sanders were ten years younger….and a Democrat. I respect him more than any other US senator.
I love Bernie. Would love to sit down with him and talk. We’d agree about many things. But I don’t see him as someone who would be effective as president.
Only because they would not sit down with him. Republicans have a serious issue with negotiation.
How about Russ Feingold? What has he been up to lately? I want a true progressive.
Trying to achieve progressive goals from the top (White House) down is never going to work. The right tried that with Goldwater. After that debacle, they realized they were going to need years of painstaking bottom-up movement building. They committed to that effort and were ultimately all too successful. It would behoove progressives to learn from that history.
Remember when Bill Clinton and the six other guys running for the Democratic nomination were referred to as the 7 Dwarfs? To say the Democrats have no bench is idiotic. It was said that Hillary had everything locked up in “08 until she ran into the phenomenon that is Barack Obama. Who’s to say who will emerge this time out.
For what it’s worth, I’m not sure Hillary is necessarily our strongest candidate. I don’t see myself supporting her in the primaries but I will get 100% behind her if she’s nominated. Will knock on doors for her and donate money to her campaign because politics isn’t about perfection; it’s about advancing the ball.
Agree with the gist of your post, but to pick a nit the “7 dwarves” phrase actually applied to the 1988 Democratic field did not include Bill Clinton.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1988
The terms was first used in “88 (“Gary Hart and the Seven Dwarfs.”) It was reprized in “92.
Here’s a quote from an article on Clinton: “The contenders for the Democratic nomination were dubbed The Seven Dwarfs, but one of them would eventually stand out — a man with a powerful, seductive mix of engaged intellect, lively libido and mendacious charm.”
Here’s a link to the article:
http://blog.seattlepi.com/davidhorsey/2011/12/28/bill-clinton-and-the-distractions-of-the-90s/
No, the term wasn’t “Gary Hart and the 7 Dwarfs” but “Snow White and the 7 Dwarfs” — referring to the candidacy of Rep Pat Schroeder and a supposedly weak field of male candidates (but probably just some media idiot’s cute idea of denigrating the notion of a woman running for president, and the rest of the Dem field was brought down in a twofer).
And I don’t recall the term being reprised by the MSM in 92. Do you have a cite from other than a somewhat dubious Clinton faux-scandal-obsessed cartoonist?
I remember it in ’92. It was short lived, but it was used.
Democrats have no bench in the sense that there are not a whole lot of young candidates positioned in the House and governorships that are in potential line for future Senatorial and Presidential races.
Looking a future opponent of Richard Burr, I see no one in North Carolina who could take on Burr statewide. I see no candidate likely to challenge McCrory in 2016.
The Democratic Party is burdened with too many long term incumbents and no new geographic turf taken.
No new turf? Virginia? New Hampshire? Your state? Ohio? Iowa?
We’re talking bench here, not Presidential vote. And over the past 30 years in North Carolina and Virginia, Democrats have lost ground in having a strong bench and that is by losing turf. New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa? I don’t know what sort of bench Democrats have in those states. Wisconsin and Michigan have certainly lost ground.
If Hillary isn’t running, why am I being bombarded daily, sometimes twice daily, with requests for campaign donations?
Don’t know if I’ll even participate in 2016. Obama turned out to be a black Bush and I fear Hillary will just be a female Obama. The Corporations rule. I’m with Arthur Gilroy on that.
I could not disagree more. Obama may not be the guy you imagined but he did a great deal to advance the ball. We may be collecting phone records but we’re not doing torture. I see a guy who has accomplished so much against a background of total opposition. Not just the ACA which, while far from perfect, is a huge step forward. So many things. For example, would we be where we are on marriage equity under a President McCain, the guy who railed against ending DADT? When Obama came out for gay marriage, huge numbers of African-Americans opened their minds and hearts to it.
Here’s a link to a year-old article on Obama’s top 50 accomplishments:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035
755.php
And phone records have not been protected by the 4th Amendment for decades.
One could make a case that the Supreme Court ruled incorrectly in 1976 and 1979 when they determined that bank and phone records are not protected because consumers voluntarily hand that information over to 3rd parties, but it is disingenuous to make the claim that the Obama administration is violating the 4th amendment or doing something extraordinary.
Hey, remember when Bush competently handled a natural disaster? Or when he supported gay rights at the federal level? Obama really is just like Bush! Thanks for opening my eyes!
I’m with Voice: I thought Barack Obama was going to be my number one soul brother, but it turns out he’s just like my dad!
Soooooo disappointed.
Surprised to hear this coming from you. I gathered that you were pretty supportive of everything that Obama has ever done in his life. At one point you accused me of being a tr0ll for voicing disappointment that he has largely ignored the Blck community while placing illegals at the top of his priority list.
It’s called satire, Drawteel. Sometimes it doesn’t translate over the Internet, but I could hear joe’s sarcastic delivery from here.
Yes the corporations rule. That’s why staying engaged is so important. We need a liberal in the primaries to make the Democrats understand the power we have. Nominate a liberal and we cut the BS its the people against the corporations and their political connections. Citizens United or not one vote is still one vote!
Do not be discouraged and remember we have 2014 before 2016. Its crucial. Koch boys like to buy midterms.
Nominate a Liberal and the press will crucify him with made up crap like the Dean Scream.
Its discouraging I agree.
Good God, if you can’t see any difference between Obama and Bush, why do you even bother? A couple of other commenters have already pointed out some of the obvious points, but there’s plenty more. If Obama was a black Bush, for instance, we’d now have two more frothing wingnuts on the Supreme Court. As soon as they had five votes to overturn Roe v. Wade, reproductive rights would be history.
You wackos really are child-like. No wonder no one takes you crack-pots seriously.
Bush invaded Iraq – Obama withdrew from Iraq
= Both sides!!
Bush demonized gays - Obama repealed DADT and DOMA =
Both sides!!
Bush tanked the economy – Obama rescued the Auto industry
= Both sides!!
Bush was a toxic polluter - Obama is regulating coal =
Both sides!!
Bush appointed Roberts & Alito – Obama appointed Sotomayor and Kagan
= Both sides!!
Bush killed FEMA (Katrina) - Obama revived FEMA (Sandy/Irene/Tornadoes) =
Both sides!!
Bush opposed women’s rights — Obama supports choice and contraception
= Both sides!!
Bush increased nuclear arms -- Obama reduced nuclear arms =
Both sides!!
Keep fuckin that chicken, losers.
YOU wackos really are child-like.
Obama invaded Afghanistan
Obama keeps bringing back Bush administrators instead of appointing Democrats, most recently for FBI Director.
Obama kept funneling TARP money into the too big to fail banks so the nine figure bonuses could continue. Obama doesn’t have any plan at all for jobs except to funnel money into Mafia controlled road projects, repaving the same roads over and over. Obama supports bringing in unlimited H1-B’s to destroy the jobs of American citizens. Obama keeps up the attacks on civil servants, freezing pay and furloughing civil servants instead of contractors. Obama wants to cut Social Security with Chained CPI and means tests. Hust like Cheney, Obama has held secret meetings with Big Pharma. Even Bush didn’t propose that. Then, of course, there is the whole NSA contracting scandal where he has set private companies, including the Carlyle group, loose to spy on every phone call and e-mail in America, going way beyond anything Bush did. And how do you know the torture at Guantanamo has ended?
Obama is part of the elite that are pushing blue collar faces into the mud. He just doesn’t give a damn about unemployment as long as he can keep fudging the figures. Now he is stopping the reporting of mass lay-offs.
I support gay rights. I support abortion rights. But I’m not gay and we are way to old to need abortions. Those issues don’t affect us personally. The financial issues do. And there Obama stands squarely with Bush, against unions, and for bankers. You talk of DOMA, how long has it been since you heard about EFCA?
Keep fuckin that chicken, loser.
“I support gay rights. I support abortion rights. But I’m not gay and we are way to old to need abortions.”
Quoted without additional comment.
Sorry for the misspelling of “too”.
Not to mention “Obama invaded Afghanistan.” I didn’t realize he was President in 2001.
BooMan, Mitch Daniels has lost his “moderate” credentials. He reversed himself from previous explicit statements and allowed Indiana to push through Right-To-Work and heinous anti-choice laws.
Besides, he’s got W. Bush stink all over him, having been the Budget Director when W. presided over the loss of the Clinton budget surpluses.
I could see supporting Biden, Patrick, Omalley but I would stay home before I voted for Cuomo and I would have to hold my nose to vote for Hillary. I agree that Cuomo is formidable and could raise the funds etc. But Clinton would need to excite the base of the party and I’m not so sure that African Americans would come out in droves to support her. Maybe by election time we will have forgotten the race baiting and nasty things that she and her husband tried during the primaries. I for one have not forgotten.
I’m surprised nobody’s mentioned Dean yet, for good or ill. With Hillary in the primary he’d probably fare only a little better than a typical Kucinich run. But with her out? He might find a reason to throw his hat in the ring.
Also, how many more years will it be before Debbie Wasserman Schultz is considered presidential timber? She seems to have the basic charisma/quick intellect needed for a campaign, although sometimes she looks a little weird on TV.
I know people are thinking about O’Malley, but do you think Patrick looks that good?
It would be useful to have another go with a non-white candidate, but isn’t there a plausible female non-white candidate?
Among females I like Nancy Pelosi more than Hillary.
But still, a non-white female would make two useful points and not just one.
I don’t think I’m quite ready for the Democrats to return to a white male.
Too quick a return and Obama looks too much like an exception and a fluke.
And surely it is time for a woman?
Dems are going to be reluctant to nominate two non whites in a row. Even many AAs will understand the public may need some more time to digest the historic Obama presidency, and that going back to the same well so soon (Patrick) may not be in their best interests.
The obvious next viable opening is for a white female. Hillary, or Gillibrand, Klobuchar or Warren if HRC decides to sit it out.
I think we do non white female after the w female is elected plus perhaps a decent interval for more body politic digesting. Provided of course a viable nwf comes along in the upcoming period.
I think this focus on race and gender is a HUGE mistake. Clarence Thomas is an example that a Black snake will bite as well as a white one. This is feel good politics at it’s worst. All candidates should be judged on ther qualifications, track record and commitment to do the work of the people that have elected them.
39 comments and no love for Elizabeth Warren?
Wow.
You guys really do have ADHD.