The Israeli cabinet has acquiesced to an American demand (on the Palestinians’ behalf) that they show good faith by releasing 104 prisoners who are serving life sentences for alleged acts of terror committed prior to the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. These prisoners have all served at least 20 years in prison. This is an unusual concession from the Israelis because they are not guaranteed to get anything in return.
The renewed peace talks are scheduled to last nine months, and John Kerry is pursuing a new strategy that seems smart to me:
Previous attempts to resolve the decades-old conflict had sought to ward off deadlock and the risk of knock-on violence by tackling easier disputes first and deferring the most emotional ones like the fate of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
This time “all of the issues that are at the core of a permanent accord will be negotiated simultaneously”, Silvan Shalom, a member of Prime Minister Binyamin Netayahu’s cabinet and rightist Likud party, told Army Radio.
Secretary Kerry hopes to give more leeway to the negotiators to make concessions by keeping the issues under discussion secret, which will make it harder for interest groups to organize against a settlement.
Key to success is convincing the Israelis that the status quo will not hold anymore. The European Union has assisted in this by announcing that they will give no more grant money to any Israeli institution operating in the Occupied Territories and will soon begin labeling the settlers’ exports so that consumers can avoid their foodstuffs. This followed the United Nations granting de facto recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state last November. The main Palestinian concession to the Israelis right now is that they will delay seeking more complete recognition at the United Nations.
Forcing the Israelis to make a big concession upfront will make it harder for them to walk away from talks. There’s another feature to these talks, too, that could help but might hurt. The leadership on both sides has promised to submit any final agreement to a referendum of the people. This should make it easier to make concessions since the final responsibility will be dispersed to the people instead of resting on the heads of a few negotiators. On the other hand, the people could reject the agreement. I expect to see a lot of polling in the coming months that is intended to show what the people on either side will never accept. That will be part of the negotiating process.
I am never an optimist on this topic, but it’s hard to see how Israel can really afford to leave the United States empty-handed this time around and think that everything will be okay.
Things get started tonight with a working dinner at the State Department including Israel’s justice minister Tzipi Livni and special envoy Isaac Molho, and Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Mohammed Shtayyeh.
