Chris Frates explains that the leadership of the House Republicans wants to delay voting on (passing) immigration reform until after the August recess because members don’t want to get screamed at during their town hall meetings back home.
That’s part of it. But, more importantly, the later the Republicans act, the harder it will be for primary challengers to get organized and raise money. They are probably looking for a sweet spot that diminishes the likelihood of a viable challenge but still leaves enough time for strong emotions to fade. In other words, the fall instead of the spring.
The problem, however, is that Boehner and his leadership are trying to roll their own caucus, and they are doing it in plain sight. They want immigration reform because they do not believe that the Republicans can field a viable presidential candidate in 2016 without it. But the House rank-and-file doesn’t give a shit because they don’t like brown people. They are also justifiably paranoid because their leadership is looking to screw them.
To be fair, many are acting like this, not because they don’t like brown people, but because their constituents don’t like brown people.
Sure, but polls show that Republicans support a path to citizenship.
Do they support it as strongly as the opponents?
To make my own position clear, I support a path to citizenship and not outright amnesty, but I think that 13 years is a cruel hoax. Most people that I’ve talked to, including Republicans, with the exception of the “Machine gun them at the border” crowd, think two to five years is long enough. Most oppose increasing STEM visas. A few buy the “Americans don’t want to study engineering” B.S. I’ve got a lopsided sample because I mostly talk to older mechanics and technicians who know their own kids would like to be (or are) engineers.
In my experience, people who oppose stuff tend to be more passionate than people who support stuff.
My experience also. Hate is stronger than Love.
Anyone who has a kid in college has got to be looking at the H-1B and green card thing, and wonder “What the fuck??” Admittedly, there is huge propaganda on this, but the arguments are TOTAL bullshit.
Take the “Every H-1B creates 2 other jobs”, to which the answer is “which are then given to more H-1Bs”. THis is such moronic crap that I cannot believe ANYONE falls for it.
Another one is “H-1Bs take the bad jobs, leaving the good jobs for Americans”. Again, total crap. The mean salary there is 50-70K. I know a lot of college kids that would take those.
The STEM/IT industry has been DESTROYED by H-1Bs. The entire Ph.D. sector is VASTLY overpopulated with highly qualified Americans. We do not need a vast new class of techno-coolies. The bill is a total non-starter from that standpoint.
On the other end, we have a lot of low-skilled unemployed Americans. They want jobs too.
There are few classes of jobs that I see a need in. These are agricultural only. Nothing else. Hotel maids? Plenty folks would do that? Construction? These are good jobs, that I know a lot of Americans want to do. Landscape? These jobs used to be done by teens, until they got taken over by illegals. Summer jobs for US teens? J-1 visas, 500,000 per year, take a LOT of these jobs. We have J-1 lifeguards running red cross classes. Wonder if the parents think “Gee, if my kid passes the lifeguard test, and they fill all the jobs with lifeguards from Bulgaria, where is my kid going to work? Ah, maybe Bulgaria.”
There is a lot of crap in the cheap-ass visa system, and mostly it ends up costing Americans jobs.
“We do not need a vast new class of techno-coolies.”
Stay classy.
AGREED
The cruel hoax is the impact of unskilled illegal immigrant labor on unemployed American workers. It’s not that the Democrats are in love with Brown people, they see illegals as an election strategy. Nothing more.
They have chosen the latinos over the blacks. Blacks are beginning to notice.
Why do they do town halls? Seems high-risk, low-reward.
Serious question: what would happen if they didn’t do town halls? Would lots of people get upset because the Congresscritters aren’t listening to their constituents? Enough to affect elections?
I don’t think most people would even notice. I’m plugged into my Congressman and I rarely know when he’s in town and doing events until after he leaves. I don’t know if most people even know that their Congressperson is doing these types of events at all.
I think you’re probably right that most constituents are oblivious to the activities of their members of Congress. So it makes me wonder why they bother. Maybe it’s for the benefit of the really plugged in people who will attend the town halls and then start telling the other low-information people in the district what happened.
But if your Congresscritter just held no town halls at all? I honestly don’t know what would happen.
At this point, I don’t see the Republicans gaining much benefit in 2016 from passing immigration reform. Opposing it has become a major litmus test for the activist base, which means that Republican candidates are going to have to run from the bill during the primaries if it passes. By the time the Republican Convention rolls around, they’ll have so thoroughly alienated the voters they were trying to attract by supporting the bill that the actual fact of the bill’s passage will be largely irrelevant.
Approaching the matter from a purely political standpoint, if I were in their shoes I’d kill it in the House.
I disagree. I think they have to pass something substantial if they want to have any shot at remaining a national party. If they don’t appeal to Latinos, their electoral possibilities get narrower and narrower and narrower until there’s no possible path to victory at the presidential level. In the Senate, there’s no gerrymandering so each candidate has to appeal to the entirety of the state. States are only getting more brown.
If you read Spanish, there’s an interesting column here by Jorge Ramos (top newscaster at Univision).
And:
He also cites an interesting poll number: 57% of Latinos were unsatisfied with the verdict in the Zimmerman trial, even though Zimmerman is Latino himself.
The issue of immigration is a big deal to those on the right.
I remember during George W Bush’s second term, I was visiting my conservative inlaws, and I was pleasantly surprised to discover they were expressing disappointment in Bush’s second term. What could it be, I wondered. The disaster of the Iraq war? The fact that by then it was clear that the causus bell was a lie? The corporate scandals? The economy? No, it was none of that. They were disappointed because he was pushing immigration reform.
As much as I dislike Bush as a President, I have to admit at least in public he discouraged demonizing minority ethnic and religious groups, and his political machine seemed to understand that the Republican party needed more than white voters to thrive in the long run. George Bush would be considered too liberal if he tried to become the Republican presidential nominee today.
OT: Manning trial. NOT GUILTY on aiding the enemy charge.
I was wrong about it being that much of a kangaroo court. Still up to 154 years in charges against Manning minus the days for being illegally held in confinement at Quantico (judge already ruled on that one).
Guilty of wantonly caused to be published on the Internet
Bradley Manning found guilty of 19 counts, 4 of which were his lesser included pleas
Spec 4, Charge II Iraq War Logs Database 641 GUILTY (10 years MAX)
Spec 3, Charge II CIA Red Cell Memo 793(e) GUILTY #Manning (10 years MAX)
Spec II, Charge II Guilty to his LIO plea for 793(e) Collateral Murder
Spec 5, Charge II Iraq War Logs Espionage 793(e) GUILTY (10 years)
Spec 6, Charge II Afghan War Diray Database 641 GUILTY (10 years)
Spec 7, Charge II Afghan War Diary Espionage 793(e) GUILTY #Manning (10 Years MAX)
Spec 8, Charge II GTMO Files Database 641 GUILTY #Manning (10 Years MAX)
Spec 9, Charge II GTMO File 793(e) Espionage GUILTY #Manning (10 Years MAX)
Looks like life in prison for Bradley Manning but NYT off hook for “aiding the enemy”.
He should’ve just committed war crimes.
Act too soon, and his caucus will catch hell during the August recess. The last thing House Republicans want to do at their little town hall gatherings is answer a lot of hostile questions from the extreme wing of their base. They also have a crying need to protect their phony baloney jobs, and passing an immigration bill is a sure ticket to getting a primary challenge from the tea baggers.
Act too late, and they run the risk of looking obstructionist on an issue that a lot of people would like to see some movement or resolution on, and they lose whatever benefit they might get during the general election campaign because they dragged their feet.
It’s distressing to me to see the House Republicans having to flounder like this. Now where’d I put that anchor?
This sort of thing keeps up, and the Republicans might just lose control of the House despite their heroic efforts to gerrymander so many “safe” seats.