With some initial polling showing Arkansas incumbent Senator Mark Pryor comfortably ahead in his reelection race, I guess it is time to take a very preliminary look at the 2014 Senate outlook. It’s a bad year for the Democrats both because they have to defend more seats and because they are defending several in red states while having two opportunities (New Jersey and Maine) to pick up seats in blue states.

Currently, there are 52 Democrats plus two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine) who caucus with the Democrats, and there are 46 Republicans. Because the vice-president breaks ties in the Senate, the Republicans need 51 seats (a net gain of five) to win control of the chamber. However, there will be a special election this fall in New Jersey in which the Democrats (most likely, Newark Mayor Cory Booker) are highly favored. So, it’s most likely a net gain of six seats that the Republicans will need to wrest control of the upper chamber from Harry Reid.

To do an analysis, it’s best to start with the easiest calls. Which seats are unlikely to change hands in terms of party control?

SAFE

Alabama- Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is a sub-mental racist, but he won last time with 63% of the vote and no one has yet emerged to challenge him. I see no signs that he is even remotely vulnerable.

Colorado- Sen. Mark Udall (D) won his freshman contest with only 53% of the vote, but the Dems are ascendant in Colorado and no strong contenders have emerged to challenge him.

Delaware- Sen. Chris Coons (D) took over Joe Biden’s seat and has acquitted himself very well. His committee assignments on Appropriations, Budget, Foreign Relations, and Judiciary speak for themselves. He’s a man on the rise.

Hawai’i (special election, Class III)- Governor Neil Abercrombie disregarded Sen. Daniel Inouye’s dying wish that he be replaced by Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and appointed his Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz instead. Rep. Hanabusa is going to challenge Sen. Schatz in a primary, and she may well win. But, either way, the seat is unlikely to fall into the Republicans’ hands.

Idaho- Sen. Jim Risch (R) has one of the most conservative voting records in Congress, but the Idaho voters like it that way. He doesn’t have much clout in the Senate and doesn’t have any plum committee assignments. He tends to stay out of the headlines, but that also means that he doesn’t arouse much opposition. Plus, the Democrats have no bench.

Illinois- Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) will serve as long as he wants to serve. The real question is whether or not he would be able to beat Chuck Schumer in any effort to replace Harry Reid as Majority Leader.

Kansas- Pat Roberts (R) is another fairly anonymous senator, but with positions on the Finance and Rules committees, it’s clear that the Republican leadership values his contributions. He won his last race with 60% of the vote, and he really has little to worry about except his age (he’ll be 78 on Election Day in 2014). I suppose a primary challenger could emerge but the seat is solidly red.

Massachusetts- Sen. Ed Markey just won this seat in a special election, and he’ll hold it.

Minnesota- It may seem strange to say it considering that Sen. Al Franken (D) only won this seat with 42% of the vote, and after a lengthy recount, but Sen. Franken has done nothing to endanger his reelection and he currently faces no serious opposition.

Mississippi- Thad Cochran (R) has been in the Senate since 1979, and he can stay as long as he wants. If he retires, which he might, it’s unlikely but not impossible that the Democrats could pry the seat away. First, they’d need a candidate.

New Hampshire- Popular ex-governor Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) seems established in the seat and currently faces no serious opposition.

New Mexico- Sen. Tom Udall (D) looks totally unbeatable and New Mexico, with its massive Latino population, is trending strongly against the Republicans.

Oklahoma- Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) will turn 80 a few days after the November 2014 elections, so retirement is a real possibility. But Oklahoma could be the reddest state in the country right now. Unless someone from the Boren family runs on the Democratic side, this seat seems safe for the GOP.

Oregon- Sen. Jeff Merkley won a tight race in 2008, but he’s established himself nicely in the Senate with slots on Appropriations, Banking, Budget, and Environment. Oregon voters are pleased.

Rhode Island- With the pending retirement of Carl Levin (D) of Michigan, Sen. Jack Reed (D) is poised to become the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and one of the most powerful members of Congress. The former paratrooper and strong liberal is not going anywhere.

Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) gave up a position in the leadership to have more freedom of action. It seems to me like he isn’t enjoying his time in the Senate too much lately, but I haven’t heard any retirement rumors. He can have six more years if he wants them, but I’m not confident that he does. On the other hand, Tennessee has been trending strongly red in recents years and a Democrat will struggle to win even an open seat there.

Texas- Sen. John Cornyn (R) has risen to the number two slot in the Republican Senate leadership and serves as Minority Whip. On the other hand, he only won a mediocre 55% of the vote in 2008, and demographics are beginning to catch up to the Republicans in Texas. Still, until a well-financed opponent emerges, I am keeping this in the safe category.

Virginia- Sen. Mark Warner (D) could be the safest Democrat in the country. But that’s a testament to his personal popularity, not his purple state. I doubt any serious Republican will waste their time challenging him. But does he want to serve another term in the gridlocked Senate?

Wyoming- Sen. Mike Enzi (R) is a low-profile conservative workhorse who is facing an unexpected primary challenge from Liz Cheney. If it gets bloody enough, I suppose a strong Democrat could win here. Alan Simpson predicted that this could happen. I am not so sure.

Now let’s talk about seats that could more plausibly change hands.

COMPETITIVE

Alaska- Sen. Mark Begich (D) won election with 48% against a scandal-plauged Ted Stevens. On paper, he’s one of the most vulnerable members of the Senate. But Alaskans value seniority more than the people of any state except maybe Hawai’i. As you might expect, the Democrats sought to protect Begich with a seat on Appropriations, and it’s a strategy that is likely to work. He hasn’t attracted a strong opponent, as of yet, although Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has formed an exploratory committee, would provide a challenge.

Arkansas- Sen. Mark Pryor (D), as I mentioned at the top, is looking good in early polling against Rep. Tom Cotton. But this is an increasingly red state that is hostile to the Obama administration, and Cotton is considered a top pick-up. This is a prime opportunity for the Republicans.

Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is retiring and the Republican primary field to replace him is a frightening assemblage of wingnuts and mouth-breathers that is so extreme that they could easily produce a nominee too radical to beat the Democrats’ candidate, Michelle Nunn. Ms. Nunn is the daughter of popular ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, who is most famous for working with Dick Lugar on Soviet nuclear disarmament issues. Herman Cain aside, Ms. Nunn can count on the near-universal support of black Georgians, so she doesn’t have to cut too deeply into the white vote to win. This could be an even better pick-up opportunity than Kentucky.

Iowa- Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, unfortunately, but the Democrats have lined up Rep. Bruce Braley (D) as his replacement. So far, the Republicans have produced no one formidable to contest him, but that could change. This modestly blue state keeps comfortably reelecting Chuck Grassley and has a Republican governor, so I can’t call this a safe retention for the Dems. But it’s looks good.

Kentucky- This is the big one. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is polling terribly in his home state and he has a nasty primary challenge. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is a serious threat. Don’t believe me? Watch this:

Now you are convinced. This is the Democrats’ best pick up opportunity right now.

Louisiana- In 2008, Mary Landrieu (D) somehow managed to win election in a post-Katrina presidential-year election. How can you bet against her? But no Democrat can be confident of winning a state-wide election in Louisiana anymore. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) has a real shot here.

Maine- Maine voters like moderates and independents, and Sen. Susan Collins (R) fits the bill. She thumped (61%-39%) a very qualified Rep. Tom Allen (D) in the 2008 election, even as Obama was easily carrying her state. Yet, her colleague Sen. Olympia Snowe grew weary of Republican bullying and partisan gridlock and retired. Could Sen. Collins feel similarly? It won’t be easy to beat Collins if she runs, but it is a blue state.

Michigan- Sen. Carl Levin (D) is retiring and the nomination will probably go to Rep. Gary Peters, who should be heavily favored to retain the seat for the Democrats. But, it’s early, and Rep. Dave Camp is considering getting in the race, which could make it competitive.

Montana- Powerful Finance chairman Sen. Max Baucus (D) is retiring. So far, no strong candidates have emerged on either side. Montana is a red state that likes to elect Democrats to state-wide office. How can we know how it will shake out until we have some candidates to look at? On paper, this is a prime pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.

Nebraska- This is a similar situation to Montana. Sen. Mike Johanns (R) is sick of the Senate after only one term. His retirement creates an open seat, but it’s a red state that is more reluctant than Montana to consider Democrats. Former State Treasurer Shane Osborn (R) is running and should be considered the early favorite to retain this seat for the Republicans.

New Jersey- This seat is currently held by the Republicans, but the Democrats are favored to win it back this November. Most likely the next senator from New Jersey will be Newark mayor Cory Booker, although Reps. Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are strong candidates who are running for the nomination. If the Dems don’t own this seat after the November 2014 elections, we’re going to have bigger problems.

North Carolina- The Tarheel State is experiencing a Republican revolution at the moment, but that doesn’t mean it is popular. Sen. Kay Hagan (D) won election in 2008 with 53% of the vote. She’s low-key, which is good because she doesn’t create enemies. Her position on the Banking Committee is important to Charlotte and her position on the Armed Services Committee helps her with the big military population. So far, she faces only a fringe Tea Party challenger. But we can’t call her safe, yet.

South Carolina- Ah, yes, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). He just got a major headache when Nancy Mace announced that she would challenge him in a primary. Ms. Mace is the first-ever female graduate of The Citadel. Sen. Graham arouses a lot of controversy in Republican circles and a large percentage of South Carolina Republicans think he is not conservative enough. His push for immigration reform is a big vulnerability. I am confident that this primary will be so bruising that Graham will not be able to count on many of Mace’s voters in the general election. A strong Democratic candidate could conceivably defeat a wounded Graham.

South Carolina (Special, Class III)- When Sen. Jim DeMint retired unexpectedly to head the Heritage Foundation, Gov. Nikki Haley tapped Rep. Tim Scott as his temporary replacement. Sen. Scott is currently the only black member of the Senate, but his politics are strictly Tea Party. Who can divine the inner workings of the Republicans’ mind in South Carolina. How many white conservatives will vote against Scott because he’s black? How many moderate conservatives will vote against him because he’s crazy? The Democrats have two tough, but doable, races to challenge in the Palmetto State. They just need candidates.

South Dakota- Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is retiring and Governor Mike Rounds (R) is going to take his seat. Any other outcome will shock me. Still, Rick Weiland is running and he deserves support. This is the Republicans best pick-up opportunity.

West Virginia- Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) is retiring and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is running for his seat. She is the heavy favorite at the moment, but West Virginians haven’t had a Republican senator in memory. They almost never elect Republicans to statewide office. Still, the state is very conservative and the Democrats haven’t recruited anyone.

BOTTOM LINE
Here’s how I call them, with party control changes bolded:

LEAN DEM: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina

LEAN GOP: Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Carolina (Class III), South Dakota, West Virginia

TOSS-UP: Kentucky, Georgia, Montana

What does this mean? It means that the Democrats will pick up one seat (New Jersey) and lose two seats (South Dakota and West Virginia), with Kentucky, Georgia, and Montana too close to call.

We should go into election night with a 55-45 advantage (having picked up the New Jersey seat). Quite likely, we will end the night with a 53-47 advantage, having retained New Jersey but lost South Dakota and West Virginia. If the GOP adds Montana, we will be down to 52-48. If we save Montana and win either (but not both) Kentucky and Georgia, we will be where we are now (54-46). If we hold Montana and win both Kentucky and Georgia then we’ll be where we started (55-45).

To have a great night, we need to figure out a way to steal a seat in Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina (two available) or Nebraska.

In any case, somewhere between 52-48 and 55-45 is what I expect, although things could turn either way to make the margins bigger.