I actually read the whole thing and I am totally sold. Build it. Build the Hyperloop. If we can have this thing for a mere $7 billion, we have to do it. But what would it mean if we could travel from Los Angeles to San Francisco in 35 minutes for 20 bucks?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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Did you grasp all the science? I thought it was pretty dense (although this is just an abstract I guess).
If it’s for real, great. But reports sounded skeptical today. That said, people shouldn’t immediately rag on the flaws in this. We should be inspired by the boldness of the Tesla team’s vision and root for their success, which would benefit us all.
Some New Deal-liberal part of me would like to see Jerry Brown’s HSR plan work out. It’s romantic to imagine the government doing huge, successful infrastructure projects like the Hoover Dam once again. But HSR is a huge mess even though they haven’t even built any of it yet. It’s going to be enormously expensive for California taxpayers. And I don’t have to wait 30 friggin’ years.
So, go for it, Tesla nerds.
Well, no, I didn’t grasp all of the science, obviously.
But, for proof of concept, I think they succeeded. A scale model will have to be tested, and their pricing could be optimistic. But at less than one-tenth the price of HSR, they have plenty of wiggle-room.
The linear engines are so cool. And they can take you to 760 mph, and do it without exposing you to more than half a g?
So much of it is pure genius. Building most of it on the median of I-5? Generating more power (solar) than they actually need? Levitating it with air bearing skis and a compressor fan? Using the compressor and a water tank to cool the capsules?
It is like something out of Disney’s Tomorrowland, isn’t it. Actually looks a lot like his monorails.
If even half of these ideas worked, it would revolutionize human transportation.
It was interesting to read the limitations he put on it. That it would only make sense for a certain distance of travel, neither too short or too long.
If I could go to Boston in 15 minutes for 20 bucks, I’d never drive there and neither would anyone else. And to think that I could do it and it would actually increase the (clean) energy supply?
Well, limits on this particular design, right? Because I believe he also said that at least the tech potentially exists that could do LA-NY distances at hyperspeeds. But it may not be economically feasible compared to flying.
Even so, vast majorities of us now live in the big metropolian corridors now. I think it’s like 70-80% of the population. What’s really interesting to me is how this could effect housing patterns. You might see a lot of people move out to more rural areas and then use the hyperloop to get to and from work. For folks who aren’t that into city life, why spend half your income on rent if you could do a 15 minute loop from Philly to your farm in Gettysburg?
Given the high speeds this thing would go at, though, I’m guessing it wouldn’t be able to make many stops, at least initially. So maybe it’s really more of a city-to-city thing. Still amazing but I don’t know how much it would decrease everyday vehicle traffic so much as supplement and in some cases replace long-distance highway/flight traffic.
I guess the biggest limitation is that you need to have a lot of passengers to make it work financially. But you can’t really predict how people would behave. I mean, if I could get from L.A. to San Fran quicker and more reliably than I could get into Philly from my suburb, then suddenly my weekend options expand massively. If I like a band that is playing in Boston, I might go see them rather than drive into Philly. So, it would change people’s behavior so much that it’s hard to predict what would be viable. It would do to travel what the internet did to the postal service.
I love cool technology and this was fun to read. The science isn’t the main problem with Musk’s napkin sketch plan. The cost of land and rights of way for the current CA HSR is over 11 billion. Musk needs to provide more detail on how he can magically get that down to 1 billion. And it takes a leap to believe that he has anticipated all costs. There is a decent article at the Atlantic on this:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/13/08/elon-musks-futuristical-napkin-drawing-of-a-mass
-transit-system/278608/
Also another problem is that he leaves out another interesting option – maglev trains. Not only do they use less energy to operate, they’re running now. That would be an important comparison due to some of the similarities with the hyperloop.
building on I-5 – you don’t have the land acquisition costs.
The problems with his rights of way costs are numerous. Technical details can involve calculations on fairly well known design goals/constraints. Musk’s estimates on some of the technical issues appears to be based on tangible, available technology. A vacuum pump today has certain measurable performance attributes.
ROW issues involve human interaction and political costs. It’s more unpredictable and his number is based more on optimistic assumptions than measured facts.
Here is some criticism of Musk’s estimates:
http://stopandmove.blogspot.com/2013/08/hyperloop-proposal-bad-joke-or-attempt.html
by the way, that link overreaches in some of the criticism but it does zero in on some of the details worth focusing on.
For example, Musk’s design does not extend to downtown LA like the HSR does. That is where a lot of rights of way costs come into play.
Musk appears to say he is going to get across the SF bay with a cost of a $175 million tunnel (3.5 miles at $50 million/mile). Where is he getting that from? And what are the basic dimensions of the tunnel?
He is an engineer. He has detailed info on certain components but major cost assumptions associated with routing, land and tube construction are not documented at all.
I found a 2002 study that estimates $2-3 billion for a twin BART tunnel to be bored under the SF bay. That’s 14X Musk’s apparent estimate (his is presumably in 2013 dollars). Musk doesn’t address the need for a gallery, electrical or drainage in his tunneling under that bay. So it’s very vague as to what diameter tunnel is needed for the tube.
Here’s the PDF:
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/library/bay_crossing/Draft_Cost_Report/Cost_Report_Rev.pdf
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Perhaps a warning? On your link opening large pdf file – 19Mb!
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From discussion at ET in 2010 … feasibility, true costs and upkeep/safety.
Republicans: we can’t build it, because it won’t increase global warming. Which doesn’t exist.
The point of CA-HSR, in comparison, is not simply to facilitate travel from SF to LA. Hyperloop is two stations at terminus only with the present concept. A project that could serve riders via station-station travel connecting the Bay Area, the Central Valley, and LA would be much more costly.
Yes, and I applaud the HSR project for its broader connective vision. But it’s looking more and more that HSR will be politically and economically impossible. The worst kind of liberal boondoggle. All the more strange that Jerry Brown of all guvs has staked his political legacy to it.
If HSR is finally installed in CA, it will revolutionaize the state. One of California’s persistent problems is the backwater that is the central valley and the eastern half of the state. If Fresno and Sacramento could be hooked into LA and the Bay Area, the economy in the east could diversify and improve. It’s a perfectly good idea, even at a high price tag, and will pay dividends for generations.
The real problem with the current plan is the need to build this stupid test track instead of just getting down to business and hooking fresno straight to LA, or LA straight to SF. The test track is silly, and will make the project an easy target for critics. It’s not like nobody knows how to build hs rail.
Exactly. I’m not sure this would help commuters at all, merely would-be air passengers at this point.
But it’s still a great idea. And if you commute from SF to LA, well then. There you go.
Good commentary from High Speed Rail Blog:
http://www.cahsrblog.com/2013/08/hyping-the-hyperloop/
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I prefer a wealthy nation like the Saudis to take the lead and prove its feasibility on a route Jeddah-Riyadh (550 miles).
The wealthy nations are building plenty of skyscrapers like China and Emirates. China is forced to tackle the environmental
issues and are investing up to $500bnon clean air and energy. Greener path ahead.
Remember when the US used to be a wealthy nation? Before the Great Finincial Hoarding?
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It’s across the board upkeep of roads, trains and infrastructure. Funds have been lacking for decades, it’s a debt obscured by most Americans and has become a “normal.”
The difference can only be witnessed by traveling to a foreign nation. The Dutch are well off due to its large gas reserves at Slochteren. This summer two family members from the States came on a 14-day holiday. We put together a pretty busy schedule: 1 week in city centre Amsterdam and a week with us in The Hague, close to the North Sea beach. One adult and one teener experienced a culture shock how a modern society functions. A car was available to them, they never made use of it. They used public transportation within the metropolitan areas and between cities: Schiphol Int’l airport, Amsterdam, The Hague, Leiden, Rotterdam, Delft and Antwerp in Belgium. Locally in The Hague they rented two bikes for a week at a fee of €70 total. They were astonished how well the cities were kept clean, streets and roads with no potholes and we took them into Rotterdam harbor on a tour of 2.5 hours. We were able to reach about half of the distance in the world harbor before turning back.
More depressing for our visitors, the Amsterdam hamburger experience at a relative’s restaurant. Never before did they have such a tasty, large burger. In the Netherlands one can find many food markets and specialty shops with excellent food. They were more than just amazed.
Alas, this is a country that doesn’t even have the political will to invest in the sort of high speed rail that’s already existed (the shinkansen, or bullet train) in Japan for decades.
If the science proves out, I think you’ll see this in Europe and Asia a lot sooner than you’ll see it in the US. Denser populations, who are more accustomed to train-style transportation, and countries without an imbecilic right wing that reflexively opposes both science and public projects of all kinds.
The only cutting edge science that this country invests in significantly is in health care and the military. Not in that order, but for the same reason: it helps very big companies make huge profits. And in both cases, the benefits are rarely available to ordinary people for quite a while.
You’re forgetting about Jerry Brown and Google. Jerry Brown is committed enough to high speed rail that conservative hacks are attacking him for it, and if Google wants it the money will be there.
And of course it’s also important that the Republicans are dead in California, so they’re no longer able to interfere.
And that California’s economy is large enough that it can even contemplate taking on a project like this itself. There’s about 47 other states where that’s simply not true. Texas, New York, and maybe Florida are the only other three that could even feasibly contemplate it, and that’s if the cost comes down. FL and TX are run by reactionary morons and NY state doesn’t really have an obvious route – trains to Boston or DC make far more sense economically than the Albany-Buffalo corridor, but good luck trying to get three or four other states, either in New England or the Mid-Atlantic, organized in a regional consortium for something like that. But a Dallas/Houston or even a Dallas/Austin/San Antonio link, or a Tampa/Orlando/South Florida route, could work if their states weren’t run by lunatics who don’t believe in public investment in anything.
Sounds nice … but totally impractical in terms of actually building it. That’s why it’s still only theoretical even after a couple hundred years of engineering advancement. Those pneumatic tubes you used to see in the department stores in the 50’s, taking your sales slip up to Accounting, work because they are small scale, i.e. the effect of gravity can be overcome with small containers, in an evacuated tube, over short distances. The reality for larger masses is A LOT more difficult, and the implementation would be a HELLUVA lot more expensive than a couple billion.
That said, the technology is HERE, NOW, for TGV from one city center to another. France, of all countries, has done it. So why can’t we? Too soshulist, I guess.
(Why can’t WE have nice things, too??!!)
This being my field, the science was fairly easy to follow, as we’re his “calculations” with the diagrams. Before clicking the link, my first thought was “how is he going to decrease the air density such that you don’t develop too much drag?” And that’s still where I am. There was little to no detail of how he’d keep the tunnel depressurized at 100 Pa (!), how much it would cost, and what tech he’d use (just that he wouldn’t use vacuums as it would be far too expensive). For scale, the atmosphere at sea level is approximately 101,000 Pa.
Making sure the flow doesn’t choke was another, but that seems less problematic with his solution. I’m not as convicted that the steam and stuff will be able to be released and changed quickly tho.
I enjoyed reading the technical aspects and don’t see any issues that aren’t relatively easy to overcome. However I think some of his cost estimates are wildly unrealistic – especially land and rights of way. And as this is a kind of back of the envelope sketch, it’s highly unlikely he has anticipated every cost that would go into such a large, complex project.
Oh yes I think the technology is “there” to do this. But as pointed out above (or below, can’t follow ratings), this is just maglev with air for levitation, and a low pressure environment. And that’s where his cost projections fail. The amount of money to make the pressure that low is incredibly expensive. And maybe I missed it, but he hasn’t said how he’d do it if not with vacuums/pumps. I don’t even need to get into the costs of the land rights, let alone the politics of gaining those rights heh.
Somewhere else here I mention I’m disappointed that he didn’t attempt to compare costs with maglev. Maglev energy costs are maybe in the same ballpark as this hyperloop. Also, since he relies so much on pylons in his cost projections and since MAGLEVS ARE ACTUALLY IN USE NOW, it would be a helpful comparison in any analysis.
I thought his target psi and pricing of vacuum pumps seemed realistic ballpark-wise. Or even if it has to double, its still not a major cost among his estimates. He also mentions building fans into the vehicles on page 4.
he had this on page 26. How far off do you think he might be on cost estimates for vacuum pumps based on his air pressure target?
“Vacuum pumps will run continuously at various locations along the length of the tube to maintain the required pressure despite any poss ible leaks through the joint and stations. The expected cost of all required vacuum pumps is expected to be no more than $10 million USD.”
He’s much smarter than I am but I am calling bullshyt. Why not just make maglev train tunnels lower in pressure or something? Is it because he has solar panels to power the pumps that he expects the energy inputs to be negligible? I just don’t see how the cost of installation is that low, let alone the cost to have them running.
Also what happens if there is a failure with cabin pressure? Will there be masks that drop down to your lap? The insurance wild be very high I imagine, if he could find one at all.
yes, there will be masks, just like on an airplane.
Cue the Jetsons music. I’m still waiting for my flying car.
I’ve seen it before.
BART
Atlanta Metro
DC Subways
The Big Dig
It ALWAYS takes longer, costs more and in the end is worth every damn penny spent.
I would like to test system built to prove out some of this technology — in particular the stability of the air bearing. I know it works on an air hockey table but the re the pucks ain’t going 700 mph!
I am also concerned about safety of the evacuated tube. A kid with a rifle could hole it too easily, and thereby lose vacuum. How fast would the cars decelerate in that case? Might not be too pleasant for riders to be stuck in the tube between stations while repairs are made. How would they get moving again if they are stopped between linear motors? The steel tube needs to be surrounded with a thick concrete protective barrier.
Part of the advantage here is that it is not a vacuum, but merely a low pressure system. A bullet hole in the tube isn’t going to shut the system down. As for the capsules, they have retractable wheels and enough reserved battery power to complete their journeys without airflow.
Boo — after a hole in the tube occurs, it doesn’t matter whether the pressure is 1/5 atmosphere or 1/1000 atmosphere, the tube will come to atmospheric pressure in about the same time. Of course the bigger the hole the faster that will happen. A 1/2 inch diameter hole from a 40 caliber high velocity rifle round is going to bring the system up to atmospheric pressure very quickly locally. The vacuum pumps will be overwhelmed locally unless they are freaking massive. That’ll cause a pile up as cars slow to a crawl in the area of the breach.
Not saying this is a show stopper but it needs to be addressed.
How many people can it carry per trip? What is the headway? How much energy will it take to attain the design speeds as compared to conventional means of transportation?
It is true public transportation in which folks can go from the McJob in San Francisco to the McJob in Los Angeles or is it just another toy for the elite, like the Concorde?
Elon Musk is spouting a lot of ideas looking for investors recently. There’s a whiff of an Elon Musk financial bubble in all this.
Really his first priority should be getting the Tesla affordable for the masses. And creating the electric infrastructure to support its recharging.
There’s a phrase from the 1990s that comes to mind about this — “vaporware”.
Also keep in mind that until electricity is produced by alternative sources, Tesla produces more carbon than every type of hybrid.
Is this because the majority of grid power is coal-fueled? Even the worst coal reactor is far more efficient than an internal combustion engine.
That and battery manufacturing. Check it:
“In 26 states, a plug-in hybrid is the most climate-friendly option (narrowly outperforming all-electrics in 11 states, assuming 50:50 split between between driving on gas and electric for the plug-in hybrids), and in the other 24 states, a gas-powered car the best. All-electrics and plug-in hybrids are best in states with green electrical grids with substantial amounts of hydro, nuclear and wind power that produce essentially no carbon emissions. Conventional hybrids are best in states where electricity comes primarily from coal and natural gas.”
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-roadmap-to-climate-friendly-cars-2013-16318
Oh come on, you can’t make it affordable to the masses until you at least build it. And your question about McJobs, at least, has already been answered–San Francisco to LA for $20. That could be an empty promise, of course, but the only way to find out would be to invest at least some money in the project. And the only way to determine if it’s worth the risk is to do a thorough analysis of the proposal. It has nothing to do with whether Elon Musk’s name is attached to it, or the amount of vaporware in the 1990s.
It is striking that there is already a high-speed rail proposal being implemented in California over a similar route.
And the biggest headache in rail projects is acquisition of right-of-way.
But remember that the Musk proposal is a two-terminal express loop. It would have to be integrated fairly well with BART and LA transit systems to be an effective addition to the transportation system.
The .pdf includes plans for spurs to San Diego, Fresno, and Sacramento.
like Tesla is a bubble the bring it on.
What would it mean? It would mean that Republicans would start clamoring for it to be privatized (at a guaranteed profit).
I have to say, taking the G-train from Hangzhou to Shanghai (110 miles) changed my perspective on rail travel. Station to station in 45 minutes.
This is practical, in part, because Shanghai is a city of 16-20 million and Hangzhou is a relatively smaller Chinese city of 4-8 million.
However, could you imagine (already achieved, real world terms) Boston-New York-Philly trips taking 1 1/2 hours and 45 minutes, respectively?
My biggest problem with this proposal. No windows. As the amount of time that it takes grows more than 4-5 minutes, this can become a perceptual problem for passengers.
I had a long argument today with someone who came up with one reason after another for why it couldn’t work, before finally admitting that he was just claustrophobic. Of course, I also know people who won’t get in an airplane.