The administration made a judgment that there is no doubt that the Assad regime carried out the chemical attacks near Damascus on August 21st, and they announced that judgment to the world. Nonetheless, the British Parliament was not satisfied with the evidence. Or, at least, many members of parliament were unconvinced. Perhaps others simply didn’t want to get their country entangled in a civil war. But one thing is now clear, the case that has been presented to the public is not good enough. That puts the administration in a bad place, but they were hasty and they will now pay the price for that.
With news that President Obama could order unilateral strikes as soon as the United Nations weapons inspectors leave on Saturday, I’m concerned that the administration is getting ready to be hasty again. I hope they have some way of knowing what the inspectors are discovering about the nature of the chemical that was used, as well as the delivery system. We supposedly know a decent amount about what kinds of chemicals the Syrians have in their stockpiles, and we know what kind of artillery pieces they use. If we attack and then discover that neither the chemical agent nor the weaponry match what is in Syria’s inventory, we are going to look very bad.
I understand the importance of the principle the president is trying to uphold, and I’d like to be able to support him. But he’s way out on a limb right now. He doesn’t have support from the British, from NATO, from the United Nations, or from the Arab League. One reason is that people have difficulty believing that we can strike Syria in a very limited way and then walk away even as Assad remains in power and on the offensive on most fronts of the civil war. Another reason is the evidence presented so far is paltry.
The president wants to keep his word that the use of chemical weapons would be a game-changer and have severe consequences. I understand that. But patience is warranted here. With time, he can build a stronger case or avoid compounding an error if the administration’s initial judgments are wrong. If the UN inspectors provide evidence consistent with an attack by the regime, then most people will be satisfied that Assad deserves punishment. That’s the minimum prerequisite for an action that lacks all traditional modes of support.
Personally, I would rather sacrifice some of Obama’s credibility by doing nothing than by doing something in error or that leads to a deep morass. But, assuming that the administration feels compelled to keep its word and uphold the taboo on the use of chemical weapons, they still need to have a much better dossier than they’re presenting right now.
They need to relax a little bit. Don’t rush. If they are right, the case will get stronger.
