I have an alternative spin on Speaker Boehner’s incentive to toss the Tea Party aside and seek a deal with the Democrats on the continuing resolution and the debt ceiling. Begin with a simple fact: Boehner cannot get 218 votes from his own caucus for anything and he doesn’t want to cause a government shutdown or a default on our debts. How does he get out of this without capitulating to the Democrats, ripping his caucus apart, and imperiling his speakership?
There is no perfect solution, but what I would advise him to do if I were a savvy Republican (who doesn’t care about the well being of the country so much as the well being of the GOP) is to make a public show of breaking with the Tea Party and seeking the help of the Democrats, but then to take a bargaining position that the Democrats won’t accept. This is the inverse of what the president has done time and time again with the Republicans.
Boehner could thereby make it look like he was bucking his rabid base and that any government shutdown is the result of the Democrats being unreasonable.
Or, you know, Boehner could fall on his sword for the good of the country and make a deal that the Democrats would actually accept.
Like what though? What could he possibly offer fitting that criteria?
Anything short of what the Democrats would accept.
There’s plenty that fit that criteria. But when we’re thinking of a ven diagram for a moment between “anything short of what democrats would accept” overlapping with “what appears reasonable” I’m coming up with nothing.
Promise kept.
And currently the first comment under that article is:
Watch this positive action by the administration be either dismissed as too little, too late or completely ignored by the proud champions of the Left.
In a slightly different connection, I realized just yesterday WHY so many on the left continually have this sort of knee-jerk response: It is what they have been miseducated to think of as rational. It’s known as the “immanent critique” — the very core of “critical theory”. It works like this. You criticize everything against the ideals theoretically held by the person or group or society in question.
No account is taken of anything else: person, place, time, or any other circumstance. To call this a simplistic way of thinking is an understatement.
Such critiques are never made against the right wing, since the standards they uphold are considered odious anyway, and besides, they do uphold them. But against the left, well the left aspires to the pinnacle of moral perfection every minute, every hour, of the day. Therefore any shortfall must be courageously unmasked.
There is virtually nothing the president or anyone else could do, operating with a reasonable degree of prudence in the real world, that would come anywhere near satisfying this criterion. Hence the better the person, the more he will be criticized.
Now, if someone would organize a bunch of people to carry giant puppets through the streets and throw pig’s blood at the white house, that would be worthy of praise indeed! But not raising the minimum wage. Sorry. That is “too little, too late.”
Lefties, falling short of perfection is not necessarily a sign of hypocrisy or incompetence. It is very commonly a sign that one is functioning in real-world conditions in which there are many conflicting goals and many obstacles.
I really never understood the giant puppet thing.
Well, thank you! Now I finally get what has been driving me bonkers for so long.
Not that understanding the lunacy will leave me any less frustrated with its consequences.
And I also don’t get the giant puppets.
By the way, you got me thinking — not to mention looking up “immanent critique” online, for which I and my headache thank you — and I’ve quoted you in a subsequent diary at the Motley Moose (with full attribution and linking, natch) — hope you don’t mind.
No, I don’t mind at all. Share the love!
I’m a little confused about Boehner’s status if he passed these bills with mostly Dems. If he does so and loses the confidence of his caucus, and there’s a “coup”, would he immediately have to step down as Speaker? Or would he serve as Speaker for the rest of this Congress?
Because if he is forced out by the hard-right members, wouldn’t they try and strip him of his powers as Speaker before he’s able to bring any of these bills to the floor? The whole process of that is opaque to me.
Yes, this question keeps coming up, and the answer is that the Republicans could only replace Boehner if more of them voted for an alternative than whatever the number of Democrats.
What does that mean?
A member can use a point of privilege to instigate the replacement of an officer of the House, whether it be the doorkeeper or the Speaker. But it requires a majority vote for an alternative, not a mere plurality.
Pelosi can instruct the Democrats to support Boehner, and that group plus the Boehner loyalists can keep him in power. In other words, Pelosi can make a deal with Boehner by promising to protect him. I wrote about this possibility last week.
Pelosi can also withhold the support of the Democrats and allow a coup. That would be a two-step process.
First, all the Democrats would vote for Pelosi and the Republicans would split between Boehner and his challenger. No one would get a majority, and the top two vote-getters would square off against each other. Most likely, the Republican challenger would get more votes than Boehner in the first round and more votes than Pelosi in the second round.
It would look something like this:
First vote
Boehner- 43
Hensarling- 190
Pelosi-200
[Majority= 217, due to two vacancies)
Second vote
Hensarling- 233
Pelosi- 200
The above would be the coup vote. To avoid it, assuming that low level of support for Boehner, Pelosi would need to provide Boehner with 174 out of 200 Democratic votes.
Thanks for the info. I wonder about the plausibility of the first scenario (Boehner keeps his Speakership with Pelosi’s votes). If Boehner’s loyalists vote for him it seems as though they will be committing mass suicide just to keep him in power until the end of this term. They’ll all get primaried as GOP traitors of the highest order – especially Boehner – and I doubt many of them will be back in the next Congress.
Maybe they’ll see it as worthwhile in lieu of defaulting on our debt, etc. They would be heroes of the republic, to some extent – sacrificing their careers to save the country from true disaster. And I assume all of them would be able to vacuum up lobbyist money for the rest of their lives.
But I wonder if they’d really be able to convince themselves to walk the plank. If they do, it won’t be until the very last moment of truth – enough to give us all major heartburn and panic attacks. Christ.
Boehner’s core of support would come from New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and some California Republicans. Most of them would be okay in a primary if their sin was saving the financial sector..
Not sure how much safety he would have in his home state. The Tea Party here is brewing up a potential insurrection since the state party passed over their favored darling for State Party Chair.
Well, we’re talking about Boehner facing a coup because he let the entire house vote on a CR from the Senate against the Hastert Rule. If he did, and the Republicans are trying to replace him with someone who won’t, the Democrats have every reason to vote against the resolution to boot Boehner. Pelosi would no doubt try to extract some concessions from Boehner but the two of them would have a pretty compelling shared interest in making a deal (given that the alternative is political Siberia for Boehner and catastrophe for the country, which Pelosi doesn’t want.)
Voting to retain Boehner as speaker isn’t going to get Republicans from moderate districts in much trouble. Certainly less trouble than an extended government shutdown or debt default would.
I just don’t see how Boehner’s going to get kicked out for keeping the country from going over the cliff. He has every reason to wait as long as he possibly can, but if we actually get to the edge pulling back is his best option and I expect him to take it. He might let a shutdown go on for a week or two – that’s not going to be a catastrophe but he won’t allow a debt default or an extended shutdown.
In parliamentary terms, Boehner is the leader of a coalition consisting of the Republicans and the Tea Party. If he ditches the Tea Party and gets the support of the Democrats then he will have traded an insane coalition partner for a sane one.
He’s not listening to you:
Boehner Moves Closer To Threatening Government Shutdown Over Obamacare
There’s that old saying, “you can lead a horse to water…”
…”but a drunk won’t go near water.”