I wonder what Charlie Cook thinks about the numbers the GOP is getting in North Carolina. The Tarheel State may be a purple state, but it’s still a southern state that has a lot in common with other southern states like South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, where there are going to be several Senate elections next year. I don’t think generic congressional numbers mean much at this point in the cycle. I don’t think we can learn much from self-reported independents. What we can learn is that the GOP is cratering in some of their cultural strongholds. With districts so strongly gerrymandered, the only way the Dems can win the midterm elections is if we see nationally what we are already seeing in North Carolina. People are changing their minds rapidly and districts that were drawn to be safe, may no longer be so.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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North Carolina’s numbers (hope they’re real) are backlash against the hamhanded overreach of the re-elected North Carolina General Assembly and the the Kock-funded puppet Art Pope’s parrot of a governor, Pat McCrory. Everyone in NC is now clear that Art Pope, who was given a government job, is McCrory’s minder for the Kochs. And the corruption in GOP governance has been stunning, blatant, and well-covered by the state’s media. Even GOP knee-jerk media like the Gaston Gazette are losing patience with the GOP gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight in Raleigh.
This will definitely affect the legislature in North Carolina. Will is be enough to take back the legislature? That is the huge question, given the experience of the folks in Wisconsin.
Will it affect the Congressional seats? It is all up in the air right now. The overreach of the Watauga County GOP members of the board of elections could very well put a huge crimp in the GOP voter suppression strategy, which has now become transparent. Enough change there a a good candidate, could Virginia Foxx be in trouble? On the other side, will McIntyre continue to beat a Republican by being a Republican on most votes? Or will that district vote for a “real Republican”?
If North Carolina becomes a bellwether because of all of the shenanigans in the General Assembly, that same pheonomenon might (at least that is the great Blue Hope) Michigan and Wisconsin and possibly Ohio.
In South Carolina, the State Department of Revenue computers were hacked over a year ago and the records of all taxpayers in the state, their Social Security numbers, some number of their back account numbers, and so one were copied, raising the spectre of identity theft. Nikki Haley has been campaigning on her “swift response” but will that event linger in the background of voters’ minds on election day and produce some upsets. Vincent Shaheen hopes so.
And in Georgia, there is the zoo that is the Republican primary candidates for US Senate and the candidacy of Michelle Nunn. Will there be change there?
But above all is the uncertainty of the experience that people actually have with Obamacare from January through November of 2014. What happens when large numbers of voters realize that the GOP has lied to them for five years. That is the big issue in Cook’s analysis. What happens when what voters think will happen either does or doesn’t happen?
And will there be 2010 buyers remorse in more states than just the obvious ones of Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina? Any bets on Texas?
It’s promising, and North Carolina and Michigan are possibilities.
I doubt that Wisconsin will change much. The difference is the media. Apparently, as you say, the media in NC is hammering the Republicans. The media in Wisconsin is completely in the tank for Walker and his minions, according to Wisconsinite Kossaks over on the GOS.
I would say the only hope for Wisconsin is that people see Obamacare working in next-door Minnesota, but hitting all sorts of obstruction in Wisconsin.
Won’t be because the Wisconsin media reports it, though.
Don’t forget Florida and Pennsylvania, where the governors are incredibly unpopular.
Smacks of some of your classic electoral politics comments. Great one, TD.
The risk of gerrymandering, of course, is that in order to maximize the number of districts in which you have a majority, you have to spread that majority more thin. Certainly, your majorities will be thinner than the other party, as you are packing theirs in the minimum number of districts. This maximizes the danger of being wiped out in a wave election. The Repubs have not overdone this. Many of them are still holding districts with, like, 65%. But gerrymandering always trades depth for breadth. It can easily transform a big loss into a devastating loss.
I wish Dems had offered a better alternative than Terry McAuliffe. North Carolina is a cynicism-inducing state right now.
McAuliffe is Virginia, not North Carolina. That election is in a month.
So do we. But looking at the bright side he’s pulling away from Cooch.
Top Nevada GOPer: 2014 Will Be ‘Great’ For Party Because Minorities, Young People Won’t Vote
The top Republican in Nevada’s state assembly predicted earlier this week that his party will triumph in 2014 in part because minority and young voters will be more apt home in a non-presidential year.
State Assembly Minority Leader Pat Hickey (R) made the comments in an interview with conservative talk radio host Dan Mason.
“We have some real opportunities in 2014,” Hickey said Tuesday. “This is a great year in an off-presidential election. Seemingly no Democrat on the top of the ticket against [Gov. Brian] Sandoval. No Harry Reid. Probably where we had a million voters turn out in 2012, we’ll have like 700,000. A lot of minorities, a lot of younger people will not turn out in a non-presidential. It’s a great year for Republicans.”
Hickey told The Huffinton Post on Wednesday that he was merely discussing historical trends in off-year elections.
“What I was trying to say, in Nevada, historically, off presidential years have historically been lower turnout models,” Hickey said, while defending his record on issues important to the Hispanic community.
“We certainly in Nevada are encouraged by Governor Sandoval, being a Hispanic sitting governor who is enjoying broad support,” Hickey said. “Persons like myself in the Legislature supported a resolution for comprehensive immigration reform and driver’s license cards. That is helping the standing of Republicans in Nevada, especially in state legislative races.”
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/top-nevada-goper-2014-will-be-great-year-because-minorities-yo
ung-people-will-not-turn-out-audio
Bellweather = bellwether?
School board lifts heavily-criticized ban on Ellison’s `Invisible Man’
By Arturo Garcia
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 20:44 EDT
The board of education for Randolph County, North Carolina voted on Wednesday to rescind its ban of Ralph Ellison’s book Invisible Man, the Asheboro Courier-Tribune reported.
The 6-1 vote reverses the board’s Sept. 16 decision to remove the novel from school libraries in the district. The ban was instigated by a parent’s complaint about its content.
“I didn’t find any literary value,” board member Gary Mason said at the time. “I’m for not allowing it to be available.” The Courier-Tribune reported that he was the only board member on Wednesday who voted to uphold the ban.
According to the Los Angeles Times, the book’s removal prompted at least two offers of free copies of Invisible Man for students, as well as an increase in orders from the county library. Readers of the Courier-Tribune also voiced their complaints on its website.
“Yet another reason why the South will never rise,” one reader posted at the time. “The ignorant squeaky wheels hold others back. Invisible Man is an incredibly important book, not just for its historical importance, but for its literary merits. If anyone had suggested sensible gun laws or taxing churches, the same yahoos who wish to ban a book would have been enraged and threatened revolution and/or secession.”
Both the Times and the Courier-Tribune reported that board members have refused to comment on the initial ban.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/09/25/school-board-lifts-heavily-criticized-ban-on-ellisons-invisibl
e-man/
So Randolph County NC can still be shamed.
Who knew?
Is it time to revive the 50 state strategy yet? Or do we need to watch a winnable election cycle turn red because the D establishment only cares about getting paid.
They’re still keeping their powder dry.