David Corn explains why the president is very unlikely to yield to the Republicans’ demands that he negotiate over raising the debt ceiling. I think the basic difference between today and 2011 is that the president doesn’t have to worry about getting reelected, so he’s willing to call the Republicans’ bluff. Back in 2011, a default would have probably made him a one-term president. Today, a default would still be terrible for the country, but he at least has the option of letting it happen. If he takes extraordinary steps to avoid a default, he has less to worry about in terms of backlash. Plus, the Tea Party fervor has faded, the deficit has been coming down, and the mandate from the 2010 elections has been superseded by the mandate from the 2012 elections.
It’s not at all clear that Speaker Boehner can raise the debt ceiling with only Republican votes. With two vacancies, the House has 433 members, of which 233 are Republicans. For a bill to pass it needs 217 votes. That means that Boehner cannot afford to lose more than 16 members of his caucus.
Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.), who opposes any debt-ceiling increase at all, estimated there were 10 to 15 Republicans “that feel as strongly as I do,” and predicted GOP leaders did not have the votes to pass the legislation.
Rep. Walter “Freedom Fries” Jones doesn’t just oppose the Christmas tree legislation that Boehner is concocting to attract Republican votes. Rep. Jones opposes raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances, and says he has potentially as many as 15 colleagues who feel the same way. If he’s right, Boehner can’t lose any additional votes, which seems like a stretch if he is forced to ask for a bill without any concessions from the president.
But the Republicans are operating under the assumption that the president will back down.
Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) made clear that Republicans were not operating under any illusions that this initial offer would remain intact, however. He described it more as a wish list.
“We’re obviously going to throw out what we want. Obviously that’s not going to be acceptable to the other party, most likely,” he said. “It puts our marker down.”
But Simpson said the one-year delay of ObamaCare is a mandatory component for Republicans.
“When Obama says he’s not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling, that’s just baloney,” Simpson said. “Ultimately, he will.”
I think David Corn has made a compelling case that the president actually won’t negotiate. I’m not sure what he will do if it comes down the last moment and Congress hasn’t extended the debt ceiling, but it seems clear that he’s prepared to tell the Republicans’ to stuff it. Unfortunately, the Republicans are not yet convinced of that, so the hostage-taking will continue.
I hope someone is readying the SWAT team.
